A brief description of the first part
In May, the upstream and downstream products of the polyester industry chain showed overall shock Uptrend. The steady rebound of international crude oil has provided strong support to the industrial chain market. Stimulated by favorable factors such as OPEC+ and oil-producing countries’ production cuts, international crude oil rebounded steadily in the middle and early half of the year. Driven by external favorable factors, the industrial chain market fluctuated and rose across the board. However, as the fundamentals of market supply and demand are still weak, in the second half of the year, as international crude oil tends to In consolidation, the market lacks sustained positive momentum, the market rebound is limited, and the industrial chain market maintains a narrow consolidation.
Table 1 The rise and fall rankings of various products in the chemical fiber industry chain in May
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
As shown in Table 1, in terms of month-on-month range, PX (CFR Taiwan) increased by 3.81% month-on-month in May, PTA increased by 6.45% month-on-month, MEG increased by 7.28% month-on-month, polyester chips increased by 4.12% month-on-month, polyester bottle chips increased by 3.36% month-on-month, polyester filament increased by 8.18% month-on-month, and polyester staple fiber fell by 2.45% month-on-month.
Part 2 Analysis of the rise and fall and trend of the chemical fiber industry chain in May
Data source: Jinlianchuang
Jinlianchuang chemical fiber industry chain monitored the monthly average prices of 7 chemical fiber products and raw materials, as shown in Figure 1 As shown in the figure, the average monthly price of chemical fiber products increased in May, with the increase within the month remaining between 3-8%. The largest increase was polyester filament, up 8.18%, and the smallest increase was polyester bottle flakes, up 3.36%. Among chemical fiber products, only polyester staple fiber fell 2.45% from the previous month.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
In May, it is based on statistics on the rise and fall of various products in the chemical fiber industry chain. Look, as shown in Figure 2, the chemical fiber industry chain market fluctuated and rebounded mainly during the month, and the overall level declined significantly compared with the same period last year. From the year-on-year data, it can be seen that the overall decline ranged from 19-45%, with the largest decline being PX, a decrease of 45.53%, and the smallest decrease was ethylene glycol, a decrease of 19.08%.
The third part of the market analysis of the main products of the chemical fiber chain
PX
In May, the Asian PX market fluctuated and rose. As of the end of the month, Asian PX was estimated at US$462/ton FOB South Korea and US$482/ton CFR Taiwan/China, an increase of US$21/ton from the end of the previous month. Ton. The beginning of the month coincided with the International Labor Day, and the domestic market was closed. However, international crude oil continued to rebound during the period. Boosted by costs, the PX market rose steadily. Especially on the first day after the holiday, chemical products generally made up for the increase, and both upstream and downstream products experienced varying degrees of growth. However, due to the weak fundamentals of PX, PX construction starts remain at a relatively high level, there is supply pressure in the market, and the mentality of industry players has turned cautious. PX and downstream PTA mainly continue to accumulate inventory, and merchants’ shipping intentions have increased. In the second half of the year, due to the gradual recovery of crude oil demand, international crude oil saw a wave of rising prices, and aromatic products basically followed suit. In addition, the downstream PTA market also recovered, and PX transactions were good. At the end of the month, the performance of naphtha was weak, cost support collapsed, PX buying enthusiasm weakened, merchants’ offers were loose, and the atmosphere was bearish. At the end of the month, Sinopec announced that the settlement price of PX in May was 4,110 yuan/ton, which was 290 yuan/ton higher than the settlement price last month. The average CFR Taiwan/China price in May was US$485.5/ton, up 3.81% month-on-month and down 45.53% year-on-year. The lowest price was US$461/ton on May 5, and the highest price was US$508/ton on May 20. Ton.
