Overview:
External crude oil rebounded sharply last week, with the US crude oil 11 contract rising by 9.24% on a weekly basis to close at $41.15. The Brent oil 12 contract saw a slight weekly increase of 7.88%, closing at $43.68. External crude oil prices experienced a sharp correction in the first half of this month and have rebounded sharply in the second half of the month. The domestic SC crude oil 11 main contract rebounded less sharply than external crude oil during the week, with a weekly increase of 6.93%. The night market continued to rebound slightly by 0.58%, and the internal market was weaker than the external market since last week.
The epidemic has broken out again in many places. As of the reporting period, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States reached 6.9674 million, with more than 200,000 deaths, and the number of new cases in a single day rose again to 51,000 from 918. The epidemic situation in India, Brazil, and Russia is still not optimistic. Among them, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in India has reached 5.4 million, and the number of new cases in a single day has reached 97,800 at 91,600.
The weaving operating rate has basically remained stable for two consecutive weeks. Polyester filament yarn and bottle flakes experienced sporadic declines, and the load dropped slightly to 92% as of last Friday.
PTA:
The average spot price of PTA fell within a narrow range last week The price fluctuated, and as of last Friday it was 3,440 yuan/ton, a slight increase from the previous week. The PTA load increased significantly last week to 89.20%. The main processing difference of TA disk widened significantly to 833 at the beginning of the week, and basically narrowed during the week, reaching 782 as of last Friday. The TA spot processing gap widened sharply to 633 at the beginning of the week and then narrowed significantly during the week, reaching 572 as of last Friday. The PX-NPT spread is still fluctuating at a low level, reaching $150 as of last Friday.
Ethylene glycol:
As of September 14, East China The MEG port inventory in the main port area is approximately 1.4 million tons, a significant decrease of 87,000 tons from the previous period. According to shipping reports, from September 14 to September 20, the total arrival volume of the four major ports is expected to be 218,000 tons, which is a neutral level. Shipments from Zhangjiagang’s mainstream reservoir area rebounded significantly at the end of August and dropped again in early September. It is understood that there are currently no delays at the port. It is expected that port inventory may continue to be destocked, with a month-on-month decrease. New domestic devices may be put into production one after another from the end of the month, domestic supply will continue to rebound, overseas devices will continue to be shut down for maintenance, and port arrivals may continue to decline in the later period. Domestic and foreign supply remains differentiated.
Cost and Profit
1 Raw Material Market
1.1 Crude oil, NPT, PX
Based on cfr Japan naphtha, naphtha (cfr Japan) continued to rise last week , rising to 412.5 US dollars / ton by last Friday. External crude oil rebounded sharply last week, with the U.S. crude oil 11 contract rising by 9.24% on a weekly basis to close at $41.15. The Brent oil 12 contract saw a slight weekly increase of 7.88%, closing at $43.68. External crude oil prices experienced a sharp correction in the first half of this month and have rebounded sharply in the second half of the month. The price difference between naphtha and Brent crude oil first narrowed to US$83.25 during the week, and then widened significantly to US$95.35 last Friday. The price difference between naphtha and WTI crude oil followed a similar trend, first narrowing to US$99 during the week and then widening again last Friday. It widened to near $110. The price of PX (cfr China) fell sharply to 542 last Monday and then rose sharply during the week, rising to 562 US dollars per ton last Friday. The PX-NPT spread is still fluctuating at a low level, reaching $150 as of last Friday. The operating rates of PX Asia and China have basically remained stable this week.
2 Cost and profit changes
The average spot price of oil-based ethylene glycol fell slightly last week compared with last week. As of last Friday, it was 3,828 yuan. The average price during the week was about 3,880 yuan, which is equivalent to a coal-based contract price of about 3,680-3,730 yuan. Yuan, the chart is based on the nearby spot price – 3650 yuan/ton. The load of coal production has rebounded for five consecutive weeks, and the loss of coal-to-ethylene glycol has been significantly restored week on week. According to research, the current average coal production cost is 3700-3800, and the actual loss is less than the formula calculation. The cash flow loss of externally produced ethylene glycol has once again worsened to around -$82. Naphtha to ethylene glycol cash flow breakeven. The cash flow loss of the methanol MTO production route sharply increased to 1,258 yuan/ton last week. Except for the naphtha production route, all ethylene glycol process routes are still at a loss, with the exception of the naphtha production route, which is still at a loss. The price difference between oil and coal has narrowed significantly, and the profit from coal production has been significantly restored, triggering the continuous restart of the equipment.
Supply
1 Equipment maintenance status
From September 1, 2020, The polyester production capacity base has been revised upward to 62.05 million tons, with the addition of Yisheng Hainan’s 250,000 tons (supporting the production of polyester bottle flakes) and Nantong Hengke’s 200,000 tons (currently temporarily producing glossy slices) devices. The short fiber load increased last week, but the bottle chip device was overhauled or production was reduced, chip production was reduced, filament production was also sporadic, and the polyester comprehensive load declined. As of last Friday, preliminary calculations of domestic polyester comprehensive load were at 92%. In addition, a major mainstream factory in Shaoxing plans to reduce the production of white POY and glossy FDY on Tuesday, involving a spinning capacity of 350 tons/day.
Table 1: Recent major device changes in polyester:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
PTA domestic equipment: Yisheng Ningbo 2.2 million tons unit began to gradually reduce its load at 9.3 and is currently restarting; Sinopec Luoyang Petrochemical Plant 32.5The 10,000-ton unit stopped at 7.27 and produced products around 9.16. The current load is 60%. Mainland China’s PTA load increased significantly last Friday to 89.20% from last week.
