Since May, the domestic polyester filament market has shown a volatile upward trend, leading the rise in the entire chemical fiber market. Products of various specifications have increased to varying degrees, among which polyester FDY has the most obvious increase of 11.95%. The strong cost-side trend is the main reason for the current increase in polyester filament market prices.
Raw material side: crude oil market in May Since OPEC+ officially entered the production reduction process, the supply and demand situation has continued to improve, and oil prices have risen.
As the equipment in the PTA market gradually enters maintenance, the operating load has dropped from 93% at the beginning of the month to around 87%. It is expected that the maintenance plan for equipment involving 10 million tons/year will be launched in June. However, the PTA processing range was 938.45 yuan/ton on May 28. Driven by high processing fees, it is not ruled out that some equipment may be postponed for maintenance. At present, the macroeconomics and future downstream foreign trade orders are still expected to improve, so the short-term PTA side still maintains a volatile operating trend.
Currently, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the main port in East China continues to rise. According to statistics from Longzhong Information, the inventory on May 28 was 1.2937 million tons, which was slightly lower than last Monday, but Still at a high level, and the recent overseas epidemic has not yet reached an inflection point, ethylene glycol terminal exports are facing greater pressure, and there will be more domestic ethylene glycol production capacity in the future, triggering concerns about market supply.
Polyester filament:
Source :Longzhong Information
As of May 9, the market center price of polyester filament POY150/48 is 5,425 yuan/ton, the market center price of FDY150/96 is 6,050 yuan/ton, and DTY150/ 48 The market center price is 6925 yuan/ton. As can be seen from the chart above, polyester filament yarn has been on a downward trend due to the impact of the domestic and foreign epidemics since the end of the year. The low point occurred during the Qingming Festival in April. With the intervention of downstream and peripheral funds, the price fluctuated and recovered. However, due to the new downstream foreign trade orders increased, but the order volume has been slower than expected, corporate inventories have increased slowly, and polyester yarn prices have shown a fluctuating trend. Recently, with the launch of a new wave of yarn promotions in Ningbo, production and sales have improved partially, and major factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have launched month-end promotions every day. model, however, most downstream companies are cautious about the later market due to capital turnover, and the overall production and sales show a high or low trend, and some downstream companies buy on dips. At present, the cash flow of POY is on the edge of the cost line, and the cash flow of FDY and DTY is relatively slightly higher. However, in general, the pressure on polyester inventory is mainly due to the relatively high texturing aspect. DTY inventory is relatively high.
Demand side: As of May 28, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 70.29%, an increase of 19.1 percentage points from the previous month. Although the demand side of downstream terminals has improved, after entering mid-May, the number of orders began to decrease rapidly, and the market entered the off-season in the traditional sense. The performance of orders is unstable, and we should remain cautious in purchasing raw materials. If subsequent orders cannot be followed up in time, the possibility of another reduction in loom load in late June cannot be ruled out, and a substantial recovery needs to be observed.
In general, the recent fluctuations in raw materials have supported the current cash flow of polyester filament, which is generally acceptable and will still be available in June. Hengli and Rongsheng polyester filament plants are expected to restart, and foreign trade orders may be expected to improve further in the future. Therefore, it is expected that the low prices of polyester filament may be gone in the future, but the room for upside is also limited, and may show a volatile operation trend. </p
