Introduction: Since the beginning of May, the OPEC+ production reduction agreement has achieved remarkable results, and the crude oil market has cleared up the clouds, with prices exceeding US$30 per barrel. Driven by the cost side, PTA prices have also been rising. However, due to the lack of more good news guidance at the end of the month, PTA hesitated, and May PTA will end in shock.
From a cost perspective, the good news on the cost side has basically been released at the end of the month, and the gains in crude oil have gradually narrowed, and the rise has been weak. During this period, crude oil prices fell slightly due to the uncertainty between China and the United States and whether production cuts could continue. The PX market is mainly weak and volatile, with heavy upward pressure. The cost-side support is solid, but it is unable to drive PTA to continue upward. At the end of the month, the spot market price of PTA continued to fluctuate in the range of 3450-3520.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
From a supply perspective, the shutdown and maintenance of Hanbang’s 2.2 million tons PTA unit has a negative impact on the market The impact is short-lived and limited. Currently, PTA operating rate remains at 80.69%, and social inventory remains at 3.552 million tons. There is a slight destocking, but the high inventory trend continues. PTA processing fees have exceeded the 900 yuan/ton mark, setting a new high for the year. In June, Hainan Yisheng’s 2 million-ton unit, Xinjiang Zhongtai’s 1.2-million-ton unit and Yizheng Chemical Fiber’s 650,000-ton unit have maintenance plans. However, in terms of the current rising PTA processing fees and profits, it is very likely that manufacturers will postpone the maintenance. big.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
From the demand side, the start of downstream polyester production was stable at the end of the month, and the market was more on the sidelines. Pick up, demand is light. In terms of polyester fiber, the main focus is on early stocking, and due to the small off-season in June, downstream orders have dropped compared with the middle of the month. The weaving operating rate has steadily recovered and currently remains at 68%. With the improvement of foreign orders in the later period, the weaving operating rate is expected to continue to increase.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
Taken together, at the end of May, the directionality of the PTA market was not strong and lacked more Guidance from many good news is mainly range-bound. In June, if some PTA devices can be repaired as scheduled and terminal demand gradually recovers, PTA may rebound due to favorable conditions at both ends of supply and demand. </p
