Yesterday afternoon, the agricultural products sector in the domestic futures market rose sharply, with apples hitting their daily limit, and eggs and soybean oil rising by more than 2%. Chemicals fell sharply, and crude oil fell more than 3%.
However, market sentiment suddenly changed in the evening. Shortly after the domestic futures market opened at night, the main crude oil futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange hit the lower limit, falling 8% during the day. At 11 o’clock in the night, WTI crude oil futures continued to fall, plummeting 9% during the day to US$36.19 per barrel, continuing to hit a new low since June 15. As of the close, the crude oil futures 2010 contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 8.02% in night trading at 251.00 yuan/barrel. WTI October crude oil futures closed down $3.01, or 7.57%, at $36.76 per barrel.
U.S. stocks opened sharply last night, with the Dow falling 1.42% and falling below the 28,000-point mark; the Nasdaq fell more than 3.5%, falling below the 11,000-point mark; and the S&P 500 fell 2.09%. At the close of trading this morning, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively fell sharply, dragged down by technology stocks. The Nasdaq led the way down by 4.11%; the S&P 500 index fell by 2.78%. Among technology stocks, Tesla fell about 21%, its largest single-day decline.
Oil prices plummeted again, what happened?
Regarding the recent continuous decline in oil prices, Yang An, an analyst at Haitong Futures, told a reporter from Futures Daily that the core driving force for the recent decline in the crude oil market is the lack of bright spots on both the supply and demand sides, and signs of loosening on the supply side, triggering market concerns. mood. The recent forward curve of international oil prices has weakened, and Saudi Arabia has also significantly reduced its discount to Asian customers. This has further increased the market’s concerns about supply and demand. The accumulated adjustment demand for a long time has begun to control judgments, and pessimism has continued to strengthen. Therefore, Oil prices continued to fall.
“Although oil prices continue to fall under the inertia of correction in the short term, the current oil price is actually not high. At present, there is ample liquidity in the financial market and there is a large demand for asset allocation. As Brent oil price approaches US$40 / barrel, WTI crude oil falls below 38 US dollars / barrel, which will attract funds to buy, and low oil prices are also the best balancer of supply and demand in the crude oil market. Therefore, we believe that oil prices do not have the conditions to continue to fall deeply, and this round of correction should have already It has released the main room for correction, and the room for continued decline is relatively limited. US$40/barrel is a relatively strong support level for Brent crude oil and deserves our continued attention.” Yang An said.
Gui Chenxi, a crude oil researcher at CITIC Futures, believes that there are three reasons for the decline in crude oil: 1. The decline in U.S. stocks. The volume and price structure of crude oil futures in July began to diverge. Spot discounts and inter-month spreads, which represent fundamentals, have weakened, funds’ net long positions, which represent market sentiment, have continued to decline, while unilateral oil prices have maintained a strong oscillation, supported by the continued rise of U.S. stocks and hitting record highs. U.S. stocks have fallen back from their highs recently and financial support has weakened, triggering a correction in oil prices. 2. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates lowered their official prices. Last weekend, Saudi Arabia announced that it had lowered its official export prices to Asia for two consecutive months. This week, the United Arab Emirates also significantly lowered its official export prices. There are signs of a mild price war. 3. Demand for oil products is lower than expected, and refinery profits continue to be weak. The epidemic recurred in the United States in July and in Europe in August, resulting in repeated progress in demand recovery. As refineries resume production, the increase in supply is greater than demand. Diesel inventory has increased to historical highs. Profits have fallen sharply, putting pressure on the recovery of production in the later period, further affecting crude oil demand.
Looking ahead to the market outlook, Gui Chenxi said that the fall in U.S. stocks triggered a decline in U.S. oil, and the amplified decline in U.S. oil further put downward pressure on U.S. stocks; coupled with the technical release after a prolonged period of early consolidation, if quantitative strategies are triggered to follow , there may still be room for downside in the short term. In the medium term, if the U.S. stock market stops falling and the oil market rebalances, oil prices may return to oscillation.
Apple hit its daily limit in late trading, is bullish sentiment getting stronger?
Yesterday, Apple futures suddenly rose sharply, rising more than 6% in late trading and hitting the daily limit. The price hit a three-week high. In the past three days, Apple futures have risen by more than 500 points from their lows.
Haitong Futures analyst Kong Lingqi said that the apple market began to pick up at the end of August, mainly because the supply of low-priced early-maturing fruits decreased during this period, especially the low-priced and medium-quality supply suitable for e-commerce sales was basically sold out. , and the late-maturing Fuji has not yet been launched, the remaining high-quality merchant goods have taken advantage of this gap period to slightly increase their prices. This situation is relatively common in Shandong. In addition, there has been a lot of rain in the coastal production areas of Shandong this year, and the early-maturing Gala fruits in some orchards have become watery and rotten. In addition, the apples in some towns in western Yantai are relatively small and the overall quality is not very good. Therefore, the current situation in the spot market is poor. Goods cannot be sold, medium goods are sold out, and high-quality goods and cold storage goods take the opportunity to increase prices.
