1. Free meltblown cloth
I have always heard that the core material of masks, melt-blown cloth, is very expensive, 400,000 per ton, online today I accidentally saw the meltblown cloth price trend chart above and was shocked. The price dropped too fast. The civilian grade 90 dropped from 400,000 to 20,000, which is close to the price before the epidemic.
So I sent this picture to a friend who produces masks, but he said:
The current situation is worse than this picture. Exaggeration, meltblown cloth has plummeted to 10,000 per ton, and even given away for free. A few days ago, a manufacturer gave me a batch of meltblown cloth for free.
This is so unexpected, because a month ago, we talked about whether to invest in additional mask production lines, but luckily we didn’t.
Generally, the filtration standard of melt-blown cloth for the production of masks must reach 80%. During the epidemic, many meltblown fabrics with less than 80% sales were sold for 400,000-500,000 per ton. At that time, no matter what the standards were, it would be nice to have them. As long as the masks produced had melt-blown cloth, they would be sold out instantly. It’s hard to find a cover on the market, you can’t even buy one, and no one cares about the standard of meltblown cloth. The first time our unit returned to work, they distributed masks with only two layers of gauze and no melt-blown cloth.
After the price of melt-blown cloth skyrocketed, a friend said: City T quickly invested in hundreds of production plants, large and small, with hundreds of thousands of small machines and melt-blown wiring in large factories. Tens of millions, just after it was put into production, or even before it was put into production (the minimum construction period is two or three months), the price of meltblown cloth began to plummet. Almost all factories suffered huge losses and are now in a state of suspension. According to the current market situation, it is estimated that it will be difficult to have the opportunity to activate it in the future. (The four towns S, Q, F, and To reach 80%, it is 79%. The meltblown fabric factory directly said: We don’t want it anymore, and we will give it to you for free. This batch of goods cost several million a month ago, but now they are just given away. The speed of this fall is faster than jumping off the rooftop.
My friend didn’t have anywhere to put it, so he just threw it on the cement road outside the factory gate. In 10 days, meltblown cloth goes from gold to trash.
2. Masks that plummeted by 96%
My friend said: Now The cheapest melt-blown cloth mask has an ex-factory price of only 1 cents.
You read it right, and I also typed it wrong. It’s 1 cents and 3 cents, not 1 yuan and 3 yuan. In February, the cheapest meltblown cloth mask cost 3 yuan. Plunged 96% in 3 months! It feels like a world away.
Many of these cheapest masks can only be sold on e-commerce, so everyone should be careful when buying this kind of masks, and still buy medical masks through formal channels.
The plummeting price of masks is mainly due to the rapid increase in production capacity. Looking at news statistics, before the epidemic, the country’s daily production was 20 million, and in March it quickly increased to 200 million, and there were 50,000 mask factories. A friend said that it may actually be higher because many small retail factories are not included in the statistics.
Now in the four mask towns of S, Q, F and Small factories produce the varieties that require the most investment. My friend is in S Town. Most of the mask factories in S Town have stopped now, and there are only a few that are still making them. The previous cost was basically around 6 cents, but now it is 13 cents.
These small factories are all newly built by retail investors, and there are no active and controllable sales channels. When they were sold before, they were collected at door-to-door along the coast. Now that no one is collecting them, they can’t be found. Buyer, can’t sell.
And the routines along the coast are relatively deep. The famous brand LS factory in Z province went to the four towns to receive goods on May 10th. They threatened to make as much as they want and charge 1.2 yuan. Tax included. As a result, the mask factory went to the LS factory to collect goods and queued up at the entrance of the LS factory. The trucks queued for 1-2 kilometers. The LS factory has an unconventional testing method, using weights to test welding joints.
With such a large weight, several masks can withstand the pulling. A friend said: 90% of them will break. Not accepted. However, as soon as they leave the house, there are scalpers who collect 7-8 dollars and then enter the factory through the back door. It’s all a routine.
My friend took it back in anger and refused to sell it. I asked: What price will you sell it for? A friend said: Sell it for 6 cents.
Also at the end of April and the beginning of May, the customs began to strictly inspect the mask standards, and one factory returned more than 60 million yuan of masks. Now they are piled in the warehouse, and the price of more than 1 cent is being slowly processed, while the production cost is more than 6 cents, a loss of 80%.
3. “Scrap iron” mask machine
Before the epidemic, A KN95 mask machine costs RMB 200,000. After the epidemic started, the price of a KN95 mask machine increased by 10 times to RMB 2 million. Moreover, it is a cash futures product, which means that the buyer pays the full amount first to place an order, and then receives the mask machine a few weeks later. Now it has dropped back to 200,000 units.
Friends said that this is definitely not the lowest price. Before the epidemic, a disposable flat mask machine only sold for 20,000. Based on the current excess production capacity, it is estimated that a mask machine may be sold for several thousand in the future, or may even not be sold at all. It will eventually be left to rust in the factory, and in the end it will have to be sold as scrap metal.
4. Who makes money?
Making money with ordinary masks: As long as you don’t use the KN95 production line and only produce ordinary masks, it will be fine.
