The prosperity monitoring results of the China Textile Federation Circulation Branch show that in April 2020, the prosperity index of the national textile and apparel professional market managers was 50.59, down 0.65 percentage points from 51.24 in March; the prosperity index of the professional market merchants was 48.92, down from 3 The monthly reading was 51.18, a decrease of 2.26 percentage points.
1. Manager’s prosperity and merchants Prosperity declined
Data show that in April, the various prosperity indexes of national textile and apparel professional market managers and merchants declined.
1. Managers’ prosperity index dropped by 0.65 percentage points
Chart 1 Manager Index List
Data source: China Textile Federation Circulation Branch Statistics
From the perspective of the manager’s climate index, among the total index, the manager’s climate index in April was 50.59, down 0.65 percentage points from 51.24 in March; the business environment index was 48.71, down from 51.24 in March. 48.06, an increase of 0.65 percentage points.
Among the sub-indexes, the total operating volume index was 50.97, down 0.32 percentage points from 51.29 in March; the logistics shipment volume index was 50.97, down 0.32 percentage points from 51.29 in March. percentage points; the passenger flow index was 51.29, the same as in March; the opening rate index was 51.94, down 1.29 percentage points from 53.23 in March; the rental index was 47.42, down 0.97 percentage points from 48.39 in March; the e-commerce sales index was 50.97 , a decrease of 0.97 percentage points from 51.94 in March.
2. The merchant prosperity index dropped by 2.26 percentage points
Chart 2 Merchant Index List
Data source: China Textile Federation Circulation Branch Statistics
From the perspective of merchant climate index, among the total index, the merchant climate index in April was 48.92, a decrease of 2.26 percentage points from 51.18 in March; the business environment index was 47.55, an increase of 1.12 percentage points from 46.43 in March. percentage point.
Among the sub-indexes, the sales volume index was 47.76, down 5.60 percentage points from 53.36 in March; the average selling price index was 46.57, down 4.55 percentage points from 51.12 in March; The profitability index was 47.69, down 5.60 percentage points from 53.29 in March; the comprehensive cost index was 50.07, up 1.40 percentage points from 48.67 in March; the inventory index was 51.26, up 1.05 percentage points from 50.21 in March; e-commerce sales The index was 50.14, down 0.28 percentage points from 50.42 in March.
2. Data analysis
1. The professional market has basically resumed work , retaliatory consumption has not yet arrived
In April, the proportion of total operating volume of the selected market was flat at 38.71%, an increase of 9.68 percentage points from 29.03% in March; the volume of selected logistics shipments was flat The proportion of merchants choosing to keep the customer flow constant was 38.71%, an increase of 9.68 percentage points from 29.03% in March; the proportion of choosing merchants with the same customer flow rate was 35.48%, an increase of 6.45 percentage points from 29.03 in March; the proportion of choosing merchants with the same opening rate was 41.94%, an increase of 9.68 percentage points from 29.03% in March. It increased by 25.81 percentage points on 16.13.
In March, based on the relatively abnormal data from January to February, the economy rebounded significantly. In April, a larger proportion of markets were selected with total business volume, logistics shipment volume, passenger flow, and opening rate remaining the same or declining compared to March. In April, the national market basically achieved full resumption of work, but the sales situation was not different from March. It can be seen that the retaliatory consumption boom has not yet come, and the business level of the market and merchants after resumption of work will still need a long recovery period from the normal production and operation level.
2. Merchant comprehensive cost index and inventory index rebounded
In April, the comprehensive cost index of merchants was 50.07, an increase of 1.40 percentage points from 48.67 in March; the inventory index was 51.26, an increase of 1.05 percentage points from 50.21 in March; in March, most merchants resumed normal stall operations, with cost pressure, inventory The pressure increased and the index fell; in April, merchants gradually adapted to the physical operation model under the normalization of epidemic prevention work. With the promotion of new equipment launches and various opening promotion activities, merchants’ comprehensive cost pressure and inventory pressure have been relieved to a certain extent. ease.
3. Prediction index declines, market and merchant confidence relapses
Data show that in terms of managers, the manager’s prosperity index for the next period is 48.71, down 1.94 percentage points from 50.65 in March; the business environment index for the next period is 49.03, down 0.97 percentage points from 50.00 in March. In terms of merchants, the merchant prosperity index for the next period is 47.69, an increase of 0.28 percentage points from 47.41 in March; the business environment index for the next period is 47.69, an increase of 0.28 percentage points from 47.41 in March. In terms of prediction index, the four prediction indexes of managers and merchants returned to below the 50 boom-bust line. It can be seen that after nearly a month of resumption of work, market managers and merchants are not as optimistic as expected, and the retaliatory consumption boom has not yet arrived. There has been a reversal of confidence in the industry situation. </p
