After entering August, the supply and demand relationship of PTA has improved. The main contract has successfully changed months and is facing great pressure on warehouse receipts. However, the price fluctuations are still relatively stable, reflecting that the current contradiction between supply and demand has not actually intensified completely. In the past two weeks, there has been a significant decline in social inventory but an increase in circulating inventory. This is mainly due to the cancellation of some warehouse receipts and the conversion of inventory into current inventory in the delivery warehouse.
PTA maintenance has been implemented
Since late May, the contradiction between oversupply and demand in the PTA industry has become very obvious, and the story of “overhaul and load reduction” in the market has begun. Never stopped. Maintenance plans of some major major manufacturers have been continuously postponed since June. PTA factories maintained a high operating level throughout July, until supply finally gradually declined in August.
Based on the calculation of the supply and demand balance sheet based on the current relatively low operating rate of PTA, the demand for PTA has exceeded the supply, which means that in the current supply and demand relationship in August, the PTA industry is expected to destock slightly. . Although the current maintenance time of most factories does not exceed two weeks and the impact on output is not large, the total is still considerable, so it can alleviate the supply pressure of PTA to a certain extent.
However, from a long-term perspective, PTA supply continues to grow, and a large number of warehouse receipts in delivery warehouses may become the norm in the future.
Downstream demand support
The comprehensive operating rate of polyester is relatively high, and has even exceeded the operating rate of PTA recently. The new polyester equipment put into production in the early stage is operating normally, and the demand performance is relatively stable. From the end of July to the beginning of August, the transaction price of polyester filament fluctuated upward, and cash flow continued to improve. Moreover, except for DTY, the current inventory of polyester filament companies is at a high level, and the inventory of other mainstream models has not yet reached its peak in April, and can still withstand a certain amount of slow-down inventory pressure.
Terminal weaving is also a good thing, which will help to boost the mentality of the entire industry chain. In autumn and winter, domestic trade orders for shoes, clothing and underwear fabrics have improved, and foreign trade orders for European and American home textiles have picked up, which together have promoted a recovery in the industry’s operating rate. The weaving operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has rebounded and is close to 70%. The start of printing and dyeing operations in August increased significantly compared with July, and there is a prosperous scene with the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” coming ahead of schedule.
But the month-on-month improvement does not mean a change in trend. From the perspective of long-term load, terminal weaving operations have been at a low level this year. Even if terminal demand can continue to increase in the future, the demand vacancy for polyester in the first three quarters will also be reflected in inventory pressure. Moreover, in fact, the current overall number of terminal textile and clothing orders is still insufficient, mainly consuming early inventory, and the market is still in a state of oversupply. Industry players are still optimistic that the clothing market may show obvious signs of recovery from September to October.
In addition, the unit price of clothing imported by the United States from China in 2020 will be approximately 16% lower than in 2019, which is much higher than the average decrease of 3% in all clothing import prices. Changes in the relationship are still worthy of continued attention. </p