Table 2: PTA’s recent major device changes:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
Ethylene glycol equipment: The overall load of ethylene glycol and the start-up of coal-based equipment continued to rebound significantly last week. As of September 17, the overall operating load of domestic ethylene glycol was 64.58%, of which the operating load of coal-based ethylene glycol was 51.12%. Two of Xinhang Energy’s lines have been restarted, and the remaining one is still undergoing technical renovation; the Red Sifang 300,000-ton unit has been restarted and the load is being increased.
Three sets of installations in the United States with a total of 1.32 million tons were temporarily shut down on 8.26. A 700,000-ton installation extended its shutdown time to 4-6 weeks due to the hurricane, and the other 34 The 10,000-ton unit has been restarted recently, and the restart of the third 280,000-ton unit is pending. The impact of these production reductions is expected to be reflected in arrivals one month later. A 360,000-ton unit in South Asia in the United States was shut down on September 8 due to equipment failure. It is expected to be overhauled in about a month, exacerbating the contraction of overseas supply.
Table 3: MEG’s recent major device changes:
Data source: CCF Zhongzhou Energy and Chemical Research Institute
Commissioning status of new equipment: Xinjiang Tianye’s 600,000 tons/year Shihutan project, of which 200,000 tons discharged a small amount of high-quality products; the 400,000 tons discharged last week were partially qualified Product, the device is still under debugging. Sinochem Quanzhou’s new 500,000-ton/year MEG unit is scheduled to start discharging materials at the end of this month; Shanxi Woneng Chemical Technology Co., Ltd.’s 300,000-ton/year new syngas-to-MEG unit has successfully produced polyester-grade ethylene glycol. , it is expected to be able to run at a higher load this week. The new 500,000-ton unit of Zhongke Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. has currently completed its reverse operation. It plans to start up the ethylene cracking ease near this weekend, and it is expected to have product output by the end of the month. New device output may be concentrated in October.
2PTA Inventory
PTA Conversion Society The total inventory has been declining for four consecutive weeks. PTA warehouse receipts were forced to be canceled last week – the warehouse receipts dropped sharply to around 0, and may be re-registered later. The PTA factory inventory has rebounded sharply, and the polyester factory raw material inventory has declined slightly month-on-month. The TA inventory converted from ester finished product inventory rebounded slightly.
3 Ethylene glycol import and port inventory
As of September 14, the MEG port inventory in the main port area of East China was approximately 1.4 million tons, a significant decrease of 87,000 tons from the previous period. According to shipping reports, from September 14 to September 20, the total arrival volume of the four major ports is expected to be 218,000 tons, which is a neutral level. Shipments from Zhangjiagang’s mainstream reservoir area rebounded significantly at the end of August and dropped again in early September. It is understood that there are currently no delays at the port. It is expected that port inventory may continue to be destocked, with a month-on-month decrease.
Requirements
1 Polyester
1.1 Polyester operating rate and equipment changes
Starting from September, Polyester production capacity is adjusted to 62.05 million tons/year. As of last Friday, the polyester load dropped slightly to 92%, and is expected to continue to decline. It is the second highest level only lower than the same period in 2019. Among them, the load of polyester filament remained stable at 75.90% compared with the previous week; the load of polyester bottle flakes fell by 1.1% to 82.60%, and the operating rate of direct spinning polyester staple increased by 1.4% to 99.30%, the highest level in history. The operating rate of polyester filament yarn is only higher than the second-lowest level in the same period in the past year in 2018; the operating rate of polyester bottle flakes is still only lower than the second-highest level in the same period in the past year in 2017.
1.2 Polyester inventory
As of Last Friday, the equity inventories of POY, FDY and DTY in Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester factories were 19.4, 20.6 and 28.7 days respectively. Filament inventories have declined except for POY. Among them, FDY inventories have decreased slightly by 0.5 days from last Friday, DTY inventories have decreased by 1.2 days from last Friday; POY inventories have increased slightly by 0.4 days from last Friday. Polyester staple fiber inventory increased slightly last week by 0.9 days to 6.3 days from the previous week (polyester staple load increased significantly, and the profit was the best among polyester products). Last week, the overall shipments from polyester bottle flake factories were not good, and the average inventory in stock rose to 30 days or slightly above. The inventory of polyester staple fiber is at the equilibrium level for the same period in the past; the inventory of polyester filament and polyester bottle flakes both maintain the highest level for the same period in the past.
2 Terminal situation
Last week The operating rates of looms and texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained stable. As of now, the operating rates of looms and texturing are still 76% and 80% respectively.
The inventory days of gray fabrics in sample weaving enterprises in Shengze area have continued to rise since 5.25, reaching a maximum of 45.5 days and currently falling to 44 days. The peak season turning point may have appeared. The extent of destocking is expected to be limited in the future. The average monthly transaction volume of China Textile City in July was 8% higher than the same period last year. It fell sharply in August, 31% lower than last year. There may not be a clear distinction between off-peak and peak seasons this year, and at least we haven’t seen peak season performance yet.
362012.jpg”>
The inventory days of gray fabrics in sample weaving enterprises in Shengze area have continued to rise since 5.25, reaching a maximum of 45.5 days and currently falling to 44 days. The turning point in the peak season may have appeared, and in the later period The extent of destocking is expected to be limited. The average monthly transaction volume of China Textile City in July was 8% higher than the same period last year. It fell sharply in August, 31% lower than last year. There may not be an obvious distinction between off-peak and peak seasons this year, at least not yet. Peak season performance.</p
