Under the premise of overseas resumption of work and crude oil production reduction, oil prices have been supported, but the short-term excess pressure of crude oil may be difficult to alleviate, and there is still pressure for oil prices to rebound; with the support of device maintenance and demand for Asian PX, domestic PX supply and demand margins have improved, but in Prices are still suppressed under the pressure of high inventory, and overall cost-side support is limited. In terms of supply and demand, there are no signs of improvement in the terminal. In May, the pressure on polyester inventory accumulation is relatively high, and the contradiction between PTA supply and demand is still prominent. The accumulation inventory is expected to be maintained, and processing fees are expected to be reduced. Overall, May was still suppressed by the “three highs” (high production, high inventory, and high profits), and the price center of gravity fluctuated with crude oil. Strategically, PTA as a whole still mainly focuses on short allocation; below 3100, long orders in far months can be arranged. However, PTA’s “three high problems” have not been solved, and the upward drive is not strong. It mainly follows the upward shift of the cost end’s focus. Before the supply and demand of PTA improves significantly, TA can still pay attention to counter arbitrage during the intertemporal period.
PTA overall fluctuated at a low level in April. At the beginning of the month, due to the expected reduction in crude oil production and the absolute prices of various varieties in the polyester industry chain were at historical lows, the Tomb Sweeping Day holiday terminal triggered a wave of enthusiasm for bargain hunting, and PTA futures rebounded around 400 yuan/ton; however, PTA’s gains were limited by high production starts, high inventory, and high profits. ; In the middle and late half of the year, dragged down by another new low in oil prices, PTA fell again to a low of 3,128 yuan/ton.
Cost-side support is limited
From the upstream cost side, due to the impact of the epidemic and the global economic downturn, the current crude oil consumption is poor. The oversupply was serious, and oil prices plummeted in April. At the end of the month, with overseas plans to resume production, Brent oil showed signs of stabilizing. However, the sharp collapse in demand resulted in a serious excess of global crude oil and tight storage capacity. Although OPEC+ and U.S. crude oil have plans to reduce production, The pressure of excess crude oil may be difficult to alleviate in the short term, and there is still uncertainty about whether normal work can be resumed in the later period. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels in May.
From the perspective of raw material PX, except for the brief maintenance of some devices at the beginning of the month, the overall domestic PX load in April was above 80%. In March, domestic PX output was 1.72 million tons, imports were 1.25 million tons, and the accumulated inventory was 560,000 tons. Ton or so, PX social inventory has expanded to the lowest level in recent years. In May, there were several equipment overhauls in Asia, involving a production capacity of about 2.4 million tons. However, there were not many PTA overhauls in May. It is expected that the supply and demand of PX may improve marginally, but the price of PX is suppressed under the pressure of high inventory, and the absolute price is still higher than that of crude oil. fluctuation.
PTA maintains inventory accumulation expectations
From the perspective of supply and demand, PTA processing fees were good in April, about 700 yuan/ton, resulting in domestic The average monthly load of PTA is at a high level near 90% (capacity base 52.33 million tons); while the overall load of polyester has rebounded to around 85.6%, and PTA still has a certain degree of accumulation (about 280,000 tons) compared to polyester. Judging from weekly inventory, as of April 24, PTA social inventory was close to 3.4 million tons. From the perspective of May, because the current PTA processing fee level is still above 650, there are not many maintenance plans in May, and the PTA supply is still relatively large; in terms of demand, terminal orders have not improved in April, and there are still no signs of improvement in May. There are signs of improvement, but weaving has been forced to stop more during the May Day holiday due to inventory pressure. It is expected that polyester accumulation pressure will be obvious in May, and with the current poor filament profits, we cannot rule out the possibility of a reduction in polyester load in May. Overall , the contradiction between PTA supply and demand is still prominent in May, the accumulation of inventory is expected, and the processing fee is expected to be reduced.
There is still no sign of improvement in terminal demand, and polyester pressure may appear
The weaving end most directly reflects the changes in terminal demand, and foreign trade orders are in large quantities was cancelled, the weaving start-up load began to adjust for the second time in late March. There was a large-scale parking holiday during the Qingming Festival. Even though the start-up rate rebounded after the holiday, the overall start-up rate remained at the level of 50-60%. At the end of April, it faced another 50%. After a short holiday, weaving starts are expected to drop again. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, domestic and foreign sales data of textile and apparel dropped sharply from January to March 2020. From January to March, the cumulative retail sales of domestic clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 225.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.2%; of which, the retail sales in March were 68.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.8%, which was slightly larger than the decline in February, indicating that The domestic epidemic situation improved slightly in March, but textile and apparel consumption is still sluggish. In the first quarter, the total exports of the textile, clothing and apparel industry were 55 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.4%; of which exports in March were US$21.28 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 17.9%. Looking at the second quarter, the overseas epidemic continues, many countries are still under lockdown, and protection has not yet been relaxed. The impact of the epidemic may be longer than expected, and the demand for textile and apparel in the second quarter is still not optimistic.
Under the premise of overseas resumption of work and crude oil production reduction, oil prices have been supported, but the short-term excess pressure of crude oil may be difficult to alleviate, and there is still pressure for oil prices to rebound; with the support of device maintenance and demand for Asian PX, domestic PX supply and demand margins Improvement, but prices are still suppressed under high inventory pressure, and overall cost-side support is limited. In terms of supply and demand, there are no signs of improvement in the terminal. In May, polyester inventory accumulation pressure is relatively large, and the contradiction between PTA supply and demand is still prominent. The accumulation inventory is expected to be maintained, and processing fees are expected to be reduced. Overall, May was still suppressed by the “three highs” (high production, high inventory, and high profits), and the price center of gravity fluctuated with crude oil. Strategically, PTA as a whole still mainly focuses on short allocation; below 3100, long orders in far months can be arranged. However, PTA’s “three high problems” have not been solved, and the upward drive is not strong. It mainly follows the upward shift of the center of gravity of the cost end. Before the supply and demand of PTA improves significantly, TA can still pay attention to counter arbitrage during the intertemporal period. </p