Futures are about to be launched, and the traditional trading method of polyester staple fiber may change. In the following, the author will discuss the basic knowledge of polyester staple fiber, current fundamental situation, future trends, A brief introduction to various aspects such as the impact that futures listing will bring, in order to answer questions for our customers and friends.
1. Product introduction
Polyester fiber ranks first among synthetic fibers and is divided into two categories: polyester filament and polyester staple fiber. Among them, polyester staple fiber, whose English name is Polyester staple fiber, or PSF for short, is called the three major raw materials of the cotton spinning industry together with cotton and viscose staple fiber. The products are mainly used in the cotton spinning industry (spinning), spun alone or combined with cotton and viscose staple fiber. It is blended with viscose fiber, linen, wool, vinylon, etc. The resulting yarn is mainly used for textile clothing, but can also be used in non-woven fabrics, filling materials, thermal insulation materials and other industries. The current quality standards currently comply with GB T 14464-2017; the main product specifications include semi-matt white 1.56dtex*38mm (base specification), semi-gloss 1.33*38mm, glossy 1.33*38mm, 1.56*38mm spunlace special specifications, 2.22/ 2.78*51mm medium-long fiber, 3-15D three-dimensional hollow, low melting point (4080) short fiber, etc. Other specifications such as ultra-fine denier, colored, and cationic short fiber account for a relatively small proportion.
Unit introduction:
Denier (D): is a type of chemical fiber The expression method of fineness refers to the weight in grams of fiber with a length of 9000 meters, also known as denier. It is usually represented by D. The larger the D, the thicker the fiber. Such as 1.4D, 1.2D, 2D, 6D, etc.
Detex (dtex): Dectex is the international unit of fiber fineness. The weight of a fiber 10,000 meters long is in grams. The larger the number of grams, the thicker the yarn or fiber. . Such as 1.56dtex, 1.33dtex, 2.22dtex, etc.
Conversion method between the two:
Detex (dtex) = 1.11*denier ( D)
The position of polyester staple fiber in the polyester industry chain
Data source: Longzhong Information
Figure 1 Polyester products Production capacity ratio
Based on the polyester production capacity (6327) in August 2020, polyester staple fiber accounts for approximately 13% of the entire polyester production capacity. The proportion in the polyester industry is not high, but due to the large number of traders and downstream companies, the transaction activity of polyester staple fiber in polyester products is relatively good.
Polyester staple fiber supply and demand fundamentals
Note: The import and export volume is the amount of recycled short fiber discarded.
Based on 2019, China’s total melt direct spinning polyester staple fiber production capacity (including hollow and low melting point) is 7.901 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.52%. The actual The output was 6.2526 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.46%. In the past five years, the direct-spun polyester staple fiber industry has gradually transformed from oversupply to a balance between supply and demand. Specifically, from 2015 to 2016, the direct-spun polyester staple fiber industry suffered from a long-term oversupply situation, and the capacity utilization rate continued to operate at a low level of 60%-70%. However, since the “waste ban” policy was implemented in 2017, direct-spun polyester staple fiber has replaced some recycled polyester staple fibers in some fields (mainly low-end spinning and filling industries), and the industry’s supply and demand relationship has been rebalanced. The industry’s profitability has increased significantly, which has also prompted the polyester staple fiber industry to usher in a peak of capacity expansion in 2018. However, due to the rapid expansion of polyester staple fiber production capacity, the follow-up of traditional downstream demand has not been as strong as the increase in supply. The contradiction between supply and demand in the industry may become prominent again in the future.
Downstream consumption proportion
Data source: Longzhong Information
Figure 2 Proportion of downstream consumption of direct-spun polyester staple fiber
Still based on 2019 data, spinning and thread making The (sewing thread) field accounts for 76.2% of the entire polyester staple fiber consumer market, so polyester staple fiber still accounts for the largest proportion in the textile sector. However, due to the impact of the epidemic in 2020, the proportion of non-woven fabrics (including needle punched and spunlace) has increased. In addition, in the filling industry, as hollow and low-melting point staple fibers continue to occupy the recycled market, market consumption has also increased. , but the actual consumption of conventional single yarn and sewing thread industries is difficult to increase as the textile and apparel sector is affected by trade frictions and the continued spread of overseas epidemics.
3. Future development trends of the industry
1. Will gradually replace conventional recycled polyester fiber (mainly recycled staple fiber), in the future the recycled market may only have differentiated products and GRS certified products with better liquidity. Since the peak of PX capacity expansion in 2019, we have�Polymerization costs are relatively low, and the end of 2020 to 2021 is the big year for the PTA industry to start production. Direct-spun staple fiber will still maintain an absolute low-cost price advantage in recent years, and the market will continue to replace the recycled polyester staple fiber market in the future. Share, especially in the direct spinning hollow and low melting point sectors, there is still a lot of room for development in the future.
2. Due to the serious homogeneity of products in the spinning sector, and the entry of refining and chemical integration companies, industry competition will intensify. In the future, the products of polyester staple fiber companies will The differentiation rate will continue to increase. At present, the differentiation rate of polyester staple fiber in my country is still low, and the product added value is not high. In order to enhance the comprehensive competitiveness of enterprises, in the future, spunlace staple fiber, cationic, colored polyester fiber, ultra-fine denier staple fiber, high shrinkage polyester, ultra-short fiber The proportion of differentiated products such as fiber and degradable polyester may gradually increase.
4. Futures are about to be launched, what changes will happen to the industry
For polyester staple fiber He said that the listing of futures will help manufacturing companies, traders and downstream companies provide means and tools for discovering prices and avoiding risks for their production and operations. An efficient and standardized futures delivery system will also help guide the industry to optimize pricing models, improve product quality and warehousing and logistics levels, and promote industrial structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading. In addition, the most important thing is that the listing of futures may lead to changes in traditional trading methods.
For a long time, industry insiders have relatively single judgments on the polyester staple fiber market. Trade and downstream users mostly obtain goods in the form of contracts or spot transactions. Usually, It is a unilateral transaction. The traditional trade model is very simple. Many traders and buyers choose the most primitive and crude way – hoarding goods and betting on one side, waiting for the market to rise. However, as the factors affecting the market increase, it becomes increasingly difficult for companies to make profits in this way. The futures listing will also break this traditional trading method. In the future, polyester staple fiber spot companies will have more flexible and diverse ways to avoid risks. Price point, guaranteed price, basis trade and other models will also become new trends in the polyester staple fiber industry.
As the futures market approaches, more and more futures companies are involved in the polyester staple fiber trade. They perform hedging and arbitrage with PTA futures. take the chance. In the future development of the industry, industrial customers such as manufacturing companies, traders and downstream companies will also need to use futures tools for hedging to avoid the risk of price fluctuations and stabilize production and operations.
In addition, as the futures market approaches, the polyester staple fiber pricing model will also change in the future, and basis trade may appear as a new spot pricing model. in the market.
Taken together, as the launch of polyester staple fiber futures approaches, it is the general trend for industrial customers to closely integrate with futures, and the means for industrial customers to avoid risks will become more diversified. But no matter what, the basis for avoiding risks is still an accurate grasp of the market.
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