A brief description of the first part
In July, the overall upstream and downstream products of the polyester industry chain were at a low level Fluctuating trends. International crude oil fluctuates at a high level above US$40/barrel, forming certain support for the market. With the cost-side fluctuations coming to an end, the polyester industry chain market has returned to fundamentals. In the first half of the year, due to high inventory and low demand, the polyester raw material market continued to weaken. Under cost pressure, the polyester product market declined weakly. Starting from the second half of the year, macroeconomic sentiment has warmed, and the polyester raw material market has begun to rebound. With cost support, the decline in the polyester product market has temporarily stopped, and the market has gradually tended to consolidate.
Table 1 The rise and fall rankings of various products in the chemical fiber industry chain in July:
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
As shown in Table 1, in terms of month-on-month range, PX (CFR Taiwan) increased by 1.78 month-on-month in July %, PTA fell 2.19% month-on-month, MEG fell 1.51% month-on-month, polyester chips fell 6.35% month-on-month, polyester bottle flakes fell 5.14% month-on-month, polyester filament fell 10.17% month-on-month, and polyester staple fiber fell 6.85% month-on-month.
Part 2 Analysis of the rise and fall and trend of the chemical fiber industry chain in July
Data source: Jinlianchuang
Jinlian Chuang Chemical Fiber Industry Chain has monitored the monthly average prices of 7 chemical fiber products and raw materials. As shown in Figure 1, only PX has increased in the monthly average price of chemical fiber products in July, and the monthly average prices of other products have declined to varying degrees. Among them, in July The internal decline range is between 2-10%. The largest decrease was PX, which rose by 9.84%, and the smallest increase was polyester filament, which rose by 0.77%.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
Judging from the statistics of the rise and fall of various products in the chemical fiber industry chain in July, as shown in Figure 2, the chemical fiber industry chain market was mainly weak and volatile during the month, and the overall level declined significantly compared with the same period last year. It can be seen from the year-on-year data that The overall decline ranged from 20 to 43%, with the largest decline being PTA, which dropped 43.43%, and the smallest decline being ethylene glycol, which dropped 19.77%.
The third part: market analysis of the main products of the chemical fiber chain
PX
In July, the Asian PX market fluctuated strongly, but the increase was limited. As of the end of the month, Asian PX was estimated at US$525/ton FOB South Korea and US$543/ton. CFR Taiwan/China increased by US$15/ton and US$13/ton respectively from the end of last month.
At the beginning of the month, the PX market was in a stalemate. Zhenhai Refining and Chemical’s 600,000 tons/year PX unit restarted, and domestic supply increased. In addition, the entire polyester chain had bearish sentiments. , merchants are worried that terminal demand will be difficult to increase, but crude oil remains strong, the industry chain sentiment is good, merchants’ offers are firm, PTA starts are high, and demand for PX is good, supporting market sentiment.
In the first half of the year, WTI crude oil basically fluctuated around US$40/barrel, the upstream raw material market fluctuated little, and PX basically kept up with the downstream market trend. Although supply and demand are currently booming, PX and PTA The inventory level is still high. In addition, the foreign epidemic situation has seriously suppressed market sentiment. Merchants mainly ship goods according to the market. At the end of the month, merchants mainly focus on ACP negotiations. The market atmosphere is dull. Although the upstream market is relatively stable, due to the tension between China and the United States, PX buying sentiment is average. , coupled with the continued weakness in terminal polyester demand, merchants have increased their intention to sell PX cargo in September and October.
At the end of the month, Sinopec announced that the settlement price of PX in July was 4,420 yuan/ton, which was 30 yuan/ton lower than the settlement price last month. The average CFR Taiwan/China price in July was US$542.77/ton, up 1.78% month-on-month and down 36.11% year-on-year. The lowest price was US$534/ton on July 1, and the highest price was US$552/ton on July 24. Ton.
PTA
In July, the PTA spot market first declined and then rose. , the overall transaction situation is average. At the beginning of the month, crude oil prices consolidated at a high level, and the cost side provided solid support to the PTA market. The new PTA equipment was put into operation, the operating rate remained high, and the inventory continued to be high, suppressing the market price. End-use textile orders are insufficient, weaving operation rates are declining, downstream polyester profits are declining, production companies are strongly willing to reduce production, and PTA supply and demand fundamentals are weak.
On the 9th, the spot offer at the main port in East China was reduced by 70-75 yuan/ton for the 2009 contract, and the offer was reduced by 80 yuan/ton. The negotiation centered on 3530-3570 yuan/ton. In the middle of the year, international crude oil prices operated within a narrow range, the PX market fluctuated and consolidated, and the cost side formed a certain support for the PTA market. Hengli Petrochemical’s 2.5 million tons new unit is operating normally, the operating rate remains high, and PTA supply is sufficient, continuing the inventory accumulation pattern. Moreover, the output reduction efforts of downstream polyester factories are average, demand continues to be sluggish, inventory has accumulated, terminal weaving production and sales are weak, there is a lack of substantial positive support, and the fundamentals of PTA supply and demand are weak.
