According to data regression analysis, taking the price of high-density R30S yarn as an example, the fitting degree of the market price trend of rayon yarn and viscose yarn from 2019 to the present is as high as 96%. The prices of both are on a downward trend, and have hit new lows in succession; affected by the health emergency, the average profits of the viscose staple and rayon yarn industries have further tightened since the beginning of 2020.
Since 2019, the market price of viscose staple fiber has been on an overall downward trend, and the market price has continued to hit historical lows. At the beginning of 2019, the market price of 1.5D was about 13,500 yuan/ton (acceptance), and it closed at 9,450 yuan/ton (acceptance) at the end of the year. The price The decline was as high as 30%. Entering 2020, affected by the health emergency and against the background of shrinking terminal demand, sticky short-form enterprises gradually changed from passive production restrictions to active production reductions, and switched to high-white and other differentiated fibers to balance the gap between supply and demand. , however, the market price is still dragged down by poor demand and continues to decline. In late April, companies once again offered profit and promoted goods. The overall market price basically fell below 9,000 yuan/ton (acceptance), and the large volume on the market touched around 8,500 yuan/ton (acceptance). , hitting another record low.
Based on data regression analysis, taking the price of high-density R30S yarn as an example, from 2019 to now, the fitting degree of rayon yarn and viscose short-length market price trends is as high as 96%. During the same period, the viscose-short-length market price continued to fall. , rayon yarn also followed the downward trend. At the beginning of 2019, the price of high-density R30S yarn was about 18,550 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,300 yuan/ton at the end of the year, a price drop of about 22.9%. The current closing price is about 12,400 yuan/ton, which is an improvement from the beginning of 2020. About 13.3%.
Comparing the profits of the viscose and rayon yarn industries, from 2015 to 2017, the profits of the viscose industry trended Yu Xianghao, the average annual profit of the industry in 2017 reached 1,189 yuan/ton, which was the peak profit in the past five years. Subsequently, under the influence of the industry’s concentrated capacity expansion, the industry took profits in 2018, and the profit shrank to -1,320 yuan/ton in 2019. , while the average profit improvement since the beginning of 2020 has dropped to -1594 yuan/ton.
The average annual profit fluctuation of the rayon yarn industry is significantly smaller than that of short-bonded products. In 2018, the spun yarn industry expanded its capacity, and companies did not hesitate to benefit from the downstream yarn industry in order to stabilize and expand market demand share. Since 2018, the spun yarn industry has suffered significant losses, but the profit level of the rayon yarn industry is better than that from 2015 to 2017. However, it is also It is only a low-profit transaction. From 2018 to now, the average annual profit of the rayon yarn industry is in the range of 300-500 yuan/ton.
From 2015 to the present, the market price trends and profits of viscose yarn and rayon yarn According to the overall comprehensive analysis of the situation, both are in a weak operating trend, and the price performance is particularly outstanding. As far as the industry is concerned in the near future, due to the short-term sticky situation in late April, the industry once again offered profit for signing goods, and after the May Day holiday, companies are selling at low prices. , loss pressure, and to ensure the smooth fulfillment of the orders signed, companies have successively reported increases of 100-200 yuan/ton, and rayon yarn has also taken advantage of the situation to maintain a speculation mentality. During the same period, the two held a resonance to increase the willingness, and downstream and After merchants recently carried out bargain hunting to replenish their positions, they once again have limited efforts to purchase goods. The demand side has shown lukewarm performance. The digestion process of on-site supply is still slow. The prices of viscose and rayon yarn products have increased, and the demand side has relatively weak support for it.
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