Before the May Day holiday, news of resumption of work and production continued to come from Europe, the United States and China. In addition, the market rekindled expectations for the OPEC+ joint production cuts that will be implemented in May. International oil prices stopped falling and rebounded, boosting the confidence of bulls in the market. Downstream The polyester factory stocked a large amount of stock, and the accident in Ningbo Liwan during the period boosted the local spot market in the short term, resulting in more active market transactions in Ningbo. The spot basis was 10-20 yuan higher than the market. The PTA period continued to recover, but as The rebound of crude oil has been hindered, PTA spot and 09 contracts have stagnated, and the enthusiasm for polyester orders has faded again. It is expected that if crude oil does not improve further in May, there will be little willingness for downstream polyester to continue to receive orders.
A brief summary of the later disk operation views is as follows:
High inventory. Driven by profits, PTA load remains high. However, due to the incident, downstream polyester production continues to be poor. PTA social inventory continues to climb to historical highs. Domestic social inventory has reached around 3.5516 million tons, and the gap between supply and demand remains at 10,000 tons per day. Above, it is expected that social inventory will reach a new high in May-June. Although many of them are currently locked in futures warehouses, they will have to come out and return to the spot market sooner or later. It is difficult to see a destocking in the short term unless the processing fees are reduced to the edge of cost or even at a loss.
High profits. Crude oil prices continued to set new low-price records in recent years in April, and even produced unprecedented negative prices. With OPEC+ officially starting to cut production in May, US shale oil production passively declining, and countries in Europe and the United States gradually relaxing control measures, the huge scissor gap between supply and demand for crude oil in the early stage is shrinking rapidly, and the resumption of work and production in Europe and the United States is gradually relaxed, and the surplus situation will improve month-on-month. , under such expectations, crude oil rebounded sharply during the Labor Day holiday, and demand concerns resurfaced after the holiday. After oil prices doubled, the rebound temporarily stalled. If crude oil cannot rebound effectively in July and August, then the future The processing fee for the contract is quite good. Under high profit conditions, it is difficult for the supply side to provide good support for the price, but it is negative for the price.
When the futures market is at premium, it is naturally suitable to be long on spot goods and short on futures.
Canceled in September. If the event affects demand, a large number of warehouse receipts may expire, lose their financial attributes, and eventually flow into the spot market, so there may be delivery pressure in September.
To sum up, in the absence of a major rebound in crude oil, processing fees generally remain at a good level, and good profits limit the 09 contract increase; supply is guaranteed with good profits, and it is difficult to recover during the superimposed demand period, and high The inventory problem is also difficult to resolve; the futures market is at a premium to spot goods, which is naturally suitable for long spot and short futures; warehouse receipts are forced to be canceled when they expire in September, and delivery pressure is high.
From these aspects, although the absolute price is low and is also a record low, the real rise of the TA09 contract has not yet seen a positive driver. Although the month-on-month improvement is better, the price center of gravity has shifted upward during the period. It will still be a tortuous process, so be cautious about the current increase in market prices. </p
