As we all know, the large-scale refining and chemical integration project has developed by leaps and bounds, and the PTA industry chain has ushered in a turning year. The industry chain continues to expand upstream, realizing the full range of “crude oil-PX-PTA-polyester” With the industrial chain development model, the company has also achieved substantial business operations across the entire industry chain from “a drop of oil” to “a thread”. In the process of development, the chemical fiber industry chain industry pattern has also emerged with new characteristics. However, this year’s new crown epidemic coupled with the plummeting oil prices has caused the price of the chemical fiber industry chain to hit new lows repeatedly. At the same time, there have been substantial changes in supply and demand data, and the chemical fiber industry chain has also We are experiencing the coldest “winter” in recent years. The overall inventory of the PTA industry was once overstocked, and most companies were also facing difficulties in production and operation. Although there was some rebound in the market in the second quarter, the main contract futures fluctuated around 3,600-3,700 yuan, and the price remained at a historically low level.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
Entering 2020, the PTA market has opened a downward channel. The main reason is that the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and downstream polyester factories have entered maintenance as expected. The demand for PTA has weakened, and the market supply exceeds demand. The pattern did not change substantially, but then downstream terminal loom workers returned home one after another, texturing and weaving companies mostly stopped for holidays, and polyester companies also started holiday mode one after another. The industry gradually left the market, and demand entered a freezing period, which became the reason for the decline of PTA. fuse.
In the first quarter, the PTA market experienced a sharp decline, with prices hitting a record low
During the Spring Festival, due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, industry concerns about economic recovery and poor demand prospects, international oil prices hit a new low, and PTA costs and mentality continued to be hit hard; the seasonal off-season was superimposed on the impact of the epidemic, and downstream demand It continued to shrink. Under this pressure, the PTA futures market ended at the limit on the first day after returning from the holiday. Next, the market will mainly digest the negative effects caused by the epidemic and repair the market. Although the PTA market has rebounded, the overall height is limited. Subsequently, affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, the recovery of downstream polyester and terminal demand was less than expected. PTA faced high inventory pressure, and the market continued to be weak. Immediately afterwards, the PTA market experienced a historic plunge, mainly due to the collapse of the crude oil production reduction agreement. The plunge in oil prices caused costs to collapse. PTA futures prices jumped to the limit. In the following period, oil-producing countries failed to reach an agreement on a new production reduction plan, and oil prices continued to plummet. It brought negative effects to the PTA market, and PTA also started a plummeting and new low situation.
The market continued to be weak in the second quarter, and overseas epidemics were bad for demand
Entering April, oil-producing countries intend to reduce production, oil prices have stopped falling and rebounded. In addition, the macroeconomic benefits have boosted the PTA market, which rebounded within a narrow range, but the overall strength is limited. The crude oil production reduction was less than expected, and on April 22, short sellers poured into the June contract to force the oil price to plummet. The PTA market once again jumped short and fell to the limit, ushering in a low price of 3,128 yuan again. However, PTA’s own fundamentals are weak, the contradiction between supply and demand is becoming increasingly prominent, and the overseas epidemic has adversely affected terminal demand. The PTA market is still not good. However, in May, the market has been rising in a narrow range. The restart of the peripheral economy has improved demand expectations and the PTA factory equipment has been frequently inspected. The reduction in supply has driven the PTA market higher, but PTA inventories remain high. At the same time, downstream demand is weak, and the market lacks substantial positive boost, leaving a strong wait-and-see attitude. With the improvement of domestic clothing and textile consumption and the expected recovery of foreign trade orders, demand is expected to pick up and provide support for prices. However, in June, crude oil prices fluctuated and declined, and the cost side drove the PTA market to weaken. At the same time, the maintenance equipment of the PTA factory has resumed, and the market demand has not improved significantly during the traditional off-season. At the end of the second quarter, Hengli put into operation a new equipment of 2.5 million tons, of which 1.25 million tons have produced qualified products. The oversupply situation has enveloped the market, and the mentality is slightly Showing pessimism, the market continues to fluctuate in a range.
Prospects for PTA market trends in the second half of 2020
First of 2020 In the past six months, the PTA market trend has been described as “thrilling”. The PTA market under the epidemic has hit a record low. However, after entering the second half of the year, as the epidemic eases, the PTA market may usher in a round of recovery. However, because its own supply and demand fundamentals are still weak, market prices have insufficient upward momentum.
From a cost perspective, Jin Lianchuang believes that the Asian PX market may fluctuate at the bottom in the second half of 2020, and the international epidemic still restricts terminal demand, increasing market uncertainty. Certainty. In addition, two new PX devices are planned to be put into operation in the second half of the year, with a total production capacity of 1.8 million tons/year. Most of the domestic large-scale PX devices are for PX-PTA self-use, and the overall supply remains stable. However, there are also many new downstream PTA devices in the second half of the year. The device is put into operation, and there is room for improvement in PX demand. In addition, PX has suffered serious long-term losses, and foreign PX operating rates are expected to be further reduced. Taken together, the market may consolidate in the third quarter and look for recovery opportunities in the fourth quarter.
From the perspective of supply and demand, affected by the epidemic in the first half of the year, the demand side experienced a significant decrease, and domestic PTA inventory remained at a relatively high level. Although the demand side recovered in the second quarter, the overall The intensity is still not as good as the same period in previous years. With the concentration of new devices put into production in the second half of the year, the pattern of oversupply has emerged. However, the downstream polyester seasonal off-season, the terminal order situation is not optimistic. Overall, the new PTA devices in the second half of the year will be…Weak production and demand may lead to an imbalance in supply and demand. However, driven by the recovery of the crude oil market, there is still some room for growth in gold, silver and silver PTA, and there may be a weak and volatile pattern in the fourth quarter. </p
