Market Profile
Viewpoint strategy
PTA fluctuated last week, with TA009 closing at 3556 on Friday, up 10 points (+0.28%) for the whole week, and the spot processing fee was reduced to around 590 yuan/ton. , there is still room for compression. Ethylene glycol rose in shock, with EG009 closing at 3594 on Friday, up 79 points (-2.27%) for the whole week. International oil prices fluctuate, PX monthly replacement prices have increased, and PTA processing fees continue to be compressed. Upstream PX’s PX-PTA supply and demand mismatch problem has been slightly alleviated as Hengli’s new PTA equipment has been put into full production. On the downstream side, with the deepening of the traditional off-season and the recurrence of overseas epidemics, terminal orders have been relatively light, and there are no obvious signs of improvement in a short period of time. The weak terminal demand has dragged down the start-up of looms to further decline, and the demand for polyester has also declined. weaken. Inventories in the polyester segment have further accumulated, and filament POY and FDY have continued to suffer losses. Under double extrusion, some factories have successively reduced production and load, and the polyester load has declined slightly. If the contradiction continues to ferment in the future, there is still room for decline in polyester production, and this round of production cuts The cycle is expected to last at least until the end of the month, and the low point of the operating rate remains to be seen. In terms of ethylene glycol, the efficiency of various production routes is low, and most coal chemical industries are also in a state of loss. The commissioning of new equipment is delayed. There is not much room for further load reduction, and there is a certain cost support. But the overall situation is weak. Overall, PTA processing fees have room for further compression before large-scale maintenance occurs, and polyester raw material prices may continue to follow the weak trend of crude oil prices.
Main risk points
1. The progress of the epidemic has triggered a sharp decline in downstream demand, which will compress raw material profits upward.
2. OPEC+’s ineffective implementation of production cuts has triggered a further collapse of the center of gravity of crude oil prices.
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