Since last Wednesday (May 6), the ICE US cotton external price has continued to rise, with the main July contract rising from 54.51 cents/lb to 57.46 cents/lb; the main domestic Zheng cotton CF2009 contract first rebounded to 11,800 yuan/ton, and then continued to fall, maintaining a range of 11,400-11,500 yuan/ton today. From a short-term comparison point of view, the situation of external strength and internal weakness is more obvious.
From the perspective of upstream and downstream situations, according to the latest survey data from the National Cotton Market Monitoring System in May, the company’s cotton industry inventory conversion days were 35.7 days, a month-on-month decrease of 15.3 days, and yarn inventory was 30 days, a month-on-month decrease of 3.8 days. days, the inventory was released for 48.8 days, a month-on-month decrease of 5.4 days, but various year-on-year data are still on the high side. It can be seen that since May, the finished product inventory of downstream textile enterprises has declined compared with the original inventory, and market demand is slowly picking up. Judging from the feedback from upstream cotton-related trading companies and manufacturing companies, market inquiries have increased in stages, but the overall sales process is still slow. Most of the cotton traded is still priced at low futures prices. Textile companies are expected to purchase lint. The price is low, and it is difficult to complete effective transactions on some pending orders. The above factors are enough to reflect that although the market has recovered, the degree of recovery is weak.
From the perspective of supply competition, domestic low-priced Xinjiang cotton competes fiercely with foreign cotton. Although some Brazilian cotton and American cotton are slightly better in quality, Xinjiang cotton has a greater price advantage. attraction. Therefore, it is inevitable that foreign cotton stocks will continue to accumulate. At the same time, with sufficient cotton supply at home and abroad, not only foreign cotton inventories are high, but domestic cotton inventories are also at historically high levels. The rest of this year is the off-season for textile companies, and downstream digestion is expected to be limited, and subsequent inventory pressure still needs to be released.
At present, as the impact of the foreign epidemic gradually eases, the mentality of all parties in the country has been restored to a certain extent. However, in terms of trade trends between China and the United States, various news are complicated, and investors have large differences between long and short. Whether this will have an impact on cotton prices in May-June remains to be seen. In addition, sandstorms and hail disasters have previously occurred in some areas of Xinjiang, and their impact still requires continued attention. Here, it is recommended that industry players pay attention to the transformation of relevant influencing factors, make reasonable estimates of the impact on the market in the short and medium term, and control risks in advance. </p