PTA
In May, the PTA spot market rose within a narrow range. The overall transaction situation is average. At the beginning of the month, crude oil price fluctuations narrowed, and the cost side provided solid support to the PTA market. PTA operating rates remained at a high level, and high inventories still suppressed market prices. The upward pressure on the PTA spot market was heavy; despite the improvement in demand expectations due to the restart of the peripheral economy, the terminal Substantial demand has not improved significantly, downstream polyester production and sales have been weak, and the market remains volatile. On the 14th, the spot offer at the main port in East China was reduced by 160 yuan/ton for the 2009 contract, and the offer was reduced by 170 yuan/ton. The negotiation centered on 3270-3320 yuan/ton. In the middle of the year, crude oil prices rose within a narrow range, and the cost side provided strong support for the PTA market. Hanbang’s 2.2 million-ton unit was temporarily shut down, and the reduction in supply drove the PTA market to continue to rise. However, PTA inventories remained high, and downstream demand was weak, and the market lacked substance. Sex is positive and boosting, so we should wait and see. On the 21st, the spot offer at the main port in East China was reduced by 120-130 yuan/ton for the 2009 contract, and the offer was reduced by 140 yuan/ton. The negotiation centered on 3560-3590 yuan/ton. In the second half of the year, crude oil price fluctuations continued to narrow, and maintenance of some PTA factory equipment was postponed. The high operating rate meant that supply was still sufficient. At the same time, high PTA inventory suppressed the market; with the improvement of domestic clothing and textile consumption and the expected recovery of foreign trade orders, demand is expected to pick up. It formed support for the price, and the market was mainly volatile. On the 28th, the spot offer at the main port in East China was reduced by 125-130 yuan/ton for the 2009 contract, and the offer was reduced by 135 yuan/ton. The negotiation centered on 3470-3510 yuan/ton. The average PTA market price in East China in May was 3,405 yuan/ton, up 6.45% month-on-month and down 44.53% year-on-year. The highest price appeared on the 21st at 3,590 yuan/ton, and the lowest price appeared at 3,240 yuan/ton on the 13th.
MEG
In May, the ethylene glycol market fell first and then rise. In early May, with crude oil prices at low prices, market sentiment was still bearish, and market sentiment waslevel, but as the domestic epidemic situation eases, terminal polyester is expected to increase, and downstream PTA production profits are good, and the demand for raw material PX is strong. PX may be in a slow destocking process. In addition, PX losses intensify, and companies may slightly reduce production. Taken together Look, the PX market fluctuates at a low level and continues to bottom out.
PTA: Jin Lianchuang expects that the PTA market may remain volatile in June. Recently, PTA has been affected by the expected maintenance, and the high operating rate of PTA is expected to be alleviated. Therefore, PTA accumulation has declined; while downstream demand is expected to gradually pick up under the expectation of improvement in domestic clothing and textile consumption and the recovery of foreign trade orders, and will be transmitted to the upstream of the industrial chain. Driven by favorable conditions at both the supply and demand ends, and with the possibility of crude oil prices bottoming out and recovering, PTA prices may fluctuate and rise in the short term. However, PX is currently weak, and with high processing fees, we need to pay attention to whether PTA factory maintenance can be fulfilled as scheduled.
MEG: The ethylene glycol market may be dominated by wide fluctuations in June. The current cost-end crude oil is consolidating at a high level, and the subsequent rise is insufficient. The logic of the ethylene glycol market has returned to fundamentals. From the supply side, domestic equipment production and restart plans coexisted in June, and the pressure on the market from the supply side increased again. From the demand side, although the weaving industry has improved, the current operating load has not yet returned to normal levels. In June, weaving enters the traditional off-season, and the recovery of terminal demand is still a long process. It will take some time for the supply and demand relationship of ethylene glycol to improve, and it is necessary to focus on the port inventory situation.
Polyester PET: Jin Lianchuang predicts that in June, the polyester PET market may fluctuate within a narrow range. From the supply side, the operating rate of polyester PET factories may be basically maintained, but the industry’s overall spot inventory at the end of May is low, and it is expected that there will be little supply pressure in the future. From the demand side, fiber-grade PET downstream was in the traditional consumption off-season in June, but bottle-grade PET downstream was in the traditional consumption peak season, and the overall market demand may be acceptable. Taken together, partial supply pressure in the polyester PET market may appear in mid-June, but the overall market fluctuations may be narrow. We should pay close attention to the trend of international crude oil and the trend of the upstream raw material market in the future.
Polyester fiber: Jin Lianchuang predicts that in June, the polyester fiber market will mainly fluctuate slightly. Recently, PTA has been affected by the expected maintenance and the possibility of bottoming out in crude oil prices. In the short term, PTA prices may fluctuate strongly, and the cost side has solid support. The demand for polyester fiber in May mostly relied on the release of favorable factors from the upstream raw material end, thereby stimulating terminals and traders to restock. Now that crude oil prices are gradually returning to the right track, downstream weaving demand has not rebounded significantly, and the polyester fiber market will enter the traditional off-season. Therefore, the polyester fiber market will fluctuate slightly in June and will still follow the trend of raw materials. </p
