Introduction: Crude oil is generally stronger due to favorable supply and demand. Under the support of cost, the PTA market has been fluctuating since August. In the middle and early half of the year, the market quickly picked up due to the narrowing of supply, and the price showed a slight upward trend. However, as the equipment was gradually restarted in the middle and late half of the year, there was no major positive push for the overall market. Under the circumstances, PTA immediately turned to a volatile pattern. As of now, the spot price of PTA is 3,565 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.42% from the beginning of the month.
Figure 1 PTA spot market price comparison chart
Source: Longzhong Information
Source: Longzhong Information
Since August, the strength of crude oil on the cost side has supported PTA costs and mentality, and the maintenance of the PTA supply side has arrived as scheduled. Recently, the maintenance of PTA equipment has been relatively concentrated, and the overall start-up has dropped to 81.01%. The maintenance of PTA equipment has been intensive recently, and the average daily output in August is expected to be around 130,000 tons. These include Ningbo Taihua’s 1.2 million ton unit overhaul for two weeks and restart on August 17, Sanfangxiang’s 1.2 million ton unit to be overhauled for one month, Yangzi Petrochemical’s 650,000 ton unit to be overhauled for two weeks on August 6, Honggang Petrochemical’s 150 The maintenance of 10,000 tons will resume on August 17. Reignwood Petrochemical’s 1.4 million tons production fell by 50% in late August. Fuhai Chuang’s 4.5 million ton unit reduced its load by 60-70% on August 12, and has now increased to 90%. Currently, the overall PTA operating capacity is 86.66%, so the PTA supply and demand pattern improved slightly in August. The supply side takes the initiative to reduce the load. If all PTA devices enter maintenance and reduce the load as scheduled, there may be phased destocking starting in mid-August. The short-term improvement in supply and demand will slightly improve the market sentiment. However, Xinfengming Equipment expects that the supply side will be more relaxed after October, which will still suppress the upward momentum of PTA in the medium and long term.
Source: Longzhong Information
Recently, new equipment in the domestic polyester industry has been put into operation and maintenance and restarting have coexisted. A new equipment has been put into operation in Nantong and Yizheng areas respectively, and Luoyang Petrochemical’s preliminary maintenance equipment will be restarted within the week. However, Jiabao has once again postponed its restart plan. Therefore, polyester output has shown Rising trend. At present, according to Longzhong’s understanding, there are plans to restart the polyester plants in the later period, such as Hengli 200,000 tons/year, Xingbang 200,000 tons/year, Zhuocheng 180,000 tons/year, etc., and in the terminal foreign trade As orders improve, the start-up of polyester factories may remain stable, so the output of the polyester industry is expected to be around 1.07-1.08 million tons.
Figure 2 Changes in comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang
Source: Longzhong Information
Recently, orders for domestic trade shoes, clothing and underwear fabrics have improved in autumn and winter, and orders for foreign trade European and American home textiles have picked up, jointly promoting the industry’s operating rate pick up. Orders for terminal weaving and printing and dyeing have rebounded, which has made the dull market have a long-awaited nectar and improved market sentiment. However, we should not be overly optimistic that just the placement of orders from Europe and the Middle East does not fully indicate that the foreign trade market has begun to fully recover. We must still pay attention to the recovery trend of orders in the later period.
Summary: The supply and demand of short-term PTA were roughly balanced or even slightly destocked in August. Maintenance on the supply side is currently more concentrated in August and September. , so it is bullish for the market when supply shrinks in August and September. The mid- to long-term cost-end supply and demand for crude oil is favorable. The cost side is relatively strong, and Longzhong Information believes that the overall PTA market will fluctuate in the short term and tend to be strong. However, in the later period, we need to guard against new production capacity on the supply side and a weakening of the peak season on the demand side. </p
