Fabric Products,Fabric Information,Fabric Factories,Fabric Suppliers Fabric News Focus on China Contracting, ICE Cannot Escape from Interval Oscillation

Focus on China Contracting, ICE Cannot Escape from Interval Oscillation



According to the agreement reached by China and the United States in January this year, officials from China and the United States are expected to meet every six months to evaluate the implementation of the agr…

According to the agreement reached by China and the United States in January this year, officials from China and the United States are expected to meet every six months to evaluate the implementation of the agreement. An anonymous source said that the trade negotiation teams of China and the United States are expected to hold talks in August.

Sources said that this meeting will be an “important turning point” to allow both parties to evaluate the implementation of the transaction; in addition, Hurricane “Hanna” is just here to increase the heat, which will have a negative impact on the western Texas plateau region. The high temperature and drought will have little effect in alleviating the situation, but may cause losses to the quality and yield of cotton in southern Texas; while the Federal Reserve’s maintenance of interest rates of 0-0.25% is in line with market expectations, and the decline of the US dollar and other positive factors have triggered a rebound in commodity futures and an increase in U.S. stocks. The main ICE futures contract has temporarily stopped falling and stabilized between 61.5 and 62 cents/pound, and bulls are preparing to break through the 62 cents/pound mark again.

Several foreign businessmen and large cotton trading companies said that the current focus of the entire ICE, Zheng Cotton, investment institutions and cotton-related companies is whether Chinese buyers will continue to sign contracts for procurement in 2020/21 in July/August. U.S. cotton (it is expected that some of the 2019/20 contracts will be transferred to the next year, and the statistics should not be repeated). Other purchases from Vietnam, Pakistan, Indonesia, Turkey, etc. are “piecemeal”, and the support for ICE’s market price and bull confidence is not strong. big.

However, considering that so far, neither China nor the United States has threatened to cancel the first phase of the trade agreement reached in January (although the United States continues to “pass the blame” to China for the epidemic, from political, military and other aspects Provoke and stimulate China, but Trump has not threatened to impose tariffs on Chinese goods or take other measures to punish Chinese companies exporting products to the United States). Therefore, it is expected that as the main ICE contract falls below 62 cents/pound and US cotton exports Enterprises and international cotton traders are increasingly willing to take the initiative to lower the basis of US cotton in 2020/21, and Chinese buyers are likely to be more enthusiastic about placing real orders.

As for the short-term ICE market trend, an international cotton trader judged that the long and short sides will still compete around 62 cents/pound. The pattern of “bottom below, top above” remains unchanged, and there is no big economic impact. , policies, and reforms are good for stimulus, but it is difficult to get above 65 cents/pound. On the one hand, the Republican Party’s new $1 trillion fiscal stimulus plan came late (more than two months later than the Democratic Party), but the amount, objects, etc. It is the focus of the debate between the two parties on the new round of stimulus package. The game cannot be avoided, but there is really not much time left for the two parties. Unemployment benefits will expire at the end of July. Under the wave of bankruptcies, 31.8 million people are unemployed. will be “waiting for food”; at the same time, loans to small businesses have long been exhausted (the US Congress has already provided an additional $484 billion at the end of April); on the other hand, not only is the new crown epidemic in India a “king bomb”, CCI cotton stocks are also a big blow to the global cotton market. He is also a “king bomb”. So far, CCI has purchased a total of 12.1 million bales of cotton, but has only signed a contract for 900,000 bales (it is rumored that the Indian government is negotiating with Bangladesh to export 1.5-2 million bales of cotton to the country). CCI continues to reduce prices and promotes a large number of medium and high quality products in unlimited quantities. Cotton’s “two-pronged approach” has an impact on ICE and the global cotton spot market that cannot be underestimated. Furthermore, the COVID-19 epidemic has broken out for the second time in Asia and Europe (the United States, South America, and Africa are still at the “epicenter” of the first epidemic). The impact on the resumption of work and production, trade, transportation, retail, etc. of enterprises is still difficult to predict. The recovery of cotton consumption demand The possibility of an “abrupt stop” or even a U-turn downward cannot be ruled out. </p

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Author: clsrich

 
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