The recent rebound in crude oil is mainly driven by the restart of the economy in Europe and the United States and the implementation of production cuts, which has led to rising market expectations for a better supply and demand pattern, but it is obvious that Affected by the uncertain development of the epidemic, crude oil has not shown a sustained rebound in the recent past. The recovery of demand is still in its early stages, and the market surplus situation has not yet been fundamentally reversed, which has limited boost to the overall chemical market. The short-term crude oil market still needs to pay attention to the degree of demand recovery and the development of the epidemic.
The emergence of new confirmed cases of COVID-19 has further raised market concerns about a possible second outbreak of the epidemic. As of now, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide has exceeded 4.3 million, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases in 10 countries has exceeded 100,000. The cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States is close to 1.4 million. The base of confirmed cases worldwide is large, and ending the blockade too quickly will increase the risk of recurrence of the epidemic. Market concerns have intensified, putting pressure on the recovery of chemical products.
With the expectation of a slow recovery in demand, the pressure on the supply side of ethylene glycol is still the key to suppressing the market. At present, the inventory continues to increase. The MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China is about 1.3 million tons. Recently, imports from the Middle East and the United States have increased significantly. More than 200,000 tons are still expected to arrive at the East China port this week, while shipments from the main reservoir area of the main port The volume has remained at around 6,500 tons in the near future, and the port is still roughly overstocked. The port’s tank capacity is still tight, and market participants expect this situation to remain until the end of June.
In the context of the global economic recession, the expansion of downstream demand in the textile industry this year will lag behind the growth rate of previous years. Although market participants expect downstream polyester demand to rebound slowly in the second half of the year, in the short term It seems that demand support is still weak. The recent production and sales of polyester polyester yarns have continued to be sluggish, and the market sentiment has been pessimistic for many years. Because downstream terminals rely on a high proportion of exports, some factories lack optimistic expectations for the actual recovery in demand in the second half of the year.
In short, in the short term, from the support of crude oil to the repeated risk suppression of the epidemic to the high inventory pressure of ethylene glycol, ethylene glycol still does not have the conditions to break through, and the bottom range will be adjusted. It is expected to continue.
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