Meng Wanzhou failed to be released. The Canadian court ruled that “double criminality” was established and rejected the application. On May 28, Beijing time, the Superior Court of British Columbia in Canada announced the first verdict in the Meng Wanzhou extradition case, finding that Huawei Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou met the standard of “double criminality” and therefore sentenced her to The extradition case will continue to be tried, and Ms. Meng Wanzhou will stay in Canada to participate in later related hearings and wait for the outcome of the new trial.
Last night, Russia stated that it supports easing production cuts starting from July, and international relations have become more confrontational. and API inventories rose, a weak U.S. dollar and a rising stock market provided weak support to oil prices, and international oil prices “dived from a high level.”
API crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased. The API report showed that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 8.731 million barrels last week to 530 million barrels, and were expected to decrease by 2.5 million barrels. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.12 million barrels. The International Energy Agency predicts that global energy investment will fall by 20% in 2020, to approximately US$400 billion. Morgan Stanley raised its oil price forecast for the third and fourth quarters by $5/barrel. ExxonMobil said it expects oil demand to fall 10% in 2020 due to reduced economic activity. Wood Mackenzie predicts that China’s oil demand will rebound to 13 million barrels per day in the second quarter, an increase of 16.3% month-on-month, but still a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%. The U.S. Crude Oil Fund reported a trading loss of $3.66 billion, compared with a loss of $2.62 billion in April and a loss of $1.19 billion in March.
As of early this morning, the US S&P 500 index rose 1.48%, the European Stoxx50 index rose 1.66%, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.06%, WTI crude oil fell 5.71%, and Brent crude oil fell 4.80% , London copper fell 1.37%, gold rose 0.29%, U.S. soybeans rose 0.24%, U.S. soybean meal fell 0.56%, U.S. soybean oil rose 1.21%, U.S. sugar fell 2.79%, U.S. cotton rose 0.17%, CRB index fell 1.87%, BDI index down 0.79%. The offshore yuan CNH fell 0.43% to 7.1738, and Deutsche Bank’s X-Trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-share ETF fell 0.89%.
Meng Wanzhou failed to be released, and the Canadian court ruled that “double criminality” was established
On May 28, Beijing time, the High Court of British Columbia in Canada announced the first verdict in the Meng Wanzhou extradition case, finding that Huawei Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou Meeting the “dual criminality” standard, her extradition case will continue to be tried. Ms. Meng Wanzhou will stay in Canada to participate in later relevant hearings and wait for the outcome of the new trial.
The second phase of the future trial is scheduled to begin in June, focusing on the abuse of proceedings and whether Canadian officials followed the law when arresting Meng Wanzhou, that is, the focus will shift to Canada Is it legal for the police and other departments to arrest her at Vancouver Airport? Meng Wanzhou is the plaintiff in this case. Closing arguments are expected to take place in the last week of September and the first week of October.
According to the U.S.-Canada Extradition Treaty and Canada’s Extradition Act, Canada must prove that the suspect’s crime is also a crime in Canada when extraditing a suspect to other countries for trial. Meng Wanzhou’s lawyer previously stated that because the U.S. charges against Meng Wanzhou are based on U.S. sanctions against Iran, but Canada currently does not have financial sanctions against Iran, the charges against Meng Wanzhou do not constitute a crime in Canada and extradition is required. The plea did not satisfy the dual criminality requirement.
On May 26, when answering media questions about the Meng Wanzhou case, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian stated that China’s position on the Meng Wanzhou incident is consistent and clear. of. The United States and Canada abused their bilateral extradition treaty and arbitrarily adopted coercive measures against Chinese citizens, seriously violating the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese citizens. This is a serious political incident. The Chinese government is unwavering in its determination to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese citizens. Canada should earnestly correct its mistakes, immediately release Ms. Meng Wanzhou, and ensure her safe return to China to avoid continued damage to China-Canada relations. When asked whether China would take retaliatory measures if the Canadian court ruled against Meng, Zhao Lijian said he would not answer hypothetical questions.
The RMB exchange rate continues to fall, hitting a 9-month low
5 On March 27, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar further expanded its decline, once falling by more than 300 points during the day, reaching a low of 7.1759, a new low since September 2019.
Analysts said that the main reason for the continued depreciation of the RMB exchange rate in recent days is the US dollar index amid risk aversion sentiment Maintain high oscillation. At the same time, the depreciation of the exchange rate will also impose certain constraints on the further relaxation of short-term monetary policy. For example, in the past two days, the central bank has restarted reverse repurchases, but the scale is less than market expectations and the reverse repurchase rate remains unchanged.
India is experiencing the worst locust plague in 27 years
According to “Today “India” website reported that locusts were infested in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and other parts of India, and large amounts of farmland were destroyed. According to reports, India is facing the worst locust plague in 27 years. Gujjar, deputy director of the Indian Locust Warning Organization, told the media that Rajasthan and the central governmentThe operating start-up of MTBE is slightly higher, at about 40%, but still lower than the same period last year; while the operating start-up of acetic acid has dropped from more than 80% in April to less than 60% currently. Looking at the market outlook, the recovery prospects of the world’s major economies are not optimistic, and the domestic economy will inevitably be affected. Therefore, although the traditional downstream methanol is about to enter the peak demand season, the increase in demand for methanol is limited.
