Yesterday, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced that it had approved the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange to carry out short fiber futures trading. Short fiber futures will be officially listed for trading on October 12, 2020. As soon as this news came out, people in the polyester market were very excited.
Fourteen years after the listing of PTA futures, the “twin eldest sons” short fiber futures are finally ushered in. Coincidentally, just yesterday, an analyst training on short fiber futures was in full swing in Shanghai to prepare for the launch of the product. When they learned that short fiber futures had been approved, PTA researchers who participated in the training said that their worries were finally settled and the responsibilities on their shoulders became heavier. We believe that “like mother, like son”, PTA “sons” will also be outstanding when they grow up.
In fact, for short fiber futures, polyester industry chain companies are highly anticipated. Staple fiber is an important textile raw material. my country is a major producer and consumer of short fiber. Carrying out relevant futures trading will provide industrial enterprises with open, continuous and transparent price signals and effective risk management tools, which will help promote the stable operation of relevant enterprises and promote the stable and healthy development of the short fiber industry. It is time to improve the polyester sector and help my country’s polyester industry develop steadily and sustainably.
Short fiber is a key link in the polyester industry chain
It is understood that short fiber is an important chemical fiber whose main component is purified terephthalic acid (PTA) Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) synthesized from ethylene glycol (MEG). Since staple fiber entered my country in the 1970s, its market size has developed rapidly due to its wide range of uses and low price, and it has become an important raw material in textile, clothing, home textile and other industries.
According to different classification standards, staple fibers can be divided into different specifications. For example, according to the classification of production raw materials, polyester staple fiber is divided into virgin staple fiber and recycled staple fiber. Primary staple fiber uses PTA and ethylene glycol as raw materials, while recycled short fiber uses recycled polyester bottle flakes as raw materials. The degree of standardization is low and it is mainly used as filler.
From the perspective of product specifications, 1.56dtex semi-optical short fiber accounts for about 47.2%, which is the largest output variety of short fibers, 1.33dtex semi-optical and other differentiated products account for 15.8%, and 1.33dtex optical fiber Short fiber accounts for 12%, and other single specifications account for a lower proportion.
According to different uses, staple fibers are mainly divided into three categories: spinning and thread making, filling and non-woven. Among them, spinning and thread making is the most important use of short fiber, including cotton spinning and wool spinning. Cotton spinning uses a large amount, mainly including polyester pure spinning, polyester-cotton blended spinning, polyester-viscose blended spinning and the production of polyester staple fiber sewing thread. Wool spinning mainly includes polyester-nitrile, polyester-wool blended fabrics and blanket making. The filling is mainly short fiber in the form of filler, which is used as home decoration filling material and clothing thermal insulation material. Such short fiber is mostly hollow polyester staple fiber. In addition, nonwovens are an extension of the use of short fibers and have developed rapidly in recent years. It is widely used. For example, spunlace non-woven fabrics are mainly used in wet wipes, medical and other fields, while geotextiles, leather-based fabrics, linoleum-based fabrics, etc. are mainly used in engineering fields.
“As an important raw material for the textile industry, the downstream of short fiber is mainly the clothing and home textile industries.” Huarui Information personnel said that with the continuous improvement of the living standards of our country’s residents, the demand for clothing and home textiles has also increased. Gradually expanding, short fiber consumption is increasing year by year. In 2019, the apparent domestic short fiber consumption reached 5.454 million tons, of which spinning consumption accounted for 75.2%, and the total consumption in the non-woven fabrics and filling fields accounted for 24.8%.
According to the above personnel, domestic short fiber consumption has maintained a growth trend from 2015 to 2019. Among them, domestic primary staple fiber consumption grew rapidly in 2016; the growth rate returned to a low level in 2017 and 2018; domestic primary staple fiber consumption in 2019 was 5.45 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, and consumption increased The speed has hit a new high in recent years. Spinning is the largest consumer area of short fiber. In 2019, the consumption of spinning staple fiber increased to 4.1 million tons, a growth rate of 11.72%, and the demand side of spinning staple fiber increased significantly.
The major short fiber producing country is mainly export trade
From the perspective of production capacity, China is a major short fiber producing country, mainly export trade. The import dependence is only 1%-2%, and the export dependence is about 10%. The export destinations mainly include Southeast Asia and the United States.
