In the stock market right now, fear of missing out on a rally outweighs fears of economic problems. However, Goldman Sachs said pessimism will soon take over and push the S&P 500 down nearly 20% in the next three months. David Kostin, the bank’s chief U.S. stock strategist, released a report saying that in the past few weeks during the COVID-19 pandemic, fiscal and monetary policy support has allowed the U.S. economy to successfully avoid a financial crisis, but there is still a long way to go before the economy can return to normal. . It warned that financial, economic and political risks make the outlook for the U.S. stock market bleak, with the S&P 500 index likely to fall to 2,400 points in the next three months before rebounding to 3,000 points by the end of the year. David Kostin pointed out that most investors have not been able to cash in on the 31% rise in the S&P 500 since the low on March 23. He noted that with most mutual funds underperforming the market since the bear market lows and long-short/macro hedge funds as a whole returning only single digits, investors may be under pressure to chase gains.
On Monday night, market news said that Saudi Arabia will reduce production by an additional 1 million barrels per day in June. Saudi Arabia’s June output will then be 7.492 million barrels per day, compared with the official target of 8.5 million barrels per day under the recently reached OPEC production reduction agreement. Saudi Arabia told Aramco it would cut crude oil production in May if possible. If Saudi Arabia fulfills its commitment to voluntarily and unilaterally cut production by 1 million barrels per day, the country’s crude oil production will fall to the lowest level in 18 years (since mid-2002).
That night, following Saudi Arabia, two more major oil-producing countries expressed their willingness to reduce production additionally. According to the Kuwait News Agency (KUNA), Kuwait will reduce production by an additional 80,000 barrels per day under the OPEC+ agreement commitments. UAE Energy Minister Mazrouei said that the UAE will voluntarily reduce production by an additional 100,000 barrels per day in June.
After the news was announced, U.S. and Burundi oil prices violently rose in the short term, but then began to fall back. The main July contracts in the two cities both fell by more than 5% during the session, and closed slightly higher. , but still fell across the board. In night trading, the price of WTI crude oil futures for June delivery fell 60 cents, or 2.43%, to close at $24.14 per barrel. The price of London Brent crude oil futures for July delivery fell by US$1.34 to close at US$29.63 per barrel, a decrease of 4.33%. Early this morning, the WTI crude oil futures July contract opened up 1.6% to US$25.5 per barrel.
The main crude oil futures contract SC2006 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.74% in night trading at 242 yuan/barrel.
Analysts believe that Saudi Arabia’s voluntary production reduction is very symbolic. Many people believe that the output of 8 million barrels per day is a red line that cannot be crossed. Saudi Arabia’s taking this step shows that the country urgently feels the need to stabilize the crude oil market. Earlier in the day, Saudi Arabia also announced a series of austerity policies, including a significant increase in value-added tax and the elimination of civil servant subsidies.
Christian Malek, head of EMEA oil and gas research at JP Morgan, said Saudi Arabia may further cut production to balance the oil market. The country is taking action to cut production to contain the financial pain it is facing, so he would not be surprised to see the scale of the reduction reach 6 million barrels per day.
According to data from Johns Hopkins University, as of 05:50 on May 12, Beijing time, there were more than 4.16 million cases of new coronavirus infection worldwide and more than 28.5 deaths. 10,000 cases, 285,307. The number of confirmed cases of new coronavirus in the United States has exceeded 1.34 million, at 1,345,307, and the number of deaths has exceeded 80,000, at 80,239. Before being diagnosed with COVID-19, a South Korean man had been active in many bars, nightclubs and other places in Itaewon, Yongsan District, Seoul, causing cluster infections. Related confirmed cases spread across the country and caused infections in the military. This made South Korea, which had already pressed the resumption button, tense up again.
Crude oil may stabilize and rebound in the short term
Regarding the early stabilization and rebound of oil prices, An Ziwei, a senior analyst at Orient Securities Derivatives Research Institute, believes that, The main driving force is that the economic restart in Europe and the United States and the implementation of production cuts have led to rising market expectations for a positive supply and demand pattern. On the demand side, many European countries have successively announced the gradual lifting of quarantine and blockade measures, and many states in the United States have also announced the gradual lifting of quarantine and blockade measures. This has undoubtedly given a great boost to market confidence. An Ziwei said that the lifting of lockdowns in Europe and the United States is conducive to the recovery of gasoline consumption, and the demand for jet fuel is still sluggish. Judging from the data, traffic conditions in major European and American cities have improved. Driving is the preferred mode of travel to maintain social distance after the end of the lockdown. The decline in U.S. gasoline inventories for two consecutive weeks is also evidence of marginal improvement in demand.
