OPEC+ talks to extend the production cut agreement reached a deadlock on Thursday after Iraq said it would guarantee production targets by the end of July, ignoring an ultimatum from Saudi Arabia and Russia to prohibit violations of the production reduction agreement.
Although Saudi Arabia and Russia have agreed to extend record production cuts for one month instead of As previously planned, the extent of production cuts will be reduced from July, but their prerequisite is that all OPEC+ members fully implement their production reduction commitments.
Saudi Aramco is expected to postpone the release of its July crude oil official selling price (OSP) until at least Sunday, pending the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting, two sources familiar with the matter said on Thursday.
International oil prices rose slightly on Thursday. As of the close of the day, the July contract of NYMEX WTI crude oil futures closed at US$37.41 per barrel, an increase of 0.32%; the August contract of ICE Brent crude oil futures closed at US$39.99 per barrel, an increase of 0.50%.
Recently, the domestic protein meal market has experienced strong oscillations. Analysts said that in the medium to long term, the continued recovery of domestic feed demand will provide support for the bottom of protein meal. At the same time, the potential weather rise in the U.S. soybean growth period will provide room for imagination for the market, but the pressure on the spot side may hinder the smoothness of the market.
CBOT soybean futures rose for a third consecutive day on Thursday as new export demand for U.S. supplies emerged and as the U.S. dollar weakened against the Brazilian real, U.S. soybean prices Global buyers are more competitive and more export sales are expected in the coming weeks. The CBOT soybean futures July contract settled at 867.75 cents per bushel, rising to 873.25 cents per bushel, the highest since April 13.
OPEC+ negotiations have reached an impasse, and Saudi Aramco has postponed the announcement of the official selling price of crude oil in July
International oil prices It rose slightly on Thursday. As of the close of the day, the July contract of NYMEX WTI crude oil futures closed at US$37.41 per barrel, an increase of 0.32%; the August contract of ICE Brent crude oil futures closed at US$39.99 per barrel, an increase of 0.50%.
OPEC+ negotiations on extending the production reduction agreement reached a deadlock on Thursday after Iraq said it would ensure that it would meet its production target by the end of July. Ignoring an ultimatum from Saudi Arabia and Russia not to violate production cuts.
Although Saudi Arabia and Russia have agreed to extend record production cuts for one month instead of lowering them from July as previously planned, their preconditions It is for all OPEC+ members to fully fulfill their production reduction commitments.
Informed sources said that Nigeria, Angola and Kazakhstan have fully guaranteed that they will increase their production reduction compliance rate, but Iraq has not done so. Iraq admitted that it has not yet reached its production reduction quota stipulated by OPEC+. Iraq told OPEC that the Kurdish region and other issues were dragging down production cuts. Iraq informed OPEC+ that it would fully implement oil production cuts by the end of July.
Saudi Aramco is expected to postpone the release of its July crude oil official selling price (OSP) until at least Sunday, pending the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting, two sources familiar with the matter said on Thursday. OPEC is still discussing when to hold a ministerial video conference that will decide whether to extend current oil production cuts.
OPEC+ could still hold a meeting this week if Iraq and other non-compliant countries commit to increasing compliance with existing production cuts, OPEC sources said on Thursday.
It is reported that Saudi Aramco usually announces its official crude oil selling price on the fifth day of each month to determine the pricing trend for Iran, Kuwait and Iraq, which affects more than 12 million barrels/ crude oil shipped to Asia.
In response to the shrinking oil demand caused by the epidemic prevention blockade, OPEC+ promised in April to cut production by 9.7 million barrels per day, equivalent to 10% of the total global oil supply. Weeks later, Saudi Arabia and its closest allies in the Gulf agreed to voluntary additional production cuts of 1.2 million barrels per day in June.
Sources revealed that Saudi Arabia and Russia have reached an agreement to extend the current production cuts for one month after July 1, but if they cannot do so before the next meeting (scheduled for June 9 — held on the 10th) has received assurances from Iraq, then OPEC+ will lower its daily production cuts to 7.7 million barrels for the rest of this year.
In Russia, the Kremlin said on Thursday that Russian Energy Minister Novak was continuing to maintain contact with ministers from other OPEC+ members. Contacted, but did not confirm the scheduled time for the meeting to discuss production cuts.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russian President Vladimir Putin currently has no plans to communicate with U.S. President Trump or other heads of state, but noted that energy markets in recent weeks Begin to stabilize.
The recovery of feed demand has become a consensus, and the two grains have found bottom support
Recently, the domestic protein meal market has been relatively volatile. At the close of yesterday’s trading, rapeseed meal and soybean meal rose by more than 1%. The two meal types continued to rise in the night session. Rapeseed meal closed up 1.9%, leading the rise in domestic commodities. Soybean meal also performed well, closing up 1.49%.
