On the evening of September 17th, Beijing time, the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) held a meeting. OPEC+ said it has no intention to take further measures to restrict supply, but emphasized that it fully abides by the output agreement and monitors “cheating countries” to compensate for excess production. In addition, Saudi Energy Minister Abdul Aziz called out short sellers and warned crude oil speculators not to go against OPEC+. If necessary, OPEC+ can “actively” adjust production reduction quotas in 2021 without having to wait until the next meeting. International oil prices closed higher. As of early morning today, WTI crude oil rose by 1.95% and Brent crude oil rose by 2.05%.
It is worth noting that most agricultural product futures closed higher last night, with U.S. soybean meal rising 2.79% , U.S. Sugar rose 2.11%. Analysts believe that the dual bullish factors of expected reductions in U.S. soybean production and strong demand in China are the main reasons for the recent rise in soybean futures prices. However, as the two positive factors of lower yields and strong U.S. soybean exports are gradually being digested by the market, there are signs of stagflation in short-term soybean meal prices. The subsequent rise will need new contradictions to drive it. The market outlook can focus on the growth of new crop exports. production (October), the recovery of feed demand and the planting of new soybean crops in Brazil (November), as well as the continued progress in Sino-US trade relations.
On Thursday, domestic commodity futures closed mixed. Agricultural products are on a strong upward trend, and oils and fats continue to rise. The soybean oil 2101 contract has increased by 5.09% this week, the palm oil 2101 contract has increased by 6.06% this week, and the rapeseed 2101 contract has increased by 3.24% this week. Corn, sugar, and red dates are strong. . The black series led the decline, with iron ore falling nearly 3% and thermal coal plunging more than 1%. Nonferrous metals fell sharply, with Shanghai Nickel and Shanghai Silver falling more than 2%, and Shanghai Tin and Shanghai Zinc falling more than 1%. Crude oil futures rebounded, rising more than 1%.
The domestic futures market is “green, red, thin”, with oils and fats leading the gains
Yesterday, the domestic oil and fat futures market continued to rise. Xie Wen, an agricultural product analyst at Zhongda Futures, told a reporter from Futures Daily that from a fundamental point of view, inventories in Malaysia, where they are produced, are lower than expected, and export data in September are good. Coupled with the possibility of La Niña in the autumn, the market is increasingly worried about the supply side. The domestic epidemic situation is stable. With the approaching of the Double Festival, demand is relatively strong, and the market has strong motivation to do long oils.
“Domestic soybean oil spot prices continue to rise, and basis quotes in various places have increased by 150-250 yuan/ton, and excessive basis may lead to a certain delay in shipments. However, In the near future, downstream buyers still have demand for stocking, and the circulating inventory of soybean oil is not high. The high basis of soybean oil may continue in the short term. The price of U.S. soybeans has hit a new high, which is good for domestic soybean oil prices. The high basis of domestic soybean oil continues, soybean oil Prices may continue to be strong. Given that soybean oil has reached a stage high, pay attention to high risks in operation.” Xie Wen said.
Malaysian palm oil exports fell 11.31% month-on-month to 1.58 million tons in August, compared with 1.78 million tons last month. By country, exports to my country increased by 2.21% month-on-month to 295,000 tons, exports to India decreased by 27.56% month-on-month to 329,900 tons, and exports to the EU decreased by 7.49% month-on-month to 159,100 tons. Xie Wen believes that after last month’s strong exports, there is no doubt that the export volume will decline month-on-month this month. However, this export data is higher than market expectations. The purchase volume of my country and the European Union is relatively stable. India’s demand for replenishment has declined due to the decline in inventory. As well as the impact of the epidemic, purchase volume has declined. In the later period, India experienced an explosive replenishment in July. Although there was a decline in August, the magnitude was still relatively objective. Purchase volume may return to a relatively strong state in September. From the perspective of high-frequency data, SGS data shows that from September 1 to 10, Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 25.6% month-on-month to 467,400 tons, of which exports to India will double last month. Overall, the global epidemic is still not under control. Once the epidemic improves, there is still room for growth in future demand.
In terms of rapeseed oil, domestic rapeseed crushing volume is currently at a low level, and coastal rapeseed oil stocks are 240,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 46%. Currently, Canada is profitable in importing rapeseed oil, but in view of the incident of imported rapeseed oil entering customs in August, the actual import volume of rapeseed oil is not good. Rapeseed and rapeseed oil supply issues still support rapeseed oil prices. The spot trading of vegetable oil was light, and the basis price remained stable. Looking forward to the market outlook, Xie Wen believes that the rising prices of soybean oil and palm oil have boosted the price of rapeseed oil, and there is a high probability that rapeseed oil will follow the price rise of other oils in the short term.
Iron ore leads the decline in black commodities
Black this week The overall commodity prices fell sharply, among which iron ore, which was strong in the early period, fell the most. The main contract has fallen by about 7% this week, threaded hot coil has also fallen by nearly 3%, and coke has fallen by about 1.5%.
Qiu Yuecheng, director of black research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, told a Futures Daily reporter that there are three main reasons for the sharp decline in black commodity prices this week: First, new real estate construction and infrastructure construction in August The data fell short of expectations, and the expectation of an improvement in demand for steel during the peak season was basically falsified, which dealt a big blow to market confidence. Second, iron ore shipments increased significantly, and arrivals and port inventories also increased significantly. The total volume and structure of iron ore The supply of steel has been significantly alleviated; thirdly, the apparent demand for rebar and the destocking situation are still not ideal. High output and high inventory have significantly suppressed prices. At the same time, the low profit of materials has caused the pricing of raw materials to be revalued.
