The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively fell sharply, with the Nasdaq falling 4.96%, the S&P 500 falling 3.51%, and the Dow falling 2.78%. Both recorded their largest single-day declines since June 11. Major technology stocks led the market decline. Tesla fell 9%, down about $100 from its post-split high; Apple fell 8%, down about $17 from this week’s high; Zoom fell about 10%, down from this week’s high. Points fell back around $100. Cruise stocks and airline stocks bucked the trend and closed higher, with Azul rising nearly 6% and Carnival Cruise Line rising more than 5%.
The Nasdaq index has been trading above the 50-day moving average for more than 100 consecutive days. According to the media It said that whenever the index is above the 50-day moving average for about 100 consecutive days, it will fall sharply. On Thursday, the index fell more than 5% intraday, which may be the beginning of a larger correction.
The U.S. stock fear index VIX rose 26.46% to 33.60, and the options market became more worried about the future of U.S. stocks. The GVZ (precious metals VIX) index rose 0.47%. The OVX (VIX of crude oil ETF) index rose 16.31%.
The settlement price of WTI October crude oil futures closed down 0.34%, at US$41.37/barrel; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in November was at US$44.07/barrel, down 0.81%.
COMEX December gold futures closed down about 0.4% at $1,937.80 per ounce, a new closing low since August 27.
The Federal Reserve’s weekly report showed that total assets fell by US$45.2 billion to US$4.49 trillion in the latest week.
In late trading in New York on Thursday, the U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury bond yield fell 1.30 basis points to 0.6347%. The 20-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 0.62 basis points to 1.1487%; it once hit a daily low of 1.0961% at 11:19 a.m. ET, but then surged and continued to rebound during the midday session, recovering most of the day’s losses, although The panic index soared and U.S. stocks plummeted. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 1.72 basis points to 1.3616%. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 0.59 basis points to 0.1270%. The five-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 0.32 basis points to 0.2484%. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury yields fell 0.711 basis points to 50.580 basis points; the spread between the 10-year and 3-month U.S. Treasury yields fell 1.046 basis points to 52.796 basis points.
Chicago Fed President Evans and Atlanta Fed President Bostic said on September 3 that more information (transparency) related to the U.S. economic outlook is needed before Will consider supporting the Federal Reserve’s latest guidance on the path of the federal funds rate. Evans said that if he had a clearer view on the U.S. economic situation in the spring of 2021, he would know whether the FOMC needs to implement unconventional easing policies like the one launched during the last economic recovery.
Commodities generally fell in late trading, with Shanghai copper closing down 1.18%, Shanghai aluminum closing down 0.80%, Shanghai zinc closing down 1.83%, Shanghai lead closing down 2.19%, and Shanghai nickel closing down. It closed down 2.71%, and Shanghai Tin closed down 1.53%. Glass fell more than 4%, iron ore, SS, etc. fell more than 2%, Zhengzhou oil, pulp, etc. fell more than 1%, VC, EG, etc. fell slightly, and only corn, starch, and beans rose slightly.
International crude oil has sharply corrected, has the supply side relaxed?
International crude oil prices have fluctuated significantly recently. Affected by concerns about weak gasoline demand and sluggish economic recovery in the United States, international crude oil prices still fell sharply despite data released by the United States on September 2 showing a large decline in crude oil inventories.
On September 2, data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories last week were 498.4 million barrels, a decrease of 9.4 million barrels from the previous month, and the decline was significantly greater than market expectations. At the close of the day, the NYMEX October contract price fell by US$1.25 to close at US$41.51/barrel, a decrease of 2.92%. On the 3rd, international crude oil prices continued to fall.
“In September, with the successive release of monthly data, the market began to be wary of the loosening of the supply side. Iraq stated that if compensatory production cuts cannot be completed by the end of September, Iraq will request that the compensation period be extended to the end of November. The United Arab Emirates is also making noises about increasing production, which makes the market worried about the loosening of the supply side. In fact, in the past three consecutive weeks, funds have reduced their net long positions in a single week by about 10,000 lots. This is a A phenomenon worthy of vigilance is that funds have shown a lack of willingness to pursue higher prices at the current position. After the market sentiment suffered a setback, it is not difficult to understand that oil prices have fallen significantly.” Yang An, head of energy and chemical R&D of Haitong Futures, said about futures a daily reporter said.
Recently, international crude oil prices have shown a downward trend. Liu Jiao, an analyst at Huishang Futures Research Institute, believes that this is affected by the return to normal production of most oil and gas fields in the U.S. Gulf region. On the other hand, demand for gasoline and distillates in the United States has declined, and the market is still concerned about the recovery of crude oil demand. In addition, although inventories continue to decline, they are still sufficient for the current sluggish demand.
As of the week of August 28, EIA crude oil inventory changes actually announced a decrease of 9.362 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 2 million barrels, and both refined oil inventories and gasoline inventories fell at the same rate. It exceeded expectations and brought short-term support to the market. On September 2, data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 498.4 million barrels last week, a decrease of 9.4 million barrels from the previous month, and the decline was significantly greater than the market.The price dropped by 10 yuan/ton from last week. The price of scrap steel at leading steel mills in East China increased by 50 yuan/ton. The price of coke remained stable. The price of steel billet increased by 50 yuan/ton. The price of rebar remained stable. It can be seen from the increase that the trend of iron ore is weak, while the trend of steel billet is strong.
“In general, the support for iron ore supply and demand still exists, but the intensity has weakened: shipments have picked up with absolutely low port inventories, and demand is at a historic high.” Zhuochuang Information Analyst Chen Zhao said.
