According to feedback from cotton trading companies in Qingdao, Zhangjiagang and other places, affected by the continuous decrease in Brazilian cotton basis spread (including bonded and cargo), the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the relatively active inquiries and shipments of foreign cotton at the port for more than a week, Not only has the customs clearance volume of bonded Brazilian cotton and Indian cotton improved significantly compared with June/July, but the cotton inventory at the port has remained stable (bonded + non-bonded), and the pressure on storage capacity has not increased further.
Judging from the Brazilian quotations from international cotton traders and importing enterprises, the current basis differences of M 1-5/32 and M36/37 are 6.8-7.5 cents/pound and 8.20-8.50 cents/pound respectively. , but the basis difference of low-quality Brazilian cotton such as M 1-3/32 is 4.20-4.50 cents/pound, and the basis difference of M 1-1/16 is even lower. For small and medium-sized cotton spinning enterprises spinning cotton yarn with count 32S and below, customs clearance Low-quality, low-price foreign cotton is attractive.
An international cotton company in Qingdao said that there are two main reasons for the recent acceleration in customs clearance sales of low-basis, low-quality Brazilian cotton and Indian cotton: First, the basis of Brazilian cotton continues to fall, and traders’ The profit window opens. For example, the quotation of Brazilian cotton M 1-5/32 (M36) for September/October shipping date is 70-70.50 cents/pound on August 19-20, and the import cost under 1% tariff is about 11,950-12,050 yuan/ton (net weight) , and the current quotation of 31-3-36 Brazilian cotton spot by port traders is 12,900-13,000 yuan/ton, and the profit margin has expanded compared with June/July; second, since July, textile and clothing export orders in coastal areas such as Shandong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang have continued to recover. Considering that the price of Australian cotton is too high and the basis of US cotton is very strong, purchasing Brazilian cotton with high “cost-effectiveness” to replace US cotton and Australian cotton is a “win-win” situation. On August 20, the price of US cotton 31-3-37 (strong 28GPT) in Qingdao Port was 13,400-13,450 yuan/ton, while the price of M 38 (strong 29GPT) Brazilian cotton was 12,900-13,000 yuan/ton. The price difference between the two was 400-500 yuan. Yuan / ton.
Several international cotton merchants have made statistics and estimates that the sales of bonded/customs-cleared Brazilian cotton and Indian cotton at ports since early and mid-August have been “unsatisfactory”; in addition, the sales of Australian cotton in 2020 have been high due to high prices and low prices. The number of shipments and arrivals at the port is lower than expected due to the tense relations between Australia and the high value of the flower horse and slightly low quality indicators in the early stage. Therefore, the port warehousing is still mainly US cotton and a small amount of Brazilian cotton in 2019/20, and the incoming and outgoing warehousing is basically weak. Balanced state. Judging from calculations, as of late August, the total cotton inventory in China’s main ports has not exceeded 570,000 tons, of which the inventories (bonded + non-bonded) in Qingdao and surrounding ports and Zhangjiagang are 345,000-355,000 tons respectively. , 100,000-100,500 tons. </p
