At present, the launch of PTA production capacity is less affected by the epidemic and is basically launched as planned. The total production capacity has reached 52.23 million tons. However, the launch of downstream polyester production capacity has been delayed in many cases, and the terminal order situation is not optimistic. Supply and demand are both weak. In the second half of the year PTA tired library is still the main tone.
In the short term, the upward and downward drivers of PTA spot futures are limited. Presenting a dilemma. The trend of PTA throughout July was mainly affected by macro policies, public health events, PTA production equipment and downstream polyester production and sales, with the oscillation range maintained at 3450-3700 yuan/ton. Entering the second half of the year, it is difficult for downstream polyester to make a big improvement, while the high inventory pressure of PTA is difficult to solve, and the processing difference is still at a high level. Therefore, we believe that PTA will face greater downward pressure in the future, and it is advisable to place long-term short orders. .
PX inventory pressure still exists, absolute price increase is limited
We It is believed that entering August, the crude oil market will be intertwined with long and short positions, making it difficult to rise or fall significantly. However, taking into account the economic stimulus policies, crude oil prices are expected to oscillate slightly upward in August. At present, there are still 2.6 million tons of PX production capacity in China that is parked, and some devices in South Korea and India have not been restarted. At present, the operating rate of downstream PTA is still high, forming obvious support for PX consumption, and the PX processing gap is at a low level. The slight rise in upstream crude oil prices has obvious support for PX costs. Considering the market’s concerns about the high inventory pressure of PTA, and the inventory pressure of PX itself still exists, the market’s bullish sentiment is insufficient. It is expected that the PX processing gap will remain at a low level in the future, and there is a slight upward expectation for PX, but the extent will be limited.
PTA accumulation reached a new high, and the processing differential pressure increased
From the perspective of the PTA supply side, the operating rate of PTA is relatively high, and social inventory has increased from 3.54 million tons at the beginning of July to 3.8 million tons at the end of July, maintaining a state of accumulated inventory.
The current PTA processing gap is still at the level of 600 yuan/ton, which is a relatively high level acceptable to PTA factories. Many PTA factories still maintain high startup loads. However, the current social inventory of PTA is close to the level of 4 million tons. Entering August, the inventory accumulation dilemma is difficult to solve, and it is expected that the high processing gap may be difficult to continue. We believe that the PTA processing gap will continue to narrow in August.
Polyester inventory pressure accumulates and cash flow pressure increases
Currently, under the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, the consumption of non-woven fabrics, which are also polyester products, has increased significantly due to the need for epidemic prevention, and the consumption of bottle tablets has also increased significantly. However, the sharp drop in household income and the implementation of home quarantine have had an obvious impact on textiles and clothing. At present, due to the sharp decline in spring clothing sales, clothing brands have significantly reduced autumn orders to achieve the consumption of spring inventory. Although the European and American economies have restarted and the internal circulation of the domestic economy has strengthened, the consumption of textile and clothing products has continued to rebound month-on-month, but the year-on-year data is still poor. It will take time for terminal consumption to improve. Therefore, under the suppression of weak actual demand and speculative inventory in the first half of the year, the overall inventory pressure of terminals is relatively high.
Among polyester products, filament yarn has been most obviously affected by the epidemic. At the same time, filament yarn is the variety with the largest investment volume, with a cumulative new production capacity of 3.18 million tons after 2019. Although polyester production continued to recover after the epidemic, filament production still declined year-on-year. There will still be 1.65 million tons of filament production capacity put into operation in the second half of the year. Although the production of multiple polyester units has been delayed due to the impact of the epidemic, it will not be absent after all. With the commissioning of the Baihong device and the commissioning of Hengli and other devices, the supply pressure on the polyester end will increase sharply in the future, and small and medium-sized enterprises are at risk of clearing production capacity. In the short term, most polyester shutdown companies have not yet determined a restart time. Considering the current profit level, restart expectations are not strong. Polyester production is expected to remain at 87%-88%.
We believe that the current PTA production capacity launch is less affected by the epidemic and is basically launched as planned. The total production capacity has reached 52.23 million tons, while the downstream polyester production capacity launch has been delayed. Moreover, the terminal order situation is not optimistic, supply and demand are both weak, and PTA inventory accumulation will still be the main tone in the second half of the year. At the same time, because the PTA processing gap remains at a high level, it is expected that PTA will face greater downward pressure in the future, and short positions are the most appropriate. </p