He believes that the current overall inventory of raw material iron ore is still low, and the total port inventory has recently shown a rebound trend. Among them, the Australian mine inventory is hovering at a low level and is still declining slightly. The inventory trend in Brazil shows an overall increase trend. Added to the influence of recent typhoons and other factors, it is difficult for the iron ore arrival volume to increase significantly, so there is strong support for iron ore prices. “In the short term, we need to pay attention to changes in the external shipping environment, especially the Australian shipping situation. If Australia significantly increases shipping volume, the structural contradictions of iron ore will also be alleviated to a certain extent, which will bring certain pressure to the iron ore spot market, and Against the background of low total port volume, whether demand intensity can continue to remain at a high level will also be a key factor in whether the iron ore market can stabilize. The market has strong expectations for the ‘Golden Nine and Silver Ten’ in 2020, and attention is paid to whether finished product transactions can occur. With the increase in volume, iron ore prices are also facing certain challenges from both supply and demand perspectives,” Chen Zhao said.
“Downstream rebar is showing a decline in supply and demand. The supply is at a historically high level, the inventory is on the high side, and the demand continues to be strong.” Chen Zhao introduced that at present, domestic steel companies Profit levels still exist, downstream steel companies have stable production, and their willingness to reduce production is weak. Thread production is currently at a high level.
In fact, the demand-side real estate industry is facing policy tightening, which has had a certain impact on the current market mentality. The finished product transaction situation has weakened compared with the previous period. The current “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” expectations are strong , the market still has high expectations for the country’s counter-cyclical regulation and peak season demand intensity. Whether the current demand intensity can be maintained or even improved, Chen Zhao believes that we need to pay attention to the transaction status of the finished product market and the process of destocking.
“Currently, the profits of downstream steel mills are at a low level, but as long as positive profits can be maintained, the motivation of downstream steel companies to reduce production will be greatly reduced. This is why the cost of raw materials is high and inventory The fundamental reason why production continues to remain at a high level under a relatively high background. In the case of excess steel production capacity, only increasing production can increase revenue. Stopping production and reducing production will face the risk of being replaced by its own company’s share. Therefore, from the perspective of profit and market share, downstream Steel companies have insufficient motivation to proactively reduce production and will maintain a relatively high production level in the future.” Chen Zhao said that in the future, we need to pay attention to policy changes and beware of passive production cuts that exceed expectations. At present, Tangshan and Anyang regions have successively introduced short-term production limit policies. The production limit mainly affects sintering relief and has a smaller impact on the start of blast furnaces. Therefore, it has little impact on the total demand for iron ore and more on steel. The corporate procurement structure has a certain impact. If passive production cuts spread to blast furnaces in the later period and the scope of environmental protection production restrictions expands, it will also have a greater impact on iron ore demand, thus putting greater pressure on iron ore.
In Chen Zhao’s view, downstream demand mainly revolves around real estate and new infrastructure. The most important demand point is still real estate. From a policy perspective, in July, many places Reaffirm the purchase restriction policy in places such as Hebei Huailai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Hainan and other places. If the real estate industry faces policy tightening, the most important demand points in the downstream steel market will also put greater pressure on the upstream. Combined with the high turnover strategy of real estate , so it is necessary to raise a question mark as to whether the market outlook can maintain its current hot intensity. We should continue to pay attention to changes in downstream terminal policies to see whether there will be expanding risks in the market outlook. At present, new infrastructure construction will still maintain a certain degree of popularity, especially the implementation of new infrastructure projects in urban agglomerations will also bring a certain increase in demand for the steel market as always. Therefore, whether the demand side can ensure demand intensity requires attention to the actual transaction status of finished products.
The main contract of red dates continues to rise
Recently, the price of red dates has increased The steady rise has also attracted market attention. Yesterday, the main red date contract CJ2101 led the commodity market with an increase of 2.46%, closing at 10015 yuan/ton. In fact, the rising channel of red dates prices started in late August, with an increase of more than 5% from the previous stage low of 9,520 yuan/ton.
“It is normal for the new season red dates contract to rebound significantly. The 2009 contract has entered the delivery month, and the suppression of the far month has been eliminated. The new season red dates are still growing on the trees, and until the frost It is then naturally hung to dry for 10-20 days before it can be harvested from the tree for sale. During this period, the weather will have an impact on the yield and quality, which is difficult to estimate. Coupled with the impact of the epidemic, the understanding of Xinjiang production areas is one-sided. And this year is the key to poverty alleviation. In a critical year, the red date market support policy is likely to continue to be implemented. Early rumors that there are more abandoned planting and felling of trees in some areas of Xinjiang are all bullish for the new season contract, so there will be a recent rebound.” Yide Futures Fresh Products Division Analyst Wang Bo told reporters.
According to him, due to the previous impact, the sales of red dates this year have been relatively weak, especially in the early days of Dragon Boat Festival and May Day, the festival drive was limited. Recently, the Cangzhou market has seen growth in sales. It remains to be seen how effective the “Double Festival” will be. From a macro perspective, it will take some time for demand to recover, and the current inventory balance is relatively high.
“In the later stage, we need to focus on: the weather conditions before the red dates are under the trees; the impact of abandoned species and tree felling in Xinjiang on the yield; specific measures to support the market policy; the stocking situation before the “Double Festival”; Factors such as capital factors and the opening price of red dates. It is difficult to determine whether the rising trend can continue.” Wang Bo said.
�It takes a certain amount of time, and the current inventory remaining is relatively high.
“In the later stage, we need to focus on: the weather conditions before the red dates are under the trees; the impact of abandoned species and tree felling in Xinjiang on the yield; specific measures to support the market policy; the stocking situation before the “Double Festival”; Factors such as capital factors and the opening price of red dates. It is difficult to determine whether the rising trend can continue.” Wang Bo said. </p