On the 23rd, the spot offer at the main port in East China was reduced by 50-55 yuan/ton for the 2009 contract, and the offer was reduced by 55-60 yuan/ton. The negotiation centered on 3480-3520 yuan/ton. . In the second half of the year, international crude oil prices fluctuated at high levels, the PX market fluctuated and consolidated, and the cost side provided solid support to the PTA market. The external economic atmosphere is relatively strong and macro sentiment is warming, boosting the PTA market. However, the new PTA equipment is operating normally, and high construction and high inventory suppress the market to a certain extent. and gather downstreamThe results were average, with only FDY increasing in volume, downstream purchasing at low prices, and the market trading atmosphere being average. Towards the end of the month, polyester raw materials are on the warm side and fluctuate. Polyester filament factories are more willing to raise prices. Quotations are often raised, and discounts are narrowed. Downstream companies are appropriately following up on orders while digesting the early stocking of raw materials. Polyester production and sales are partially increasing, and market transactions are The investment atmosphere has improved. As of now, the average market price of polyester filament POY in East China is 5,050 yuan/ton, down 10.17% month-on-month and 39.53% year-on-year. The highest price appeared on July 1 at 5,350 yuan/ton, and the lowest price appeared on July 20. 4850 yuan/ton.
Part 4 Forecast and Outlook
Jin Lianchuang predicts that the polyester industry chain market may maintain a volatile pattern in August. With the gradual recovery of demand, international oil prices are on the rise. The polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol markets are still likely to rebound upward next month, and costs are facing increased market support. However, terminal weaving demand is still weak, and in the traditional off-season, market production and sales are sluggish, and weak demand continues to drag down the market. Therefore, the overall trend of the polyester product market in August may continue to consolidate. The following is the market outlook for each product:
PX: Jin Lianchuang predicts that the PX market will remain stalemate in August and will not be directional. At present, PX companies are still suffering serious losses, so it is unlikely that the supply will increase. However, Weilian Chemical plans to put a 1 million tons/year PX device into production, and under the severe international epidemic situation, terminal polyester demand is weak, and merchants are cautious. Judging from the view, the PX market will mainly be weak and consolidate next month, and it is easy to fall but difficult to rise.
PTA: Jin Lianchuang predicts that the PTA market will be mainly volatile in August, and does not rule out the possibility of slight strengthening. In August, some PTA devices introduced maintenance plans, and the overall supply pressure eased; while the operating rate of downstream polyester remained high, and low-price promotions allowed the on-site inventory to be digested. However, the combination of high PTA operating operations and high inventory increased the pressure on the market. At the same time, poor terminal demand performance, sluggish domestic sales and poor export sales have also weakened the demand for PTA. Therefore, the PTA market may remain volatile in the short term. However, driven by the strength of the crude oil and commodity markets, a slight strengthening cannot be ruled out.
MEG: The ethylene glycol market is expected to be volatile in August. At this stage, all ethylene glycol process routes are experiencing varying degrees of profit losses, resulting in an increase in unexpected maintenance at upstream factories and a lack of willingness to restart maintenance equipment. The operating load of upstream factories has always remained at a low level. In addition, the market spot price valuation is low, which can easily attract long funds to enter the market. Moreover, as the delivery date approaches, the spot price of ethylene glycol further moves closer to the futures price. However, the current high level of port inventory is difficult to reduce, which still suppresses market prices. The overall trend of the ethylene glycol market in August is expected to be warmer, but it is difficult to see a sharp rise.
Polyester PET: Jin Lianchuang predicts that the polyester PET market may fluctuate widely in August. The raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol may fluctuate strongly next month, and the cost-end support is acceptable. From the supply side, polyester PET factories have few plans to reduce production in August, and there are still new devices put into operation. The operating rate may remain high. It is expected that supply pressure will increase in the future. From the demand side, although the fiber-grade PET downstream slicing mills are still expected to reduce their sales in August, the downstream polyester industry will gradually usher in the traditional consumption peak season, and the bottle-grade PET downstream is still in the traditional consumption peak season. The overall demand for the polyester PET market may still be Can. Taken together, the overall fluctuation range of the polyester PET market in August may be relatively large. In the future, we should pay close attention to the trend of international crude oil and the trend of the upstream raw material market.
Polyester fiber: Jin Lianchuang predicts that the polyester fiber market will first increase and then decrease in August. The market or prices of PTA and ethylene glycol will rise next month, and the cost-side support is acceptable. Polyester fiber factories are currently near the cost line, and the inventory pressure is still acceptable, so there may be a rebound at the beginning of the month. However, in August, the overall production reduction of factories was average, and as new devices continued to be put into production, supply pressure continued to increase. In the traditional off-season, orders from downstream weaving companies have not improved, and the policy of reducing production and suspension in the early stage has been maintained. It is difficult to increase the production start-up, and manufacturers are under heavy inventory pressure. Therefore, the price will start to fall in the middle of the month. Affected by this, in August, the polyester fiber market will first rise and then fall. </p
