Recently, Goldman Sachs raised its crude oil price forecast for 2021 and recommended that investors use Brent crude oil as an effective tool to hedge uncertainty.
Goldman Sachs expects a bullish outlook for the oil market in 2021 as prices recover as COVID-19 vaccines may become available.
The investment bank analysts expect to raise their 2020 Brent crude oil price forecast from US$40.51/barrel to US$43.63/barrel; their 2021 forecast will rise from US$55.63/barrel to US$59.38/barrel. By the third quarter of next year, Brent crude oil prices will rise from the current US$45/barrel to US$65/barrel. Analysts said in a report that being long-term Brent crude oil prices will improve investors’ risk returns.
Goldman Sachs also raised its expectations for WTI crude oil, raising its 2020 WTI crude oil price forecast from $36.88/barrel to $40.26/barrel; raising its 2021 WTI crude oil price forecast from $51.38/barrel to US$55.88/barrel.
Goldman Sachs analysts said it is increasingly likely that vaccines will be widely available starting next spring, which will help support global growth and a recovery in oil demand, especially jet fuel.
Goldman Sachs analysts including Damien Courvalin and Huan Wei said that the market remained stable despite the second wave of the epidemic around the world. The number of cases in the United States is currently declining, and U.S. oil demand is not declining. Fundamentals appear to favor a faster rebalancing, given the rising likelihood of U.S. vaccine supplies in the spring and major oil producers keeping capital spending low, they said.
In addition, analysts at the investment bank also said in the latest report that they expect oil demand to increase by 3.7 million barrels per day from January to August next year. On the supply side, crude oil supply will remain restricted next year due to OPEC’s continued production cuts and modest increases in non-OPEC supply.
The investment bank expects a weak recovery in global oil production excluding OPEC and its partners and North America by the end of 2020, with OPEC+ sticking to its production quotas in the second half of the year and crude supply in 2021 will be more tense.
Goldman Sachs analysts said in July that oil demand would grow by 2022, driven by millions of people returning to work, turning more to private transportation and government support in the form of infrastructure spending. may return to pre-crisis levels.
Oil prices rose this week, driven by a weak dollar and plans by the United Arab Emirates’ state-owned oil company to reduce crude oil supply by as much as 30% in October, pushing crude prices to their highest level in five months. level. </p
