Brief description of the first part
In June, the upstream and downstream products of the polyester industry chain showed a wide range Oscillatory trend. The fluctuation of international crude oil plays a leading role in the industrial chain market. At the beginning of the month, the OPEC+ production reduction agreement was extended, and international crude oil rebounded steadily. Driven by external favorable conditions, the industrial chain market gradually rose to the high point of the month. However, as the fundamentals of market supply and demand are still weak, in the middle and late half of the year, as international crude oil tends to consolidate, The market lacks sustained positive momentum, and the industrial chain market maintains range consolidation. At the end of the month, under the pressure of falling crude oil, the industrial chain market gradually weakened.
Table 1 The rise and fall rankings of various products in the chemical fiber industry chain in June
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
As shown in Table 1, in terms of month-on-month range, PX (CFR Taiwan) increased by 9.84% month-on-month in June, PTA increased by 5.79% month-on-month, MEG increased by 1.34% month-on-month, polyester chips increased by 3.66% month-on-month, polyester bottle chips increased by 2.18% month-on-month, polyester filament increased by 4.63% month-on-month, and polyester staple fiber increased by 0.77% month-on-month.
Part 2 Analysis of the rise and fall and trend of the chemical fiber industry chain in June
Data source: Jinlianchuang
Jinlianchuang chemical fiber industry chain monitored the performance of 7 chemical fiber products and raw materials Monthly average price, as shown in Figure 1, the monthly average price of chemical fiber products increased in June, with the increase within the month remaining between 1-10%. The biggest increase was PX, up 9.84%, and the smallest increase was polyester filament, up 0.77%.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
From the chemical fiber industry in June Judging from the statistics of the rise and fall of each product in the chain, as shown in Figure 2, the chemical fiber industry chain market fluctuated and rebounded mainly during the month, and the overall decline was sharp compared to the same period last year. From the year-on-year data, it can be seen that the overall decline was between 18-37% Among them, PTA had the largest decline, with a decline of 37.27%, while ethylene glycol had the smallest decline, with a decline of 17.77%.
PX
The Asian PX market fluctuated and rose in June, and as of the end of the month Asian PX is estimated at US$531/ton FOB South Korea and US$551/ton CFR Taiwan/China, up US$69/ton from the end of last month. International crude oil continued to rise at the beginning of the month, and the overall environment has recovered. The raw material naphtha has steadily increased. Driven by costs, the PX market has mainly followed the rise. In addition, corporate losses have intensified, and merchants are not strong in profit-making intentions. Downstream polyester and PTA Construction starts remain at a relatively high level, PX demand is good, and the market is slowly pushing up. However, due to the overall sufficient supply of PX in Asia and the slow destocking of PX, the mentality of the industry has diverged, especially as the foreign epidemic situation has slightly intensified, suppressing market sentiment, and the market has softened slightly. Crude oil still maintains a strong trend in the second half of the year, and some PX production companies have reduced their burdens. Possibly, the domestic Zhenhai Refinery’s 600,000 tons/year PX unit began to shut down for maintenance on June 20, and some downstream PTA maintenance units restarted. The PTA operating rate increased, and the enthusiasm for purchasing raw material PX was high. At the end of the month, Hengli No. 5 PTA new The device is about to be put into production, and merchants expect that demand will still increase in the future, and the offer price remains firm. However, due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the domestic market is closed, and the industry’s trading volume is dull. However, crude oil fell significantly during the holiday, suppressing the PX market sentiment, and the market experienced a slight correction. . At the end of the month, Sinopec announced that the settlement price of PX in June was 4,450 yuan/ton, which was 340 yuan/ton higher than the settlement price last month. The average CFR Taiwan/China price in June was US$533.29/ton, up 9.84% month-on-month and down 35.75% year-on-year. The lowest price was US$474/ton on June 1, and the highest price was US$580/ton on June 24. Ton.
