Overview:
U.S. crude oil The 09 contract broke through a new high to $43.52 during the week, with a weekly increase of 2.89% and closing at $41.60. The Brent oil 10 contract also broke a new high during the week, reaching a maximum of $46.23, with a weekly increase of 2.24%, closing at $44.69. The external crude oil may have multiple slight corrections, but it will not change the overall upward trend of shock. The weekly decline of the main domestic SC crude oil contract in 2009 decreased from last week, with a decrease of 1.5%. The internal market is obviously weaker than the external market.
Overseas epidemics are still recurring. As of the reporting period, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States reached 5.15 million, with more than 160,000 deaths, and more than 50,000 new diagnoses in a single day. At the same time, the epidemic situation in Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa is not optimistic. Among them, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Brazil has reached 301,300.
The weaving operating rate has rebounded for three consecutive weeks. The load of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has rebounded slightly to 70%, and the texturing operating rate has rebounded slightly to 79%. The polyester plant continued to be put into operation, and the load remained stable at a high level. As of Friday, the load was 90.10%, and polyester staple fiber stocks fell sharply.
PTA:
The average spot price of PTA continues to rise, reaching the top It was 3,615 yuan/ton on Friday. Polyester continues to be put into production, and the load remains stable at a high level, and the polyester load may be difficult to fall under the expected peak season. PTA maintenance plans have been gradually introduced, and supply and demand improved month-on-month in August. The main processing gap of TA disk continued to widen last week, reaching 825 last Friday. TA spot processing difference widened significantly to 764. The PX-NPT spread remains stable at a low of $152.
Ethylene glycol:
As of August 3, East China The MEG port inventory in the main port area is approximately 1.473 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous period. According to shipping reports, from August 3 to August 9, the total arrival volume of the four major ports is expected to be 273,000 tons, which is a bullish level. Overseas maintenance is planned to be carried out from August to November. The recent shipments from the mainstream reservoir areas of Zhangjiagang and Taicang have been divided and unstable. The actual arrival volume is generally significantly lower than the forecast arrival volume, and port delays are still serious.
Cost and Profit
1 Raw Material Market
1.1 crude oil, NPT, PX
Based on cfr Japan naphtha, naphtha (cfr Japan) rose sharply last Monday After falling to US$374/ton, it continued to rise during the week and rose to US$392/ton last Friday. The 09 U.S. crude oil contract broke through a new high to $43.52 during the week, with a weekly increase of 2.89% and closed at $41.60. The Brent oil 10 contract also broke a new high during the week, reaching a maximum of $46.23, with a weekly increase of 2.24%, closing at $44.69. The external crude oil may have multiple slight corrections, but it will not change the overall upward trend of shock. The price difference between naphtha and Brent crude oil narrowed sharply to below US$50 last Monday, and widened again during the week, reaching US$65.66 as of last Friday. The price difference between naphtha and WTI crude oil followed a similar trend, reaching around US$89 as of last Friday. The price of PX (cfr China) fell sharply to US$533 last Monday, which shocked Huizhou merchants during the week, and reached US$544/ton last Friday. The PX-NPT spread is still fluctuating at a low level, reaching $152 as of last Friday. PX Asia’s operating rate and PX China’s operating rate decreased slightly from last week.
2 Cost and profit changes
The center of gravity of the average spot price of oil-based ethylene glycol continued to move up last week, and in the second half of the week It dropped slightly to 3,720 yuan last Friday. The average price during the week was about 3,710 yuan. The price center moved slightly higher by 57 yuan than last week. The equivalent coal contract price is about 3,510-3,560 yuan. The chart is based on the nearby spot price. ——3400 yuan/ton. Coal-to-coal load has dropped sharply, and coal-to-ethylene glycol losses have been significantly restored last week, with the highest regional losses around -1,100 yuan. The cash flow loss from external production of ethylene to ethylene glycol has been significantly reduced to around -$67. The cash flow loss from naphtha to ethylene glycol remained around -$20/ton. The cash flow loss of the methanol MTO production route recovered slightly to about -755 yuan/ton. All ethylene glycol process lines suffered comprehensive losses, but the losses continued to ease month-on-month, especially the coal-based profit recovery was obvious.
Supply
1 Equipment maintenance status
Starting from August 1, 2020, the polyester production capacity base has been revised upward to 61.6 million tons, with the addition of Baihong 25 10,000-ton (Quanzhou, Fujian, supporting the production of industrial wire-grade chips), Hengyi New Materials (Haining, Zhejiang, supporting the production of civilian filament) 250,000-ton equipment. There were many changes in polyester equipment last week. As of last Friday, the domestic polyester load was calculated at 90.1%.
Table 1: Recent changes in major polyester devices
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
PTA domestic equipment: Sinopec Luoyang 325,000 tons unit will start shutting down on July 27, and is expected to be maintained for 40 days; Yangzi Petrochemical 600,000 tons The device will be gradually shut down starting from 8.6 and is expected to be inspected for 2 weeks; Zhejiang Huabin Petrochemical’s 1.4 million ton device is scheduled to undergo maintenance for 2 weeks in mid-August; Taihua Industrial’s 1.2 million ton device will be inspected for 2 weeks starting from 8.2; a 1.2 million ton device in Sanfangxiang 8.2 AppendixAfter parking, the estimated technical transformation time is over 30 days. Jiaxing Petrochemical’s 2.2 million-ton unit was shut down in the evening on July 12 and restarted on August 4. Products have now been produced.