“But this situation is not expected to last long. Starting from this month, Red General in Shandong has begun to supply. Current news shows that the quality of Red General is relatively good, which can make up for the gap period to a certain extent. Demand, late-maturing Fuji began to go on the market in late September. Although the output is not as good as last year, it still remains at about 40 million tons, basically meeting market demand. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the National Day stocking situation and the cold storage storage volume, because the contract will be canceled in July next year , if the storage volume this year is large, the May contract may face greater inventory pressure.” Kong Lingqi said.
Yide Futures analyst Wang Bo also believes that the duration of this rise is limited: “In terms of spot prices, early-maturing Fuji in Shaanxi has basically ended, and late-maturing Fuji has sporadic out of bags. Judging from the order price, the price of late-maturing Fuji is basically the same as last year. Or slightly higher than last year. The early-maturing Fuji trade in Jingning has just begun, and the price for good products is 3.00-3.50 yuan/catty. The northwest region was affected by frost in the early stage, and production was indeed reduced by about 30%. The current supply price is slightly higher.normal. The sales in Shandong have come to an end, and Red General has not yet been put on the market in large quantities. The current price of Red General is about 1 yuan lower per catty than in previous years. Judging from the positions held one day before the 10-contract position limit in the past, the current 10-contract position exceeds 140,000 lots (unilateral), and there is great pressure to reduce long and short positions, which in turn intensifies the long-short game. There are still 5 trading days to limit positions. Last week, short sellers began to realize profits and reduce their positions. Bulls took advantage of the time difference and increased their positions yesterday to create a short-term upward trend, thereby clearing out excess positions. From a fundamental perspective, the upward trend will not last long. ”
Egg prices are picking up, can the rise continue?
In early July this year, egg prices hit their lowest level this year. From July Since mid-month, egg prices have continued to rise. In August, the egg wholesale market price was 4.07 yuan/jin, an increase of 19.01% from July. Yesterday’s closing egg futures price rose again by 2.5%.
Shenyin Wanguo Futures Analyst Zhou Yimin said that in terms of spot prices, egg prices have always been at a low level since the Spring Festival this year. Egg prices in production areas once fell to around 2 yuan/jin, falling below historical lows. In mid-to-late February, as the domestic epidemic situation got worse, Effective control, the circulation and consumption of eggs have gradually resumed, and egg prices have increased. However, the overall inventory of laying hens is high, and downstream group consumption is still insufficient, so egg prices are still at a low level. After April, with the increase in egg prices Due to the increase in chicken stock and flat demand, eggs have been falling. In early July, egg prices hit the lowest level this year. Egg prices began to rise in mid-July, but the high stock of laying hens made the rise in egg prices weak. , starting in mid-August, it was supposed to be the time for the seasonal rise in egg prices, but the rise in egg prices was weak and fell to near the cost line again.
“In sharp contrast to the weak spot price, this year’s egg futures far The monthly contract has always maintained a high premium level. The main reason is that after the overall loss of breeding in the first half of this year, the market expects that the number of livestock will be significantly reduced, and the egg supply may shrink. Judging from the results, spot prices lacked momentum, and futures prices fell rapidly to get closer to spot prices as the contract neared expiration. At the same time, the long-term high premium of futures has given breeding companies better hedging opportunities. Although spot prices have suffered long-term losses, the price given by futures is basically above the cost of breeding. Breeding companies can significantly reduce losses or even turn losses into profits by using futures hedging. . On the other hand, from 2017 to early 2020, egg farming has experienced a high-profit cycle of two and a half years, and farmers have a strong ability to withstand short-term losses. Therefore, we believe that the cycle of egg losses this time may be relatively long, with a high probability of continuing until the end of the year. In the short term, the stock of laying hens in the current market is still high, and the number of new laying hens will also be high. In addition, egg prices are generally profitable in August and September, and there is little willingness to eliminate chickens. The overall supply of the market is sufficient. , it is expected that spot egg prices may fall after mid-September, and there is a certain downside risk in the corresponding futures near-month contract. “Yiyi Min said.
Hou Xiaorui, an analyst at Yide Futures, believes that from a fundamental point of view, the number of laying hens increased month-on-month in August, and the rebound in the number of laying hens from March to April led to a decline in the number of laying hens from August to September. New production increased. Before the Mid-Autumn Festival, it was the peak period for laying hens to be eliminated. From late August, market elimination began to increase, and the age of laying hens began to be eliminated earlier, but there was no sign of over-purchasing. After October, the new production was less, and 11 -01 New production has gradually increased, but the increase is obviously not as good as the replenishment situation in April 2020. In addition, as the spot price oscillates up and down the cost line for a long time, the age of the chickens to be eliminated will be set at 450-480 days. Calculated from the time, 9 The phasing out of laying hens after June 2019 will be the replenishment after June 2019. As of March 2021, the elimination of high-replenishment laying hens in 2019 has basically ended. Overall, the number of laying hens will show a trend of decreasing month by month. As the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches, , short-term spot prices are still mainly strong, and after the Mid-Autumn Festival, spot prices are still mainly downward. After the futures market experienced a sharp decline in the early stage, short sellers have taken profits and left the market in recent months, and there is still a possibility of falling after a short-term rebound. In the long term, With the gradual elimination of high-replenishment laying hens in 2019, the supply of eggs has been decreasing month by month, and has been relatively strong in the distant months.</p
