Introduction: Affected by the public health incident in 2020, many foreign traders, after experiencing the darkest moments of “order shortage” in May and June, finally felt a glimmer of warmth in the traditional foreign trade off-season of July and August. , from the perspective of the textile market, it is indeed gratifying that the foreign trade textile market is recovering. How much impact the improvement of overseas orders will have on PTA, and whether it can support the long-dormant market, may be the focus of close attention by industry insiders.
First of all, in terms of orders, according to customs statistics, in July 2020, my country exported textile yarns, fabrics and Products were US$15.9769 billion; from January to July 2020, my country’s exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products were US$90.0804 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.3%; from January to July 2019, my country’s exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products were US$68.6309 billion.
“Since July, customers have come to inquire about foreign trade one after another. In July, we sold two containers, and now we have about three more containers. “Although it is the off-season now, the foreign trade situation has indeed begun to improve, which is indeed something to be thankful for this year.” said a textile foreign trade boss in Yishengze area.
“We have recently been receiving orders for washed velvet and velvet-like high silk fabrics from the Middle East. The latest order is about hundreds of thousands of meters. Some time ago, we also received some orders for auxiliary products. Orders for hemp fabrics are now slowly improving, and this August is much better than usual, which is very gratifying,” said a textile boss in Yishengze area.
The above-mentioned orders from the Middle East for washed velvet and velvet-feel Kosibao fabrics are not made of Class B raw materials like the previous Zuoji linen fabrics. The sales volume is better due to the low price. This order and The price has not dropped compared to usual, and there is also the possibility of a second purchase.
Although the foreign trade market is improving, we still need to beware of external risks. Nowadays, most of these orders are concentrated in Europe, the Middle East and other places. Relatively speaking, orders from the United States are still relatively small. The main reason is that Sino-US relations are already in danger, and now there are new conflicts, which will inevitably affect Sino-US trade, and the United States It has always been a major exporter of Chinese textiles, and its impact on China’s textile industry cannot be underestimated. Without a complete resolution of the Sino-US issue, it will be difficult for foreign trade to fully recover.
Secondly, in terms of PTA’s own supply and demand, PX continues to have low processing fees, which has no guiding effect on PTA prices, and also leads to PTA The processing fee is on the high side; under the current industry conditions, the processing fee of around 700 yuan/ton drives PTA manufacturers to continuously postpone their maintenance plans. Longzhong data shows that as of August 14, the domestic PTA social inventory was 3.5839 million tons. Although it is basically in a balanced state in the short term, driven by profits, the pressure of high inventory is still difficult to completely alleviate.
In addition, with the subsequent commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinfengming Phase II, Fujian Baihong, Honggang Petrochemical Phase II, and Yisheng New Materials, the oversupply pattern has increased again.
Comprehensive views and suggestions, the placement of orders from Europe and the Middle East alone does not fully indicate that the foreign trade market has begun to fully recover. This warmth is superimposed on Vietnam in the absence of large orders from the United States. On the one hand, there are various problems with European tariffs. The improving foreign trade market is still full of crises, and support for PTA is still weak. In addition, the contradiction between supply and demand of PTA itself is still difficult to completely solve. Market players have a poor mentality, and it is difficult to completely open the way for the rise of the PTA futures market. .
It is recommended to maintain the idea of low shocks. The view that the 09 contract 3700 yuan / ton line is the pressure remains unchanged. Follow the rhythm, roll the operation, sell short on highs, and do not chase the rebound. In terms of arbitrage, TA9-1 is still suitable for counter-arbitrage logic. A position is established near -150 yuan/ton, with a target of -180 to 190 yuan/ton. This point can be used to establish a positive position. </p