Wang Yi believes that the profits of the olefin industry are minimally affected by weak oil prices. Since mid-April, the cash flow of MTO units has been conservatively estimated at more than 1,000 yuan/ton. High profits have stimulated the enthusiasm of enterprises for production. As of the week of May 21, the operating rate of MTO devices was 80.27%. However, high operating rates also mean that there is limited room for improvement in the later period, and the impact on methanol prices in the medium term will be neutral.
“The loose supply pattern of methanol in the short and medium term is difficult to change, but it is also an indisputable fact that the price is close to the cost line. It is expected that methanol futures will still maintain a low oscillation trend.” Wang Yi said.
The gold-silver ratio is still low, and there is room for silver to rise
Yesterday, the spot gold price fell below 1,700 US dollars per ounce, and the short-term gold continued to fall slightly within the range, reaching a new low in the past two weeks. After rising for many days, gold prices temporarily showed signs of weakness.
In this regard, Wang Jun, precious metals analyst at Minmetals Economic Futures, analyzed that gold and silver have slightly corrected after rebounding to high levels recently, and the trend of gold is relatively weaker. There are four main reasons. Points: First, after gold and silver reached the main pressure level, the short-term news did not cooperate, and there was insufficient motivation for an upward breakthrough; second, the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting minutes and official speeches have strongly denied negative interest rates, and the market is optimistic that nominal interest rates will continue to decline. Expectations have weakened; third, inflation expectations are rising slowly in the post-epidemic era, and real interest rates are unable to form a downward breakthrough in the short term; fourth, good news about vaccine development has come out from time to time recently, and the strength of U.S. stocks has also put pressure on precious metals.
Wang Jun believes that gold and silver will still be in a large rising cycle in the future, and the gold-silver ratio will still be low. It is expected that there will be more room for silver in the future.
Brazilian shipping volume unexpectedly increased, iron ore prices fell
Iron ore futures fell higher this week. On the spot side, the Platts index was basically flat. Jinbuba powder fell slightly, with the market price falling to 750 yuan/ton.
Zhou Weijiang, a black analyst at Galaxy Futures, told a reporter from Futures Daily that currently South China has entered the flood season, and seasonal demand decline is inevitable. Recently, building materials transactions and shipments have weakened. If demand Completely referring to last year’s seasonal trend, with a thread production of 3.9 million tons/week, the inventory in August can still be reduced to the same period last year. At present, electric furnaces are basically at the edge of flat power profit, and further increases in electric furnace output are expected to be limited. From the perspective of scrap steel supply, the current scrap steel supply and demand are also at a high level in the same period last year. The room for spot price decline is also expected to be limited, and the downward pressure on electric furnace costs is limited. “On the whole, if demand in the off-season does not decline more than expected, it is expected that the spot adjustment of thread futures will be limited. After the inventory is better digested from July to August, there may be an upward drive.” He said.
Zhou Weijiang believes that the current building materials market is in a state of high supply and demand, and plate end production demand has not yet fully recovered. Overall pig iron production has exceeded last year’s highest level, which is good for raw material demand. Brazil’s shipments have declined significantly in the first two weeks, and the COVID-19 epidemic has become more serious. There is a high probability that Brazil’s shipments will fall short of expectations. Iron ore has surged amid low inventory, high demand, and tightening supply expectations. Last week, Brazil’s shipments recovered significantly. , futures and spot prices have pulled back.
“At present, pig iron production is still expected to remain high from June to July. The probability of Brazil’s shipments continuing to remain at a high level of around 7 million tons is expected to be small. Later shipments are expected to be higher. Affected by the epidemic, the pressure on iron ore storage from June to July is expected to be limited, and is expected to remain strong under low inventories and large basis differences. Later risks mainly focus on the increase in the proportion of shipments stimulated by high domestic prices and the increase in non-mainstream shipments.” He said.
In terms of coke, Zhou Weijiang believes that since April, with the significant increase in pig iron production, the demand for coke has improved significantly, shifting from a loose pattern in the early stage to a reduction in inventory, and the coking supply has recently decreased Production capacity and production restrictions are expected to strengthen, and futures and spot prices are also relatively strong. Recently, Shandong Province issued a document requiring the province’s coke production to be controlled at around 30.7 million tons. Currently, coking plants have limited production. Under strict implementation, the coke production in the later period will be affected by 25,000-30,000 tons/day. Shandong’s implementation of overcapacity reduction has been relatively good since 2019, and the probability of coal consumption control being implemented in the later period is also expected to be higher, which may increase the extent of coke destocking. Supply and demand are still strong, and low profits from hot coils in the later period will suppress the increase in coke prices. </p
