Zheng Cotton has been somewhat excited recently, fluctuating sharply in a short-term range with tops and bottoms, and the market has a strong bullish atmosphere. At the time of the annual transition between new and old cotton, it will undoubtedly bring confidence to all parties in the industry chain. Is Zheng Mian, who is hard to rise but hard to fall, starting a slow bull market?
The author believes that the current increase in cotton prices is a short-term behavior, part of which is due to the impact of US cotton. According to market news, two tropical storms will make landfall in the Gulf of Mexico this week in the United States. Among them, “Laura” is expected to make landfall near Mississippi and Alabama on Wednesday, while Tropical Storm No. 14 is expected to make landfall in the Gulf of Mexico. Landfall occurred on the Texas-Louisiana border, and cotton was in full bloom in the area. Two tropical storms have made landfall one after another, which indeed gives speculation funds a lot of room for imagination. Weather is an eternal topic for agricultural products. This time, with the topic of hurricanes, market funds will definitely not miss it easily.
On the other hand, there are good news from Sino-US economic and trade negotiations. According to the latest news, this morning, representatives from China and the United States had a constructive dialogue on the coordination of macroeconomic policies between the two countries and the implementation of the first phase of the China-US economic and trade agreement. The two sides agreed to create conditions and atmosphere to continue to promote the first phase of China-US economic and trade agreement. Implementation of phased economic and trade agreement. Such major good news is a shot in the arm for the market. Zheng Mian will inevitably rise with the help of negotiations. The later stage will depend on the specific implementation results of both parties. Of course, some people believe that the two sides have agreed to increase U.S. cotton imports, which is negative for the domestic market. Whether it is positive or negative, the market will give the answer, and there will be no defense here.
What the author wants to say is that although the good news continues, we must remain vigilant. The weather hype is based on expectations. If the degree of damage is lower than expected, it is reasonable for foreign cotton to pull back. Do not use short-term emotions to release Take it as a rising truth, because the fundamentals of oversupply have not changed. Furthermore, the relationship between China and the United States is full of uncertainty. Against the general background and trend of the United States suppressing China, the short-term peace talks are most likely due to the US president’s election interests. The Huawei and Meng Wanzhou incidents have nakedly shown The evil intentions of the United States include sanctions on Xinjiang cotton. Therefore, as an investor, you must not regard short-term rebound as a trend, because reversing the trend requires strength and cannot be achieved overnight. The author still believes that the trend of short-term shocks will not change, and does not think that the upward trend has started. It may start in the future, but now is not the time. </p