“However, judging from China’s experience, the recovery of demand cannot be achieved overnight. The congestion situation in the morning and evening peaks in major domestic cities is close to normal levels, but the congestion during off-peak hours It is still far below normal levels, indicating that due to changes in travel concepts, some non-essential travel is still restricted.Demand will be dragged down by external demand, and it is doubtful whether the marginal improvement in consumption can be sustained in May. “Wang Siran believes that copper will still face some pressure from the supply side and potential purchase and storage possibilities, but demand is still the key, and the substitution of scrap copper will increase as overseas imports recover and the refined scrap price gap expands. The current copper price and European and American stock markets are both The rebound to near the important pressure level is also the starting point of the decline since the outbreak of the overseas epidemic, and it is expected to be difficult to break through. In his view, the overall non-ferrous metals may have peaked, and it is recommended to treat it with caution, and lower the purchase price of forward orders (more than 3 months) for downstream hedging. The proportion of value-insured.
Zheng Jingyang also said that the sustainability of the future rise in non-ferrous metal prices is questionable. According to him, first, the strong domestic consumption may not be sustained, although consumption in May is still will perform better, but due to the decline in foreign trade and the gradual end of the rush period, consumption may gradually decline. Second, on the supply side, the mining side and overseas scrap dismantling are gradually recovering, and the rise in aluminum prices has led to improvements in profits of aluminum plants. The supply pressure is expected to increase. In addition, the recent strong performance of domestic non-ferrous metal prices has led to a continued rise in domestic and foreign price comparisons. Aluminum also rarely has an import window, so it is expected that the supply of imported goods will increase after May. At the same time, market sentiment may also fluctuate. Although there are currently expectations for macro stimulus policies, on the one hand, the early resumption of work in European and American countries may lead to a recurrence of the epidemic and impact market sentiment. On the other hand, there are also uncertainties in international trade relations, so the upward pressure on nonferrous metals is gradually increasing.
The number of confirmed cases worldwide has exceeded 4.16 million, and clusters of infections have reappeared in South Korea
According to data from Johns Hopkins University, as of 05:50 on May 12, Beijing time, there were more than 4.16 million cases of new coronavirus infections worldwide and more than 285,000 deaths, totaling 285,307. The number of confirmed cases of new coronavirus in the United States exceeded 1.34 million cases, 1,345,307, and more than 80,000 deaths, 80,239.
On the afternoon of May 11, local time, Trump said at the White House press conference, The United States’ COVID-19 testing capabilities are constantly increasing, and the number of people tested for COVID-19 in the United States is expected to exceed 10 million by the end of this week. Trump announced that he will allocate $1 billion to states to support testing efforts.
On May 11, a South Korean man had been active in many bars, nightclubs and other places in Itaewon, Yongsan District, Seoul before he was diagnosed with COVID-19, causing a cluster of infections. Related confirmed cases spread across the country, and caused an outbreak in the military. Infection. This made South Korea, which had already pressed the resumption button, tense up its nerves again. According to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, South Korea’s Central Epidemic Prevention Countermeasures Headquarters reported on the 11th that among the confirmed cases of infection, the number of cases in Seoul was 51 , 21 cases in Gyeonggi Province, 7 cases in Incheon City, 5 cases in Chungcheongbuk Province, and 1 case each in Busan and Jeju Province. Due to the wide spread of cases, epidemic prevention and control is becoming more and more difficult.
According to data from the French Public Health Agency, as of 14:00 on May 11, the number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in France increased to 139,519, with 456 new cases within 24 hours. The number of deaths in hospitals increased to 16,820, and the number of deaths in disabled nursing homes increased to 9,823. The total number of deaths reached 26,643, with 263 new cases.
According to Indian media reports, on May 11, there were 57 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the Tarawi slum in Mumbai, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 916. There were no new cases that day. The number of deaths increased, bringing the total number of deaths to 29. Tarawi slum is the largest slum in India and one of the largest in Asia. On April 1, the first confirmed case of new coronavirus pneumonia appeared in Talawi. Due to the high population density and poor sanitary conditions, epidemic prevention is difficult. The epidemic in the Talawi slum has caused widespread concern in the local area.
According to the latest data released by the Italian Civil Protection Department, as of 18:00 local time on May 11, Italy currently has 82,488 confirmed cases of COVID-19, with a total of 30,739 deaths and a total of 30,739 recoveries. There are 106,587 cases, with a total of 219,814 confirmed cases. Compared with 18:00 on May 10, there were 744 new confirmed cases, 179 new deaths, and 1,401 new cured cases. The number of new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Italy is the lowest since March 4. </p