PTA
The PTA spot market fluctuated within a narrow range in June. Transactions were light. At the beginning of the month, crude oil prices fluctuated at high levels, and the cost side provided solid support to the PTA market. Some factories’ PTA equipment has postponed maintenance plans, the operating rate remains high, the supply performance is still sufficient, and the trend of high PTA inventory still restricts market prices. The production and sales of downstream polyester are sluggish, the weaving operating rate has declined, and the PTA market has fallen slightly. On the 11th, the spot offer at the main port in East China was reduced by 85-90 yuan/ton for the 2009 contract, and the offer was reduced by 95 yuan/ton. The negotiation centered on 3590-3610 yuan/ton. In the middle of the year, crude oil prices fluctuated and rebounded, and the cost side drove the PTA market to strengthen. However, Fuhaichuang PTA equipment has resumed normal operation, Hanbang’s 2.2 million tons is expected to heat up and restart, and there is room for upward adjustments in operating rates. Increased supply expectations and its own high inventory have put some pressure on prices, and the market has insufficient mobility. Although the operating rate of downstream polyester has returned to above 88%, terminal orders are still insufficient and polyester production and sales are weak. On the 18th, the spot offer at the main port in East China was reduced by 80-85 yuan/ton for the 2009 contract, and the offer was reduced by 85-90 yuan/ton. The negotiation centered on 3600-3630 yuan/ton. In the second half of the year, crude oil prices fluctuated and fell, driving the PTA market to weaken on the cost side. Hanbang’s 2.2 million-ton unit discharged material, Shanghai Petrochemical’s 400,000-ton unit and Yangzi Petrochemical’s 350,000-ton unit heated up and restarted. The operating rate was increased, PTA supply increased, and high inventory continued to suppress market prices. The operating rate of downstream polyester remains high, but polyester production and sales are weak, terminal demand is poor, and there is no substantial positive boost in the traditional off-season. On the 29th, the spot offer at the main port in East China was reduced by 80-85 yuan/ton for the 2009 contract, and the offer was reduced by 90-95 yuan/ton.�The early raw material inventory is mainly digested, the purchasing mentality is cautious, production and sales are weak, and polyester filament inventory has increased. As of now, the average market price of polyester filament POY in East China is 5,605 yuan/ton, up 4.63% month-on-month and down 27.59% year-on-year. The highest price was 5,750 yuan/ton on June 9, and the lowest price was 5,400 yuan/ton on the 30th. /Ton.
Part 4 Forecast and Outlook
Jin Lianchuang Forecast, The polyester industry chain market may show a range-bound pattern in July. As the current epidemic situation abroad is still severe, there is little room for crude oil to continue to rise. The market for polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol may adjust broadly next month, with average cost support. Terminal weaving demand is still weak, and in the traditional off-season, market production and sales are sluggish, and weak demand puts pressure on the market. Therefore, the overall trend of the polyester product market in July may continue to consolidate. The following is the market outlook for each product:
PX: Jin Lianchuang expects the PX market to consolidate strongly in July. Due to the continued losses of PX companies, the operating rates of PX in Japan and South Korea are relatively low. In addition, if the new Hengli PTA device is put into production as planned, the demand for PX is expected to increase. However, the same PX device of Weilian Chemical is planned to be put into production, but whether it can go into operation in July There is still uncertainty about the start of production. Considering that the foreign epidemic situation is still severe, there is not much room for crude oil to continue to rise. Under the stalemate between long and short, the PX market may consolidate strongly next month, and the direction is not strong.
PTA: Jin Lianchuang predicts that the PTA market may remain volatile in July. Some PTA devices have introduced maintenance plans, but new devices have been put into production, and the overall supply has not changed much. However, high inventory still suppresses the market; while downstream demand is weak, although the polyester operating rate remains at a high level of around 88%, terminal weaving Demand follow-up is average, and textile orders are scarce. The market lacks substantial positive support, and PTA prices may maintain a volatile trend in the short term. It is still necessary to pay attention to the PTA maintenance situation and downstream recovery status.
MEG: The ethylene glycol market will continue to fluctuate widely in July. International crude oil is unable to catch up and maintain high fluctuations, and its cost support for ethylene glycol is acceptable. In addition, naphtha and ethylene prices are strong. With profit losses across all routes, there is limited room for ethylene glycol to fall. However, as domestic maintenance equipment is gradually restarted, the supply side of ethylene glycol remains loose. After the demand side enters the traditional off-season, downstream polyester production and sales are light. The raw materials and product inventories of terminal weaving companies are at high levels, and their ability to continue stocking is limited. The current supply and demand pattern of ethylene glycol is difficult to achieve a significant destocking, and the fundamentals are in a stalemate. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate at low levels and in a wide range in the future. It is also necessary to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and the impact of the commissioning of new equipment on ethylene glycol.
Polyester PET: Jin Lianchuang expects the polyester PET market to fluctuate in July. From a supply perspective, the operating rate of polyester PET factories may remain high, and industry inventories are generally high at the end of June. It is expected that there will be little supply pressure in the market outlook. From the demand side, fiber-grade PET downstream is in the traditional consumption off-season in July, but bottle-grade PET downstream is in the traditional consumption peak season, and the market consolidation demand may be acceptable. Taken together, the overall fluctuation range of the polyester PET market in July may be narrow. In the future, we should pay close attention to the trend of international crude oil and the trend of the upstream raw material market.
Polyester fiber: Jin Lianchuang predicts that the polyester fiber market will be weak and stable in July. Due to the lack of substantial positive support in the polyester market, PTA prices may maintain a volatile trend next month, with average cost-side support. The polyester fiber factory maintains high load operation, and with the successive commissioning of new equipment, supply pressure continues to increase. In addition, the international epidemic has repeatedly dragged down the polyester market confidence. In the traditional off-season, orders from downstream terminals are weak, corporate capital and inventory pressures are gradually increasing, and operating rates are difficult to increase, resulting in insufficient demand for polyester fiber, and only necessary procurement of raw materials is maintained. Lord. Affected by this, the polyester fiber market will be weak and stable in July. </p
