Since May Day, spinning has successively taken orders for viscose staple fiber. The quotation of viscose staple fiber has recovered moderately based on certain orders. However, despite the production reduction and losses of rayon yarn, the low market price has also been able to be transacted in stages. , but industry confidence still cannot be established. While viscose staple fiber finally hit a new low this time, it also confirmed that the rebound strength has gradually narrowed.
Confidence is more valuable than gold, viscose The lack of confidence in staple fiber has been around for a long time. Even in the current situation of high losses and low prices, it is still difficult to drive industry sentiment. The editor roughly summarizes the following 4 factors that have caused the current lack of confidence in the viscose staple fiber industry chain.
1. The contract was signed at a low price
This wave of market is for The unit price of viscose staple fiber is 8,500-8,900 yuan/ton, while the purchase price of vortex-spun rayon R30S yarn is 10,500-11,300 yuan/ton. This price has exceeded production for both viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn. the merchant’s marginal cost. This periodic market transaction is also a behavior that occurs because the industry price is oversold and the room for further decline is expected to be limited. The yarn companies selling goods cannot be happy because they are selling at low prices and losing money, and the companies with stable prices cannot be happy either because of the lack of Transactions and inventory pressure have not eased.
Therefore, the orders were signed at low prices, while the mainstream prices and relatively high prices were generally traded. Therefore, the intensity and level of orders for viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn were not uniform this time, and the market It is difficult to form a unified situation of tight goods, and it is also impossible to create a unified situation of tight prices.
2. Not paying the full amount
Viscose staple fiber After experiencing periodic transactions, although the ratio of orders and inventory held by companies may reach more than 100%, most of them are cash on delivery. Therefore, in the first week after May Day, although viscose staple fiber manufacturers hold orders, the physical inventory is If there is growth, companies may urge spinning companies to receive goods in order to collect payment. However, the financial situation of spinning companies is not optimistic, and subsequent purchases rarely pay in full. The best phenomenon is that only 60% of the total payment is paid – Most of them are 70%, and there is even no deposit transaction. The overall capital flow in the industry chain is not healthy, so there are concerns about order cancellations and contract breaches. Constrained by this, some spinning and traders would rather give up some orders.
3. Supply will also increase
Spinning companies experience the Spring Festival , the epidemic in February-March, Qingming Festival, May Day, and the year-on-year decline in the industry’s average start-up before June is a foregone conclusion. Long-term or periodic low-load operation will only increase the overall cost pressure of spinning enterprises, so periodic transactions will improve after May Day and the holiday. This instantly stimulated yarn companies in some areas to increase their load or even operate at full capacity, but it also caused supply to increase again. The current load of viscose staple fiber has also dropped to a low level of 63%, and even dropped below 60% in the second half of the month. If it really gets better, viscose staple fiber will have greater startup flexibility to meet market demand.
4. Worry about the off-season sales in June and July
6 Months and Julys are considered by the rayon industry to be the off-season for domestic sales. The initial purchasing pace is probably when orders improve in August, and they start looking for opportunities to buy bottoms in June or July. Therefore, the industry is not very enthusiastic about early intervention in May. Although it currently benefits from some Domestic sales orders have improved, but most of them are short-term orders that do not last long enough, and the start time of export sales is not fixed. </p