In terms of external trading, CBOT soybean futures rose for the third consecutive day on Thursday due to new export demand for U.S. supplies, and as the U.S. dollar weakened against the Brazilian real, the U.S. dollar weakened against the Brazilian real. U.S. soybeans are more competitive for global buyers.Further export sales are expected in the coming weeks. The CBOT soybean futures July contract settled at 867.75 cents per bushel, rising to 873.25 cents per bushel, the highest since April 13.
Zhou Fangying, an agricultural product analyst at Minmetals Economic Futures, said that on the demand side, the recovery of feed demand has basically become the market consensus. In the medium to long term, the number of reproductive sows and live pigs continues to rebound. The year-on-year improvement in protein meal feed demand this year can be said to be a highly certain event, especially in the second quarter and beyond. It can also be seen from the delivery volume in April and May that the demand for soybean meal has improved, the downstream buying interest is strong, and there is a basis for a long market.
On the supply side, U.S. soybeans have fallen below the cost of planting, and it is unlikely that they will continue to fall sharply. And as June and July enter the pod-setting and grain-filling period of soybeans, the impact will be greater from a seasonal perspective. Once the so-called “weather market” occurs, domestic and foreign markets will usher in larger gains.
In addition, he believes that Sino-US relations and the new coronavirus epidemic in Brazil can easily bring risk premiums to the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal. The number of new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Brazil remains high. Although the current epidemic has little impact on the transportation of soybeans at Brazilian ports, it is still an uncertain factor affecting the market. You can refer to the panic rally at the end of March.
“In the medium to long term, the continued recovery of domestic feed demand will provide support for the bottom of protein meal. At the same time, the potential weather rise in the US soybean growth period will provide room for imagination for the market. June to August is recommended. Domestic and foreign soybean prices are mainly bullish on dips.” Zhou Fangying said, but at this stage, the spot price of protein meal is under pressure, especially in some oil mills in South China, Guangxi and other places, where soybean meal inventory has been bulging. In addition, soybean extraction is very profitable, oil plants are actively starting up, and soybean meal stocks are expected to continue to accumulate in the later period. The pressure on the spot side may hinder the smoothness of the market, so you can pay attention to trading opportunities after the correction.
The black series is adjusted at a high level, paying attention to the fundamental differences between varieties
On June 4, domestic black varieties adjusted at a high level, and most varieties fell. Manganese silicon fell by nearly 3%, and iron ore fell by more than 2%.
Tao Rui, a black analyst at China Merchants Futures, said that the overall abundant financial environment is a key factor in the recent strong performance of the black series. On the one hand, it can improve risk tolerance at the spot level, which is reflected in the market’s blunting of continued high inventory and an increase in its own willingness to hoard goods; on the other hand, it can expand the futures trading pool and increase price fluctuations, which Evidence can be obtained from the recent surge in futures account openings and substantial growth in trading volume.
As for the performance differences between varieties within the black plate, he said that they need to be viewed from the perspective of their respective supply and demand. Regarding expectations for terminal demand in real estate and infrastructure, after experiencing several baptisms since the Spring Festival, everyone is basically not bearish in the long term. In the short term, they are not optimistic about seasonal off-season weakness, and they do not even care too much about the latter. Therefore, the core of the recent black trade lies in the supply side, and this is also the main reason for the greater recent increase in iron ore and coke. The former has news of Vale’s declining shipments, and the latter has Shandong’s unexpected production cuts, Anyang’s sudden production cuts, Shanxi production restrictions and other news disturbed. Of course, factors such as early market discounts to spot prices and continued destocking of these two varieties cannot be ignored.
As for the market outlook, Tao Rui said that there are three points that need to be paid attention to:
First of all, whether it is pricing from the interest rate market or from the recent Judging from the central bank’s intensification of credit easing measures, short-term liquidity is facing marginal tightening.
Secondly, the negative effects on the supply side are slowly accumulating. For example, the import window for plates, billets, and coke continues to open, and some imports have recently arrived at the port; the scrap utilization rate of rebar Under the background that the blast furnace has not significantly improved the quality of iron ore, the output has reached a new high, and the upper space has not yet been tested; global manganese ore shipments are recovering rapidly, etc.
Finally, real estate is likely to face a month-on-month decline in construction starts in the third quarter, and the month-on-month performance of infrastructure in the second half of the year may not be too impressive. No matter how abundant funds are, the traditional off-season is always Coming. This does not mean that the subsequent market transaction demand will decline significantly, but the possibility of increased market transaction supply pressure is rising.
He suggested that transactions should be based on the differentiation of supply and demand patterns in each link of the industry. For example, manganese mines, which have the greatest supply pressure in the future, and coking coal, which has returned to normal after the Mongolian coal customs clearance, can consider going short on highs; while coke, iron ore, which has constant supply-side problems, and rebar, where electric furnaces are unprofitable, can consider going long on dips. . </p
