Overview:
U.S. crude oil The 10 contract made a slight correction last week, with a weekly decline of 0.61%, closing at $42.25. The Brent 10 contract fell slightly last week, and the decline was greater than that of U.S. oil. The weekly decline was 1.54%, closing at $44.26. Crude oil may have several slight corrections in the external market, but it will not change the overall upward trend of shock. The main domestic SC crude oil 10 contract fell slightly during the week, with a weekly decline of 1.92%. It rose 0.84% in the night session, but the internal session was still weak.
Overseas epidemics are still recurring. As of the reporting period, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States reached 5.84 million, with more than 180,000 deaths. The number of new cases in a single day has declined during the week, but is still More than 50,000 people. At the same time, the epidemic situation in Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa is not optimistic. Among them, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Brazil has reached 358,300. The single-day increase fluctuates greatly, with more than 50,000 people added on August 22nd.
Due to power cuts in some areas, high temperatures, and a fall in new orders in some areas, the weaving operating rate ended its four-week rebound and fell last week. The load of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang dropped slightly to 72%, and the texturing operating rate dropped significantly to 75%. The polyester plant continues to be put into operation, and the load remains stable at a high level. As of last Friday, the load remained stable at 90.90%, and product inventory continues to accumulate.
PTA:
The average price of PTA spot prices continued to fall during the week , falling to 3525 yuan/ton by Friday. Polyester continues to be put into production, and the load remains high and stable. PTA load rebounded sharply last week to around 87%. The main processing gap on the TA disk first narrowed and then widened during the week, reaching 865 last Friday. TA’s spot processing margin narrowed sharply to 638 yuan last Monday and continued to widen to 666 during the week. The PX-NPT spread is still fluctuating at a low level, reaching $145 as of last Friday.
Ethylene glycol:
As of August 17, East China The MEG port inventory in the main port area is approximately 1.453 million tons, a significant decrease of 34,000 tons from the previous period. According to shipping reports, from August 17 to August 23, the total arrival volume of the four major ports is expected to be 284,000 tons, which is a bullish level. Overseas maintenance is planned to be carried out from August to November. Shipments from Zhangjiagang’s mainstream reservoir area have improved significantly recently, and we are paying attention to the sustainability of shipping preferences. The actual arrival volume is generally significantly lower than the forecast arrival volume, and port delays are still serious.
Cost and Profit
1 Raw Materials Market
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1.1 Crude oil, NPT, PX
Based on cfr Japan naphtha, naphtha (cfr Japan) fluctuated and rebounded last week , rising to $403.5/ton by Friday. The U.S. crude oil 10 contract made a slight correction last week, with a weekly decline of 0.61%, closing at $42.25. The Brent 10 contract fell slightly last week, and the decline was greater than that of U.S. oil. The weekly decline was 1.54%, closing at $44.26. Crude oil may have several slight corrections in the external market, but it will not change the overall upward trend of shock. The price difference between naphtha and Brent crude oil fluctuated and widened last week, and was around US$78 as of last Friday; the price difference between naphtha and WTI crude oil followed a similar trend, and was around US$92 as of last Friday. The price of PX (cfr China) basically showed a downward trend last week, reaching US$548/ton as of last Friday. The PX-NPT spread is still fluctuating at a low level, reaching $145 as of last Friday. The operating rate of PX Asia rebounded slightly from the previous week, while the operating rate of PX China decreased slightly from the previous week.
2 Cost and profit changes
The average spot price of oil-based ethylene glycol rose sharply last week, reaching 3,710 yuan last Friday. The average price during the week was about 3,738 yuan, a significant increase of 38 yuan from the price center last week, which is equivalent to coal The contract price is approximately 3538-3588 yuan, and the chart is based on the nearby spot price – 3450 yuan/ton. Coal-based load has rebounded sharply since last week, and the loss of coal-based ethylene glycol has been restored for five consecutive weeks. The highest regional loss is around -1,000 yuan, and the lowest is around -500 yuan. The cash flow loss of externally produced ethylene glycol continued to recover to around -$9. The cash flow loss of naphtha to ethylene glycol has once again recovered to around -$16/ton. The cash flow loss of the methanol MTO production route sharply recovered to within -800 at the beginning of this week, and intensified again to around -873 yuan/ton by last Friday. All ethylene glycol process lines are still at a comprehensive loss, and the losses are basically being repaired. The continued repair of coal-based profits will trigger the restart of the device.
Supply
1 Equipment maintenance status
Starting from August 1, 2020, the polyester production capacity base has been revised upward to 61.6 million tons. Baihong 250,000 tons (Quanzhou, Fujian, supporting the production of industrial yarn grade chips), Hengyi New Materials (Haining, Zhejiang, supporting the production of civilian filament) 250,000 tons equipment. Last week, Hengli’s new equipment was opened, which is temporarily equipped with 600 tons/day of optical slices; about 200,000 spinning lines in Tongkun that were undergoing equipment renovation after the Spring Festival were restarted; in addition, in terms of short fiber, the 200,000 new units in Yihua’s early stage were not matched 100,000 tons started supporting hollow products; Luohua restarted 100,000 tons of short fiber. As of last Friday, the polyester load increased to 90.9%.