My friend said that his father went home to see a doctor at the end of March, and several relatives put together a disposable flat mask machine. The mask machine cost more than 200,000 yuan, and the raw materials were 34,000 yuan. 100,000 yuan, one week to pay back the investment, and then proceed steadily without making any rash advances, first take orders and then produce. Although prices have plummeted now, there is still a slight�Profit is much better than working. But he was too late to catch up with the most profitable period. During the most profitable period, an ordinary mask machine could earn hundreds of thousands a day and pay back the money in three days.
Those who come first make money: For example, Q Town is originally a production area for labor protection products, and the production of masks is seamless and smooth. This is the first group to make masks. Each of the four mask kings circulating in the town has made more than 1 billion. Every household in some villages has become a multi-millionaire in an instant. They don’t know how to spend the money they earn, so they go to the provincial capital to buy luxury homes. There are many unlicensed luxury cars in the town.
My friend’s cousin received the order for non-woven fabrics last year and built a factory of his own. It was put into production in January, just in time for the epidemic in February. This fortune is coming, and nothing can stop it. For two months, I couldn’t get through the phone calls and no one dared to answer them. All the calls were from various government leaders and relatives who wanted to buy goods, and the supply exceeded the demand.
Making money by cheating: no risk, just place a deposit and get two ends, no capital and huge profit. There are people reselling and hoarding everything upstream and downstream of masks.
For example, a good friend’s cousin went to Guangdong to resell a mask machine, a KN95, from February to March. The resale price would be at least RMB 600,000 to RMB 700,000, and the resale price for a disposable ordinary mask machine would be RMB 2-10. Ten thousand. A total of more than 20 units were resold. He said: Those who have so much money don’t even know how to spend it!
There are three laymen in Changzhou who worked backwards. Seeing that the mask machine only had more than 1,000 parts, they bought it and assembled it themselves. In less than 3 months, they assembled 25 Taiwan made 7 million, and the shortfall of 500,000 was 2.5 million per person. But the technology was so poor that some machines couldn’t be used. Customers called the police and were arrested.
Workers earn money: producing masks costs 300 yuan a day. There are also workers who work overtime continuously to make money and die from overwork.
5. Who pays?
Masks were so profitable at first, how could anyone still lose money? The main reason is the loss of investment in the later period. The money earned in the early stage is invested in the later stage, so all the capital and profits are lost.
Many mask owners who lost money were still making money in April. Before April, I made a lot of money by producing ordinary disposable masks, but I could only earn a few cents per mask, tens of thousands a day, which is too little. It is not as profitable as producing KN95, 50% profit, the cost is less than 3 yuan, and the factory sells 7 -8 yuan.
So I made a lot of money on ordinary masks in the early stage, and started the KN95 production line in April. The mask machine ordered for 2 million yuan in early April only arrived at the factory in early May. After several days of assembly and debugging, the price of KN95 has dropped from 7-8 yuan to more than 1 yuan. Mask machines also plummeted from 2 million to 200,000-300,000 yuan. In addition, more than 1 million yuan of raw materials such as melt-blown cloth must be stocked. Masks, raw materials, and machines are three critical hits. The plummeting trend is basically consistent with the price of meltblown cloth.
A friend said: In towns X and F, more than 95% of the bosses lost millions. (These two towns used to make plastic products and construction auxiliary materials, but only started to produce masks in March)
The government approved the construction of more than a dozen melt-blown factories with investments of tens of millions. Bu Da Factory basically lost tens of millions.
There was a boss who had too much inventory and couldn’t sell it. He was losing money so much that he got nervous: he often covered the mask machine with quilts and said he was afraid that the machine would be cold and he would not work well in the future. live.
6. How much will masks cost in the future
A friend said, When the cost of worker processing fees was at its highest, it was more than 1 cent. In April, it dropped to 8 cents. Now it is only 3 cents. Meltblown cloth costs 10,000 per ton, and a mask costs 1 cent, so the cost can be ignored.
Before the epidemic, ordinary surgical masks with certificates cost as little as 8 cents each. But now the average surgical mask is still as high as 6 cents.
So, combined with the current excess production capacity, the price of masks is likely to drop to a few cents per piece in the future, with a high probability of being less than 8 cents.
To sum up the crazy history of face masks, this is: the dealers are sure to make money, the workers eat soup, the first ones make money, the last ones lose money, the contented ones make money, the greedy ones lose money.
There are also two follow-ups:
First, the mentality of local workers has been greatly affected. At the peak of mask production, the daily salary was more than 300. Now that the price of masks has dropped, it is more than 100 per day, and many workers are unwilling to work. The temporary mask factory was switched back to produce non-woven fabrics, plastic bags, etc., which produced more than 100 masks a day, and many workers were unwilling to work. This makes it difficult for local factories to recruit workers and costs rise sharply.
The second is family conflicts. Most mask factories are joint ventures between relatives. When they first started production and did not make any money, everyone worked together. Later, when they made more money, conflicts immediately emerged. Many factories quarreled every day, and even relatives who were good friends in the past ended up quarreling with each other. I personally experienced “sharing hardships and hardships, sharing wealth and hardships”.
Many people posted on WeChat Moments in March and April saying: They have recognized the truth about family ties and understood human nature.
In May, the circle of friends became: those who came first lived in the mansion, and those who came later went to the rooftop. </p
