Currently, the epidemic prevention situation in India is becoming increasingly severe. As of 17:00 local time on April 29, India had a total of 31,787 confirmed cases. On March 24, when India decided to launch the first round of lockdown orders, there were only 536 confirmed cases in the country; that is to say, this one In the past few months, this number has increased nearly 60 times. Affected by this, Indian cotton seems to be excluded from the global market.
India’s cotton exports plummeted, and the textile industry laid off 10 million people
According to the Agricultural Products Futures Network on April 30 According to reports, India will be forced to reduce cotton exports as the spread of the global new coronavirus affects clothing demand and China’s large export orders for European and American textiles are postponed. In this regard, Kotak, India’s largest cotton exporter, said that India’s cotton export volume in 2019-20 may be about 3.5 million bales, 700,000 bales lower than the industry target. It is understood that the cotton exporter had previously suspended cotton exports to China. However, after China’s epidemic prevention situation was brought under control, the Indian Cotton Association announced on February 28 that it would reopen the cotton market to China and signed an export agreement with China for 800,000 bales of cotton. contract.
However, in the face of rising confirmed cases, India decided to launch a second round of “city closures” and announced that it would continue to extend nationwide quarantine measures until May 3 to contain the new coronavirus. spread rapidly. Now, not only India’s cotton exports are languishing, but India’s entire textile industry has begun to complain. According to the Garment Manufacturers Association of India (CMAI), if India does not take assistance measures in terms of wage subsidies or resumption of work plans, it will lead to a significant reduction in jobs in India’s entire textile industry, and the total number of layoffs may be as high as 10 million.
Since the textile industry is a vital economic pillar of India, once it collapses, it will set off an economic storm that will shake the earth. . The Reserve Bank of India also admitted a few days ago that due to the impact of the epidemic, it will be difficult for the Indian economy to achieve a growth rate of 5% in 2020. This means that the Indian economy, which has previously set a record of “six consecutive years of decline”, may fall into an unprecedented and extremely bad economic predicament.
U.S. cotton import prices have risen! 84,000 tons of Brazilian cotton are coming to China quickly
It is worth mentioning that as one of the world’s largest cotton importers, China estimates that my country’s total cotton imports in 2020 are expected to exceed 2 million tons. At the same time, China is also the largest buyer of Indian cotton. However, my country’s cotton import channels are diverse, and Indian cotton still has many competitors in the Chinese market.
Data show that in March 2020, my country’s cotton imports amounted to 200,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 32%, and Brazilian cotton imported 84,000 tons. China’s import volume ranked first, with the United States ranking second and India ranking third. In addition, the average cotton import price in March was US$1,773/ton, an increase of US$32 or 1.8% from January to February. Among them, the average import prices of the United States, India, and Brazil increased by 6%, 1.5%, and 1.9% respectively.
In addition, analysts pointed out that due to the cumulative sales of 1.162 million tons of cotton reserves in my country last year, plus the cumulative rotation of 8.45 million tons in the three years from 2015 to 2018, my country’s cotton destocking task has basically been completed. , it is expected that domestic cotton production will rebound slightly this year. By then, as self-produced and sold, China’s cotton imports will decline, and Indian cotton’s market share in China will also shrink further. </p
