The “second half” of China’s foreign trade in 2020 is off to a good start. Yesterday (7th), the General Administration of Customs released China’s import and export data for goods trade in July. The performance was once again better than market expectations: my country’s foreign trade import and export increased by 6.5% in July, the growth rate was higher than the previous month; imports and exports increased again , among which, exports increased by 10.4% year-on-year, achieving double-digit growth.
Faced with the global economic downturn caused by the epidemic, foreign trade import and export was once considered to be the main “drag” on China’s economy. The actual situation is that since the second quarter, foreign trade conditions have continued to be better than market expectations, reflecting the strong resilience of the Chinese economy. Analysts said that the period of greatest pressure on imports and exports has passed, and the overall positive trend in foreign trade is expected to continue in the future.
In July, imports and exports again increased and exports achieved double-digit growth
In July, my country’s foreign trade imports and exports were 2.93 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.5%, 1.4 percentage points higher than the 5.1% growth rate in June .
Among them, exports in July were 1.69 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.4%. Exports posted positive growth for the fourth consecutive month and the highest monthly growth rate this year.
In addition, imports in July were 1.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6%. This is another double increase after imports and exports achieved “double positive growth” for the first time this year in June.
Regarding the better-than-expected improvement in import and export in July, Tang Jianwei, chief researcher of the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, said that on the one hand, the domestic resumption of work and production continues to advance, efforts to stabilize foreign trade have increased, and domestic production continues to accelerate, which has promoted import and export. increase. On the other hand, the epidemic situation in major economies is gradually improving, and global demand has recovered. In the first seven months, China’s total trade value with ASEAN, the EU and Japan all achieved growth.
Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce Research Institute, said that China took the lead in controlling the epidemic, continued to promote the resumption of work and production, and stabilized the fundamentals of the economy. At the same time, China is the only country in the world that owns all industrial categories in the United Nations industrial classification. It has strong production capacity and can provide strong support to other countries in fighting the epidemic. In the first seven months, the growth rate of textile exports, including masks, reached 35.8%.
In terms of imports, Tang Jianwei said that domestic production has gradually recovered and improved domestic demand has driven import growth. In the first seven months, the growth rates of imports of iron ore, crude oil, steel, etc. all reached double digits.
Analytical agency: The period of maximum pressure on imports and exports has passed. The upward trend in foreign trade is expected to continue
The excellent performance of imports and exports in July has made a good start for the “second half” of China’s foreign trade. Looking to the future, can this positive trend continue?
Bai Ming said that there is a basis for China’s foreign trade to continue to maintain a positive trend. “As long as the epidemic can be controlled, we will basically succeed in stabilizing foreign trade,” Bai Ming said.
Tang Jianwei said that the second quarter may be the low point of the global economy. After that, external demand is expected to gradually recover, easing the pressure on China’s exports. As long as the resumption of overseas work and production is accelerated, China’s exports should be able to stabilize in a positive growth range. In terms of imports, China’s economic performance in the second half of the year will be better than that in the first half of the year, and domestic demand is clearly picking up, which will drive import growth.
Zhu Jianfang, chief economist of CITIC Securities, said that the period of greatest import and export pressure has passed. Looking to the future, it is expected that the current trend of exports will continue, imports will also show a positive trend due to price recovery and strong domestic production demand, and the overall positive trend of foreign trade will continue.
In the second half of the year, my country will continue to make efforts to stabilize foreign trade. The State Council executive meeting on July 29 made arrangements to further expand opening up, stabilize foreign trade and stabilize foreign investment. The meeting proposed a number of measures, including supporting foreign trade companies to enhance their ability to resist risks, expanding the pilot program for innovative development of trade in services to parts of 21 provinces across the country, and so on.
Li Kuiwen, spokesman for the General Administration of Customs and director of the Statistics and Analysis Department, said at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office in July that the import and export situation in the second half of the year will remain complex and severe. However, my country’s foreign trade development has sufficient resilience and room for maneuver. As the effects of a series of policy measures to stabilize foreign trade continue to be released, we are confident that we can stabilize the fundamentals of foreign trade and strive to stabilize and improve the quality of imports and exports.
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