On Saturday (June 27), U.S. oil prices fluctuated and fell, falling by $1.34, or 3.39%. Oil prices fell mainly because concerns about a second outbreak of the epidemic weighed on the outlook for crude oil demand. Concerns about a slow U.S. economic recovery were also detrimental to oil prices. At the same time, the continued increase in U.S. crude oil inventories also put pressure on oil prices. However, OPEC+’s determination to continue cutting production and possible tensions in the Middle East have limited the decline in oil prices.
Concerns over a second outbreak of the epidemic weigh on crude oil demand prospects
According to internal estimates from the U.S. government, more than 20 million people in the United States may have been infected with the virus since the outbreak. , this number is much higher than official statistics, reflecting the fact that many infected people do not show symptoms. Texas Governor Greg Abbott on Thursday paused the state’s economic reopening as COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations surged in the state and daily new cases in the United States rose to near record highs.
Senior U.S. government officials said the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimate was based on serological testing. Serum testing is done to determine whether antibodies are present, which would indicate that a patient has been infected with the virus.
The estimate of 20 million infected people also suggests that the virus’s mortality rate is lower than previously understood. Nearly 122,000 people have died from the coronavirus in the United States, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
Redfield, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said that they collected blood samples through other methods such as new coronavirus testing, blood donation, and laboratory testing, and conducted serological surveys on them. , about 5% to 8% of Americans have been infected with the new coronavirus. He said, “This outbreak is not over, this pandemic is not over. The most powerful tool and weapon we have is social distancing.”
Because Premature reopening of economic activities has led to record increases in COVID-19 cases reported in the three most populous states in the United States in recent days, triggering concerns from all parties.
According to reports, California, Texas and Florida have all recently set records for the highest number of new cases in a single day. According to a data file from Johns Hopkins University, a total of 34,720 new cases were reported in the United States on the 23rd. This was also the third-highest number of new cases in a single day since the beginning of the epidemic. The remaining two days had more cases. All in April. The latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows that the population of these three states accounts for 27.4% of the total U.S. population.
Data from Johns Hopkins University shows that cases have increased in at least 26 states in the United States compared with the previous week. These states include Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Mississippi , Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.
The data also shows that since the beginning of the new coronavirus pandemic, more than 2.37 million people have been infected with the new coronavirus in the United States, resulting in at least 121,870 deaths, accounting for the world’s total number of infections and the global A quarter of the total deaths. CNN chief medical correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta said: “We stopped treatment too early, and the result may be an “exponential increase” in cases. Experts say many places are still unprepared, but due to the reopening of Time was too fast, leading to the recent surge in cases.
The executive director of the Arizona Public Health Association said on the 24th that due to the increase in new cases, Arizona’s hospital system needs to develop an emergency plan . He expects the state’s hospitals to be in surge mode by July 4. The Arizona Public Health Agency said 88% of the state’s ICU beds and 86% of inpatient beds are currently in use. Both figures are record highs since. A new high since the state released statistics in late March.
According to reports, Florida officials pointed out that Miami-Dade County is one of the hardest-hit areas in the state, but they said patients requiring hospitalization appeared to be younger and less ill. One doctor told the newspaper that many of the infections could be attributed to community spread. The observation echoed statements from many city and state leaders in recent days. , especially in the southern region, the statement underlines that infections appear to be shifting towards younger groups. In many cases, including parties and bars, have been the source of recent infections.
Chart: U.S. crude oil 4-hour chart this week
Next week’s non-farm payrolls report is expected to be sluggish and U.S. companies A wave of bankruptcies is coming, and the U.S. economic outlook is worrying, suppressing demand for crude oil
More than a month ago, businesses in many states reopened after closing in mid-March to slow the spread of the new coronavirus epidemic. These businesses are currently Hiring is underway, but other companies are cutting jobs at about the same rate.
Across sectors of the economy, analysts sayThe write-downs are just the beginning, with the shale oil industry expected to experience approximately $300 billion in write-downs. While these impairments don’t directly impact a company’s cash levels, they do worsen already precarious leverage metrics. That’s because writedowns don’t erase the debt accumulated on development drilling projects.
With the coming wave of writedowns, the U.S. shale industry’s leverage ratio could surge from 40% to 54%, potentially triggering “many negative events including bankruptcies.” . Data shows that 18 oil and gas companies have defaulted on their debts this year, compared with 20 in the whole of last year.
Financial stress could trigger a series of last-minute mergers by oil companies unable to repay or refinance debt. Chevron and Exxon Mobil, two of the largest U.S. oil companies, have the financial resources to acquire troubled shale oil companies. But it cannot save the industry’s decline.
The hopes of oil prices and shale oil are all pinned on the global economic recovery. At present, the road to global economic recovery is still full of obstacles. </p