Table 2: PTA’s recent major device changes:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
Ethylene glycol unit: The load and comprehensive operating rate of the coal-to-ethylene glycol unit continued to decline, with a larger drop last week . As of August 6, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol was 53.51%. Among them, the operating load of coal-to-ethylene glycol is 27.81%.
Table 3: MEG’s recent major device changes:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
Commissioning status of new units: 200,000 tons of Xinjiang Tianye’s 600,000 tons/year coal-to-ethylene glycol unit The material is expected to be discharged this week; Sinochem Quanzhou’s new 500,000 tons/year MEG unit has already been fed ethylene and is expected to be discharged in early September. Shanxi Woneng Chemical Technology Co., Ltd.’s new 300,000-ton/year syngas-to-MEG device is scheduled to be put into operation in the near future, and the product is expected to be produced by the end of August.
2PTA Inventory
PTA factory inventories have remained stable at 5.5 days for nine consecutive weeks. The inventory of PTA raw materials in polyester plants has remained stable at 10 days for five consecutive weeks. The total social inventory calculated by PTA has declined for four consecutive weeks. The inventory pressure of polyester and PTA continues to ease. The absolute inventory of PTA is still at the highest level in the same period in the past four years.
3 Ethylene glycol import And port inventory
The latest inventory of ethylene glycol port inventory on August 3 shows that destocking continued from the previous period, and the amplitude decreased significantly from the previous period. As of August 3, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China was approximately 1.473 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous period. According to shipping reports, from August 3 to August 9, the total arrival volume of the four major ports is expected to be 273,000 tons, which is a bullish level. Shipments from the mainstream reservoir areas of Zhangjiagang and Taicang have recently been differentiated and unstable. The average daily combined shipment volume of the two ports is as low as 8,100 tons/day and as high as around 13,000 tons/day. The mainstream reservoir area of Zhangjiagang has poor delivery, while Taicang Port prefers delivery. The actual arrival volume is generally significantly lower than the forecast arrival volume, and port delays are still serious.
Requirements
1 Polyester
1.1 Polyester operating rate and equipment changes
Last Week Filament Zhuocheng Maintenance is planned, short fiber Luohua and Anxing are overhauled, Sanfangxiang bottle flake production is reduced, but Wuliangye and Huahong are restarted, and new production capacity is included (the start-up of new production capacity is still relatively low). Starting from August, polyester production capacity will be adjusted to 61.6 million tons/year. As of last Friday, the polyester load was adjusted to 90.1%. It remains the second-highest level just below 2018 levels. Among them, the operating rate of polyester filament dropped slightly by 0.7% to 74.2%; the load of polyester bottle flakes decreased slightly by 0.2% to 78.8%; and the operating rate of direct-spun polyester staple dropped significantly by 2.4% to 92.30%. The operating rate of direct-spun polyester short yarn remains at the highest level in the same period in history; the operating rate of polyester filament dropped to the lowest level in the same period in history; the operating rate of polyester bottle flakes remained at the second-lowest level only higher than that in 2019.
1.2 Polyester Stock
As of last Friday, the equity inventories of POY, FDY and DTY in Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester factories were 15.3, 17.3 and 27.5 days respectively. FDY stocks increased by 0.5 days from last Friday, while POY and DTY fell by 0.7 days and 1.1 days respectively from last Friday. Polyester staple fiber inventory was destocked again last week to 2.8 days, a sharp decrease of 3.8 days from the previous period. Inventories of polyester bottle flakes remain near the 20-day level. The inventory of polyester staple fiber dropped to the lowest level for the same period in the past; the inventory of polyester filament and polyester bottle flakes both maintained the highest level for the same period in the past.
2 Terminal situation
Last week, the overall loom and texturing starts in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased for three consecutive weeks. As of now, the operating rates of looms and texturing are at 70% and 79% respectively.
Sample weaving in Shengze area The number of days of enterprise’s gray cloth inventory has continued to rise since 5.25. It is currently 45 days and has reached a maximum of 45.5 days. The inventory of gray cloth has been repeated many times, and the turning point needs to be confirmed. This year’s off-season started earlier than in previous years due to the impact of the epidemic, and inventories began to accumulate continuously at the end of May (in previous years, gray fabric inventories did not begin to accumulate until at least late June to early July). The peak season in the second half of the year is approaching, and the inflection point in gray fabric inventory is expected to continue during the peak season. The transaction volume of China Textile City began to be better than the same period in previous years in late July. There was a slight decline in August, and attention will be paid to whether the trading volume can achieve peak season expectations in late August.
Continue. The transaction volume of China Textile City began to be better than the same period in previous years in late July. There was a slight decline in August, and attention will be paid to whether the trading volume can achieve peak season expectations in late August.
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