Introduction: After continuing its strong performance, international crude oil began to fall back over the weekend, but naphtha and ethylene prices remained strong, with obvious cost-side support; domestic ethylene glycol supply increased, but the volume is still limited, and polyester is in peak demand season The end performance is stable; the market price of ethylene glycol continues to rise. Whether it will continue to maintain or maintain a range-bound market will be discussed in detail below.
Chart of domestic ethylene glycol market price trend chart:
Source ：Longzhong Information
Recently, ethylene glycol has been affected by the expected decline in imports. The new domestic production capacity has not yet been fully released, and the start-up of coal-fired enterprises has not yet significantly increased. Mainly in East China, Hong Kong is expected to continue destocking in mid-to-early September.
Overseas installation situation
Affected by the hurricane weather in the United States, the two countries in the United States A set of ethylene glycol units with capacities of 280,000 tons/year and 340,000 tons/year were originally planned to restart last weekend. However, the shutdown time of the above units has been extended and the restart time is to be determined. In addition, the 700,000 tons/year ethylene glycol unit of Rabigh Refinery in Saudi Arabia also unexpectedly shut down in late August. Canada Dow’s 350,000 tons/year, Taiwan Province Nan Ya’s 2#360,000 tons/year and 3#360,000 tons The device is undergoing planned maintenance.
Main port inventory and expected arrival situation
Therefore, the market There are currently strong expectations for a decline in imports in September. As of September 3, the inventory of ethylene glycol ports in the main port area of East China is approximately 1.3765 million tons; this week, the total arrival volume of mainstream inventory terminals in East China is expected to be 204,200 tons, including 118,700 tons in Zhangjiagang, 12,000 tons in Ningbo, and 4 in Taicang 0,000 tons, Jiangyin 33,500 tons, and Shanghai 0,000 tons. The arrival volume is neutral, but lower than the previous period. It is expected that the main port in East China will have a slight destocking market in mid-to-early September.
Downstream polyester demand situation
The traditional peak season of “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” Next, the terminal order situation has recovered. Although the polyester end is facing high inventory, there are devices on site with restart plans, such as Zhuocheng maintenance device, Yijin production reduction device, etc., and Hengchao’s new device is also expected to be put into operation during the week. The start-up of polyester factories may maintain an upward trend, so the output of the polyester industry is expected to be around 1.09-1.1 million tons this week (0904-0910). In addition, antifreeze is in the peak production and sales season, and the overall demand side performs well.
Domestic installation situation
Source: Longzhong Information
As can be seen from the above table, the number of maintenance companies in September is significantly reduced compared with August, and new equipment will also be concentrated in mid-September. Products will be put into the market, and the increase will be This amount just makes up for the reduction in imports. If the current analysis script is followed, the overall supply in September will not change much compared with August.
Taken together: The supply and demand side of the ethylene glycol market in September is still expected to be destocked. Although there are expectations for the release of new production capacity in September, based on actual progress, the contribution of actual production is estimated to be postponed to around mid-to-late term. However, in terms of imports, due to the opening of the regional arbitrage window, the centralized maintenance of North American equipment and the impact of shipping schedules, the import volume is expected to decrease steadily before the end of the year.
On the demand side, more than 900,000 tons of new polyester production capacity were added in September. Driven by the new release, the market’s rigid demand has performed steadily, and the overall supply and demand performance has been relatively benign. Overall, the ethylene glycol range oscillation in September is relatively strong, and the rhythm is likely to increase first and then decrease. Longzhong Information predicts that the price reference range is 3850-4150 yuan/ton. </p