From iron oreIn terms of application, it is generally sufficient. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, my country imported 100.36 million tons of iron ore and concentrate in August, a month-on-month decrease of 10.9%. From January to August, my country imported 759.915 million tons of iron ore and concentrate, a year-on-year increase of 11%. According to Mysteel statistics, from the beginning of the year to September 4, the arrival volume of imported ore at the six northern ports was 391.871 million tons, an increase of 55.805 million tons compared with the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 16.61%. Since the beginning of the year, iron ore imports and arrivals have increased significantly, and the supply is generally abundant.
According to statistics, the blast furnace operating rate of 163 steel plants was 70.72%, a decrease of 0.27 percentage points from last week, and the capacity utilization rate was 78.43%, a decrease of 0.77 percentage points. Tangshan continued to restrict production last weekend due to air quality factors. In early September, the output of steel plants fell by 107,800 tons from the previous month to 3.7154 million tons. The output of steel plants showed signs of decline. After July, blast furnace profits have been significantly compressed, but blast furnace capacity utilization has not changed significantly, and the overall rate remains high. Strong demand is the core factor supporting iron ore prices.
As of September 4, the total iron ore inventory of Mysteel China’s 45 ports was 113.7399 million tons, an increase of 635,100 tons from last week. The total port inventory has accumulated slightly for three consecutive weeks. , still the lowest value for the same period in the past three years. From a regional perspective, inventories increased in both East and South China. Among them, as the port pressure in East China has improved slightly and the overall unloading volume has increased, the inventory has increased significantly. In addition, inventories and port openings in the two regions along the Yangtze River and Northeast China have declined. This is mainly due to the approaching typhoon and the closure of some ports, which affects the berthing and unloading of ships and the pickup of goods by steel mills.
“Affected by the increase in production in Tangshan and the increased maintenance of some steel mills with low profit margins, the domestic blast furnace operating rate has declined slightly for five consecutive weeks, and the high level of molten iron production has fallen. At present, overall iron ore supply and demand are at high levels, but the margins have weakened. There is no shortage of iron ore in total, and the variety structure has also been repaired. From the perspective of valuation, the current absolute price and profit of iron ore are too high “With the weakening of finished product prices and low profits, the spot price of iron ore has basically peaked, and it is expected that the iron ore market will also mainly operate in a weak oscillation.” Qiu Yuecheng said.
Li Hairong, an iron ore researcher at Zhonghui Futures, believes that since the introduction and implementation of Tangshan’s production restriction policy, the iron ore variety structure has changed significantly, and the proportion of high-grade ore and lump ore has increased. The price of fine ore has weakened compared with the previous period, and port inventory has accumulated slightly, which has weakened the support for futures prices. At the current stage of weak iron ore prices, high futures discounts and low port availability are still powerful factors supporting prices. Pay attention to controlling risks and do not blindly chase short positions.
The OPEC+ meeting will strengthen the “cheating countries” in imposing production cuts. Will oil prices continue to rise?
On the evening of September 17th, Beijing time, the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) held a meeting. After several hours of meeting, OPEC+ issued a statement in the early morning of September 18th, Although there is no intention to further restrict supply, it emphasized that the production reduction agreement should be fully followed and supervision of “cheating countries” to compensate for previous overproduction. Affected by the positive impact of the OPEC+ meeting, WTI crude oil futures and Brent crude oil futures both closed higher.
In addition, Saudi Energy Minister Abdul Aziz called out the short sellers and warned crude oil speculators not to go against OPEC+. If necessary, OPEC+ can “actively” adjust the 2021 Cut production quotas without having to wait until the next conference.
Currently crude oil supply is lower than demand. Russian Energy Minister Novak said that the current supply is 1.5 million barrels per day less than demand by 2 million barrels per day, but the recovery rate of global crude oil demand is slowing down, and crude oil demand is expected to fully recover in the second quarter of 2021.
At the same time, OPEC+ also warned that the epidemic may continue to suppress demand. An OPEC+ technical group warned that despite early signs of economic recovery and falling oil inventories, severe epidemics in some countries could still suppress oil demand.
Dong Chao, a crude oil analyst at Shenyin & Wanguo Futures, told reporters that there are currently two reasons supporting the rise in crude oil: First, the hurricane factor. This week, under the influence of Hurricane Sally, the United States In the Gulf of Mexico, 27.48% of oil production and approximately 29.7% of natural gas production were shut down, resulting in a loss of 400,000 barrels per day of production capacity. This time, Hurricane Sally will only affect production capacity and will have no impact on refinery demand. At the same time, the number of hurricanes in the United States will increase significantly this year under the influence of La Niña, and it is expected to be the most active hurricane season since 2005. There is currently a new low pressure forming in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, which may have a continued impact on production. Second, the Federal Reserve issued a dovish signal, suggesting that it will keep interest rates unchanged until 2023. The main driving force for this round of bull market in commodities and stock markets is the continuous injection of water by central banks of various countries. The maintenance of dovish remarks this time has given crude oil bulls greater confidence. </p
