Since the beginning of this year, driven by the epidemic, Zheng Mian has reached a historic low, and then started a fluctuating upward rhythm. The rise and fall process in the middle is also full of drama. Sometimes it is a real upward move, sometimes it is a false breakthrough. , in short, compared with the hearty market trends of other varieties, Zheng cotton will obviously make investors lose their patience. The author’s view is very clear about the future trend. There is limited room for rise and fall within this year. The roller coaster market staged in the past two days is a good proof.
According to the latest data, there have been a total of 15,340,287 confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide, and a total of 625,072 deaths. Compared with the previous day, there were 277,023 new confirmed cases and 6,950 new deaths in a single day.
The author believes that although the global COVID-19 epidemic continues to worsen, the financial market has been rising. It is obvious that the impact of the current epidemic has not been transmitted to it in time, and the risk is very high. Once crude oil reflects the epidemic and there is a correction, other Commodity prices are struggling to hold up. Just like the Sino-US economic and trade friction that broke out in early 2018, the financial market did not respond in time. It was not until the third quarter of that year that commodities and stock markets experienced a round of decline. Now, as the epidemic continues, the market’s response to the new crown epidemic has gradually become numb, but the impact may be late, not absent. Once the epidemic spreads to the financial market again, the stock and futures markets will most likely experience a downward trend, and cotton will not be immune.
Although most commodities are expected to rise in price, the road to rise will not be smooth sailing. For cotton, the early bottom has been consolidated. Especially in the third quarter, many commodities have realized a bull market. However, cotton prices are basically still hovering in the bottom range, with limited room for growth. This means that in the future market correction process , the magnitude of cotton’s retracement is also limited.
Of course, don’t expect too much about the market situation in the second half of the year. After all, there are many uncertain events that are expected, such as Sino-US relations, the global epidemic, etc. Although there is a strong expectation of rising value to restore value, the pressure above is so great that it may not be easy to break through. In addition, it is about to enter the peak production season of the Golden Nine and Silver Ten, which will also have an important impact on the cotton price trend. If domestic and foreign orders are better than expected, cotton prices may continue to rise, otherwise they will maintain a bottom-line shock trend in the mid-term. In the long term, it is reasonable for cotton prices to rise. After all, raw material prices will not be lower than their cost and value for a long time because the market will adjust itself. </p
