The prosperity monitoring results of the China Textile Federation Circulation Branch show that in June 2020, the prosperity index of the national textile and apparel professional market managers was 46.83, a decrease of 4.30 percentage points from 51.13 in May; the prosperity index of professional market merchants was 48.33, an increase from 51.13 in May. It dropped 1.80 percentage points from 50.13 in May. In June, the textile and apparel professional market entered the traditional sales off-season, and the overall operating situation declined. In addition, a cluster of epidemics occurred again in Beijing’s Xinfadi Wholesale Market, which has aroused great attention from various industries to epidemic prevention and control in professional markets. Under the dual effects of strict prevention of the rebound of the epidemic and the traditional sales off-season, the textile and apparel professional market sentiment index has declined.
1. Managers’ prosperity and merchants’ prosperity declined
Data display , in June, the various prosperity indexes of national textile and apparel professional market managers and merchants fell.
1. Managers’ prosperity index dropped by 4.30 percentage points
Chart 1 Manager Index List
Data source: China Textile Federation Circulation Branch Statistics
From the perspective of the manager’s climate index, among the total index, the manager’s climate index in June was 46.83, down 4.30 percentage points from 51.13 in May; the business environment index was 48.39, down from 51.13 in May. 49.03 decreased by 0.64 percentage points.
Among the sub-indexes, the total operating volume index was 45.81, down 6.77 percentage points from 52.58 in May; the logistics shipment volume index was 47.10, down 5.48 percentage points from 52.58 in May; the passenger flow index was 47.10, down 5.48 percentage points from 52.58 in May; 46.45, down 5.81 percentage points from 52.26 in May; the opening rate index was 45.81, down 3.87 percentage points from 49.68 in May; the rent index was 45.81, down 0.96 percentage points from 46.77 in May; the e-commerce sales index was 50.00, This was a decrease of 2.90 percentage points from 52.90 in May.
2. The Merchant Prosperity Index fell by 1.80 percentage points
Chart 2 Merchant Index List
Data source: China Textile Federation Circulation Branch Statistics
From the perspective of merchant prosperity index, among the total index, merchant prosperity in June The index was 48.33, down 1.80 percentage points from 50.13 in May; the business environment index was 48.01, down 0.82 percentage points from 48.83 in May.
Among the sub-indexes, the sales volume index was 46.30, down 4.60 percentage points from 50.90 in May; the average selling price index was 45.89, down 3.97 percentage points from 49.86 in May; The profitability index was 46.51, down 3.35 percentage points from 49.86 in May; the comprehensive cost index was 50.62, up 1.17 percentage points from 49.45 in May; the inventory index was 52.05, up 1.08 percentage points from 50.97 in May; e-commerce sales The index was 48.63, down 1.09 percentage points from 49.72 in May.
2. Data analysis
1. Rental pressure continues in the professional market Increase
Since the beginning of this year, the rental index in the professional market has shown greater pressure. From January to February, the rental index in the professional market was 29.03, and in March it was 48.39 , the professional market rental index in April was 47.42, the professional market rental index in May was 46.77, and the professional market rental index in June was 45.81, continuing to decline by 0.96 percentage points on the basis of May. In the first half of this year, the rental index in the professional market has always been lower than 50 and continues to decline. It can be seen that the subsequent impact of the epidemic has been more serious at the rental level in the professional market. There are many situations such as tenant withdrawals, rent declines, and rent arrears. Professionals The market may face more new tests in the post-epidemic era, and should adapt to the new situation as soon as possible, adjust its role, and optimize and upgrade.
2. Merchant cost pressure and inventory pressure have eased slightly
In June, merchants’ cost pressure and inventory pressure eased slightly, and the index rebounded. The comprehensive cost index was 50.62, an increase of 1.17 percentage points from 49.45 in May; the inventory index was 52.05, an increase of 1.08 percentage points from 50.97 in May. In June, the professional market entered the off-season, and all indices fell. Only the comprehensive cost index and inventory index showed an upward trend. Both indices are above the 50 line and are gradually rising, which shows that the operating pressure of merchants is gradually easing.
3. The prediction index is all lower than 50
Data display , for managers, the manager’s prosperity index for the next period is 48.06, down 0.97 percentage points from 49.03 in May; the business environment index for the next period is 48.06, down 0.65 percentage points from 48.71 in May. In terms of merchants, the merchant prosperity index for the next period is 48.01, down 1.02 percentage points from 49.03 in May; the business environment index for the next period is 47.95, down 0.46 percentage points from 48.41 in May. In terms of prediction index, the four prediction indexes of managers and merchants have fallen back, and are overall below the 50 boom-bust line. It can be seen that the market and merchants are still insufficiently confident in the future situation of the industry, and the sales off-season in the textile and apparel professional market may continue until July. moon.
Attachment:
1. Monitoring methods
The “Textile and Garment Professional Market Sentiment Index” consists of two parts: “Manager Index” and “Merchant Index”. Using a sampling method, markets and merchants in different business categories such as clothing, fabrics, home textiles, and small commodities were selected across the country to fill in the manager’s prosperity index survey respectively.Questionnaire and business climate index.
2. Monitoring samples
The manager’s prosperity sample is provided by Guangzhou Baima It consists of 32 professional textile and clothing markets, including Beijing Tianya Women’s Clothing Building, Jiangsu Dieshiqiao Home Textile Market, Shanghai Xinqipu Clothing Market, and Liaoning Xiliu Clothing Market. The merchant prosperity sample consists of more than 150 merchants, including Taotao Clothing, Muzi Caowu, Ruili Hanshi, and Zhedi Clothing.
3. Monitoring cycle
The business climate monitoring cycle is based on monthly units , submitted at the end of each month and released at the beginning of the following month.
4. Index composition
“Textile and apparel professional market sentiment index “In It is composed of six secondary indexes: total amount index, logistics shipment volume index, passenger flow index, open rate index, rent index, and e-commerce sales index.
The “merchant index” consists of the merchant prosperity index of the current period, the merchant prosperity index of the next period, the business environment index of the current period, and the business climate index of the next period. The environmental index is composed of four primary indices; the “current merchant prosperity index” is composed of six secondary indices: sales volume index, average selling price index, profitability index, comprehensive cost index, inventory index, and e-commerce sales index.
5. Index analysis
Positive index includes managers’ operations Total index, logistics shipment volume index, customer flow index, merchant opening rate index, rent index, e-commerce sales proportion index and merchant sales index, average selling price index, profit index, e-commerce sales proportion index. If the positive index exceeds 50, it means that the business situation is optimistic. The larger the value, the more optimistic it is. If the positive index is lower than 50, it means the business situation is not optimistic. The smaller the value, the more pessimistic it is.
The reverse index includes merchant cost index and inventory index. If the cost and expense index exceeds 50, it means that the merchant’s cost pressure is decreasing. The larger the value, the smaller the cost pressure. The cost and expense index is lower than 50, which means that the merchant’s cost pressure is increasing. The smaller the number, the greater the cost pressure. If the inventory index exceeds 50, it means that the merchant’s inventory pressure is decreasing. The larger the value, the smaller the inventory pressure. The inventory index is lower than 50, which means the merchant’s inventory pressure is increasing. The smaller the value, the greater the inventory pressure. </p