Table 1: Recent major device changes in polyester:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
PTA�Internal devices: Honggang Petrochemical’s 1.5 million ton device restarted, Fuhua’s 4.5 million ton device returned to 90%, Hengli Line 5 was raised to full capacity, and mainland China’s PTA load rose to around 87% on Thursday. Yangzi Petrochemical’s 600,000-ton unit is still being restarted and has not produced products yet. Taiwan Chemical Industry’s 1.2 million-ton unit had trouble restarting at the beginning of the week and planned to restart again on 8.20 evening.
Table 2: PTA’s recent major device changes:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
Ethylene glycol unit: The overall load of ethylene glycol and the start-up of coal-based equipment have both rebounded significantly this week. As of August 20, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol was 57.23%, of which the operating load of coal-based ethylene glycol was 33.74%.
Table 3: MEG’s recent major device changes:
Data source : CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
New device commissioning status: Xinjiang Tianye’s 600,000 tons/year coal-to-ethylene glycol device, 200,000 tons of which is expected to be postponed to August this week Materials will be discharged at the end of the month; Sinochem Quanzhou’s new 500,000 tons/year MEG unit has already received ethylene and is expected to discharge materials in early September. Shanxi Woneng Chemical Technology Co., Ltd.’s new 300,000-ton/year syngas-to-MEG unit is scheduled to be inducted last week and is expected to produce some by-products in the second half of the year.
2PTA inventory
PTA factory inventory It rose from 1 day to 6 days last week. The inventory of PTA raw materials in polyester plants has remained stable at 10 days for eight consecutive weeks. PTA-converted total social inventory has rebounded for two consecutive weeks – PTA factory inventory has rebounded sharply this week, warehouse receipts have continued to decline, polyester factory raw material inventory has increased slightly from the previous week, and polyester finished product inventory-converted TA inventory has increased significantly – It’s actually an accumulation of polyester stocks. The release of warehouse receipts may increase circulating inventory, and inventory pressure has picked up significantly this week.
3 Ethylene glycol import and port inventory
The latest inventory of ethylene glycol port stocks on August 17 showed a significant decrease compared with the previous period. As of August 17, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China was approximately 1.453 million tons, a decrease of 34,000 tons from the previous period. According to shipping reports, from August 17 to August 23, the total arrival volume of the four major ports is expected to be 284,000 tons, which is a bullish level. Shipments from Zhangjiagang’s mainstream reservoir area have picked up significantly recently, and the pressure on port inventory has eased. The actual arrival volume is generally significantly lower than the forecast arrival volume, and port delays are still serious. Pay attention to whether the improvement in shipments can continue.
Requirements
1 Polyester
1.1 Polyester operating rate and equipment changes
Starting from August, Polyester production capacity is adjusted to 61.6 million tons/year. As of last Friday, the polyester load increased to 90.9%. It remains the second-highest level just below 2018 levels. Among them, the polyester filament opening rate rebounded slightly by 0.8% to 75.10%; the polyester bottle flake load increased slightly by 0.5% to 80.20%; and the direct spinning polyester short yarn operating rate increased significantly by 2.8% to 95.10%. The operating rate of direct-spun polyester short yarn is still at the highest level in the same period in history; the operating rate of polyester filament is still not at the lowest level in the same period since 2017; the operating rate of polyester bottle flakes has rebounded to near the equilibrium level.
1.2 Polyester Inventory
As of Last Friday, the equity inventories of POY, FDY and DTY in Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester factories were 18.9, 20.3 and 29.8 days respectively. Filament stocks have all rebounded. Among them, POY stocks have increased by 1.3 days from last Friday; FDY stocks have increased by 1.5 days from last Friday, and DTY stocks have increased by 0.4 days from half a month ago. Polyester staple fiber stocks basically remained stable at 4.4 days last week compared with the previous week. The inventory of polyester bottle flakes has basically remained at a level above 20 days. The inventory of polyester staple fiber is the second lowest level only higher than the same period in 2019; the inventory of polyester filament and polyester bottle flakes both maintain the highest level in the same period over the past years.
2 Terminal situation
Last week The loom and texturing starts in Jiangsu and Zhejiang ended the four consecutive weeks of rebound. Last week, the load fell due to high temperatures, local power cuts, etc. As of last Thursday, the operating rates of looms and texturing were 72% and 75% respectively.
The inventory days of gray fabrics in sample weaving enterprises in Shengze area have continued to rise since 5.25 days, and are currently at the highest level of 45.5 days. The inflection point of gray fabric inventory has not yet arrived. This year’s off-season started earlier than in previous years due to the impact of the epidemic, and inventories began to accumulate continuously at the end of May (in previous years, gray fabric inventories did not begin to accumulate until at least late June to early July). The transaction volume of China Textile City began to be better than the same period in previous years in late July. There was a slight decline in August. The current trading volume has not started to increase as in the same period in previous years, and there is no sign of a peak season yet. We estimate that the peak season in the second half of the year may be delayed, and the intensity of the peak season will be weaker than in previous years, but better than in the first half of the year.
�The volume has not started to increase like the same period in previous years, and there is no sign of a peak season yet. We estimate that the peak season in the second half of the year may be delayed, and the intensity of the peak season will be weaker than in previous years, but better than in the first half of the year.
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