From the three bottom prices since the end of March, the bottom price center of the polyester staple fiber market has gradually increased, which also shows that the darkest moment of the market is gradually passing, and the supply and demand side of the industry is gradually recovering. However, the recovery of overseas orders is still not ideal, and domestic sales orders have not shown improvement. Against this background, the rise in the polyester staple fiber market will not be achieved overnight.
Since May 14, driven by the strong rise in oil prices, the cost of polyester has begun to rise slightly. The cash flow of short fiber has been compressed again to around 400 yuan/ton. Some industry players believe that the cash flow space of the previous two dips for polyester staple fiber was around 350-400 yuan/ton. However, this round of strong oil prices, coupled with the expectation of a certain recovery in foreign trade orders, some traders believe that the short fiber price will be difficult to reach this time. After falling to the previous low, a new round of stockpiling began, driving the inventory of polyester staple fiber companies to drop to extremely low levels again, and the market price continued to rise. The increase is still continuing to this day.
However, downstream follow-up has shown weakness. Except for yarn companies in Fujian, which are doing well, yarn companies in other regions are still having difficulty shipping goods, and their own finished product inventories are still in January. Near the high level; the downstream market is difficult to drive, and the high-priced polyester staple fiber market has great resistance to transactions. This round of gains may be difficult to continue to push higher.
Data source: Longzhong Information
Looking at the market outlook, oil OPEC+ may continue to promote production cuts and the demand recovery brought about by the resumption of work in many countries is expected to maintain a gradually warmer market amid shocks. However, the demand recovery brought about by overseas resumption of work will not be achieved overnight, and the market’s concerns about the tightening of remaining inventory capacity still exist. , these factors will limit the speed of oil price recovery; and the current processing fee of PX is already at an extremely low level between 210-240, which means that the trend of PX in the later period will follow the cost fluctuations with a high probability; PTA’s current inventory is still at a low level It is at a record high, and the industry processing fee is also at a relatively high level of 700-800 yuan/ton. However, the gap between supply and demand continues, and short-term cost changes are also a key factor affecting the market. In addition, polyester production and sales have continued to decline in recent days. It is relatively acceptable, so there is a high probability that PTA will fluctuate within the range in the future, but the bottom will gradually rise. The upward trend will be limited by high inventory, and the downward trend will be limited by cost; ethylene glycol also faces the basic supply and demand caused by high port inventory. The problem of weak supply; while polyester staple fiber enterprise inventories have remained at a low level within 7 days since April, and there is no pressure on supply for the time being, so cost and demand factors will become key factors in all markets in the short term. Taking a closer look at the recent waves of market trends, we can basically see that the rise in the market is driven by costs, while sustainability depends on demand. In terms of this round of market, the increase of polyester staple fiber is higher than the cost. The current cash flow has once again expanded to around 500 yuan/ton. There is a certain amount of inventory in the downstream and the improvement of its own orders is limited. The willingness to continue to pursue higher prices is insufficient. The cost The end of the market is also limited by the insufficient recovery of terminal orders, making it difficult to sustain the rise. Therefore, it is expected that the rise in this round of market may come to an end for the time being.
Taken together, the textile terminal industry is currently facing the dual pressures of domestic sales approaching the off-season and export sales slowing to recover. Against this background, the sharp rise and fall in raw material prices can easily aggravate the shortage of downstream funds. A relatively stable market may It is more beneficial to the development of current downstream enterprises. </p