Viscose staple fiber experienced four consecutive declines in 2020. Even if there was a rebound during the period, it quickly disappeared. Finally, after the price of viscose staple fiber hit a new historical low again, the market was finally able to exchange for periodic transactions to drive industry prices. With a moderate increase, the market has different opinions on whether viscose staple fiber will end the two-year decline and turn into a rebound, or will it remain low and fluctuate. However, as far as the current situation is concerned, various data indicators are already showing that viscose staple fiber Fundamentals are improving slightly.
Viscose staple fiber has begun to rebound since hitting a record low, but the rebound has been cautious and cautious. The market mentality has been rubbing back and forth between bearish and bullish, and has finally worn out. There has been a small rebound trend, but the industry still dare not take the market situation in September lightly. The market is still unable to form a conclusion as to whether the viscose staple fiber industry chain is really slowly improving or is just a flash. .
Indicating a positive atmosphere – the prices of viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn both moved up
Since the shipment of viscose staple fiber at a discounted price on July 23, which has lasted close to January, the average price has slowly moved up by 190 yuan/ton. The price of rayon yarn has also gradually bottomed out from the low point and has increased so far. , the prices of most types of rayon yarns such as ring, siro and compact yarns have gradually increased by 100-200 yuan/ton, among which the cumulative increase in vortex spinning has been as high as 400-700 yuan/ton. See Table 1 for details.
Figure 1 Daily average price trend of viscose staple fiber
Table 1 July 20, 2020 -Comparison of peak and valley values of rayon yarn on August 16 (unit: yuan/ton)
Attention issue 1: Export return order issue
Vortex spinning prices are increasing rapidly, but they are basically relying on the support of early foreign orders, and the foreign orders held by the factory are basically maintained. Production and sales will be balanced at the end of August or even early September. If the orders held are digested and subsequent external orders cannot be replenished, the later price expectations of vortex spinning will still be bearish. However, the external situation cannot be foreseen and grasped by the market, so the mentality of the industry is relatively Be cautious; in addition, except for vortex spinning, the price increases of ring, siro, compact siro and air-end rayon yarns are average.
Attention 2: The increase in rayon yarn processing fee is limited
If calculated according to the average stocking price of viscose staple fiber of 8,300 yuan/ton accepted by rayon yarn companies in the previous period, although the processing fees for most processes of rayon yarn have been increased, ring spinning, siro, compact siro and air-end spinning are generally profitable. But it is still too early (see Table 2), let alone calculating the processing fee of rayon yarn according to the current latest price of viscose staple fiber. The labor cost of most rayon yarn is still at a low level. It can be seen that the problems from the terminal have not been effectively solved. solve.
Table 2 Changes in processing fees for rayon yarn disks (unit: yuan/ton)
Indicative of a positive atmosphere – finished stocks of viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn both fell
Viscose staple fiber After the physical inventory of fiber factories hit a high in April, the industry’s operating rate began to decline sharply. As shown in Figure 2, from April to June 2020, the output of the viscose staple fiber industry dropped significantly. Even if the output increased again in July, due to corporate choices Prices were exchanged for volume, and the finished product inventory at the end of July did not continue to grow even though the factory maintained orders and shipments. According to the current operating load of viscose staple fiber, it is estimated that the total output of viscose staple fiber in August will be around 297,000 tons, which is higher than that in July. There was a slight decrease of about 7,000 tons compared with the previous month. Secondly, most viscose staple fiber factories still hold orders for more than January. Therefore, it is estimated that the ending inventory of viscose staple fiber in August is easy to sell but difficult to raise.
Attention: The low price of viscose staple fiber has affected the production pressure of most viscose staple fiber, thus making the overall operating load of the industry low. However, if the market accepts viscose staple fiber later, The acceptance price of more than 9,000 yuan/ton means that most viscose staple fiber factories are relieved of their burden concerns, so viscose staple fiber has flexibility in starting up.
Figure 2 Monthly output and monthly ending inventory changes of viscose staple fiber in 2020
The inventory of finished products of rayon yarn reached a high level in early July. With the price of viscose staple fiber bottoming out, the volume of rayon yarn rising and falling, and the follow-up of some foreign orders, the market transactions improved in stages, and the inventory of finished products in the rayon yarn industry Turned downward.
Attention: But as mentioned in the previous paragraph, if orders continue to follow up, finished rayon yarn inventory will continue to fall. However, if foreign orders come to an abrupt end or the domestic demand market cannot catch up, Under the situation of rising prices, the inventory of finished products of rayon yarn may once again turn from a decline to an increase. Secondly, although the inventory of finished products in the rayon yarn industry has declined, it has not formed a situation of uniform shortage of goods. The overall inventory days of finished products in the industry are still in a relatively high state. .
Figure 3 2020Annual inventory changes of rayon yarn finished products
To sum up, the atmosphere of viscose staple fiber and downstream chains has indeed improved, but there are still many uncertainties in the improved situation. Sexual factors make it difficult for industry players to form clear bullish confidence in the market outlook. Viscose staple fiber will still need a period of shock on the road to reversal. </p