It is understood that China is the largest short fiber producer in the world. In 2019, the short fiber production capacity was 7.585 million tons and the output was 6.15 million tons.
Since 2014, with the continuous decline of crude oil prices, the price of primary staple fiber has declined. Compared with cotton, recycled staple fiber and other textile raw materials, its cost-effective advantage has been enhanced, which has promoted the steady growth of short fiber production capacity and output. increase.
In recent years, domestic short fiber production capacity and output have continued to grow. From a regional perspective, short fiber production capacity is mainly distributed in eastern coastal provinces such as Jiangsu, Fujian, and Zhejiang. Jiangsu, Fujian and Zhejiang account for 84% of the production capacity. The three regions have large capacity. On the one hand, this is due to the abundant production capacity of local raw material PTA. On the other hand, these areas have the advantages of high development level, convenient transportation, easy export, and proximity to downstream consumer markets.
As short fiber production capacity increases year by year, the overall supply in the domestic market exceeds demand, and manufacturing companies are actively seeking foreign markets to digest their own output. In recent years, Southeast Asia has been actively developing the textile industry by virtue of its cheap labor advantage. The demand for textile materials such as short fibers has continued to grow, and it has become an important market for the expansion of domestic short fiber exports. However, the export of short fiber faces greater anti-dumping pressure.
“The impact of international trade relations on exports is an important factor in market research. Not only that, Sino-US relations, etc.Changes in the international trade situation not only affect the export of short fiber, but also affect the end demand of short fiber and the export of textile and apparel markets. In addition, textile and apparel production and export trade in Southeast Asia have grown rapidly in recent years, and its industry development is also worthy of attention. “Industry insiders said.
Among them, trade friction is one of the important reasons for export obstacles. Currently, the countries that have implemented anti-dumping on China’s short fiber include the United States, Pakistan, India, Turkey, Mexico and South Africa. Mainly The anti-dumping situation of exporting countries will also have a greater impact on the export volume of short fiber.
In addition, the global macroeconomic situation also deserves continued attention. Similarly, domestic macroeconomic policies also have an impact on the industry. There is a trend influence.
It is time for the market to call for the improvement of the polyester sector
In recent years, affected by multiple factors such as macroeconomic policies, raw material costs, and its own supply and demand, short fiber prices have Fluctuations are more frequent. Especially this year, due to the decline in crude oil prices and the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on downstream demand, the price of short fiber has continued to fall, falling to around 5,000 yuan/ton.
“With the continuous increase in domestic labor costs With the rise in demand and the impact of international frictions, production factories may move to Southeast Asia, and trade will also change accordingly. The continuous expansion of domestic production capacity will inevitably impact overseas markets. “Liu Dewei, the relevant person in charge of the International Trade Chemical Industry Center, said that while the short fiber spot market is developing, there are also certain risks. The market is increasingly calling for listed short fiber futures to provide companies with hedging tools.
“As a short fiber manufacturer, we have been looking forward to short fiber futures for a long time. “The relevant person in charge of a chemical fiber company in Fujian said that the listing of short fiber futures has made the lengthy industrial chain more complete, which will help companies conduct production and operations more directly and better, and avoid market risks.
In Ju In the ester industry chain, companies are no strangers to futures tools. The PTA market has been operating for many years, with high market participation and strong acceptance of futures by upstream and downstream companies.
“The main varieties currently available in the industry chain PTA and MEG, as far as related manufacturing companies are concerned, can sell and hedge when the market conditions are poor, inventory is high or sales are poor, transferring market pressure to far-month selling, alleviating the problem of high inventory, and at the same time Sales target. As for downstream polyester manufacturers, for their raw materials, they mainly lock in the cost of raw materials when their own processing fees are good, and conduct inventory management by buying and maintaining value when sales are good, so as to reduce capital occupation and preserve processing fees. “Hongye Futures analyst Zhang Yongge said.
Cinda Futures analyst Han Bingbing believes that the listing of short fiber futures will provide the necessary conditions for futures arbitrage between short fiber, PTA and ethylene glycol. Tools. Investors’ active participation in industrial chain arbitrage can help maintain a balance between upstream and downstream profits in the industry, promote the healthy and stable development of upstream and downstream enterprises, and also provide necessary liquidity for hedging of related enterprises.
“With the widespread application of PTA and MEG futures tools, and the listing of short fiber futures in the future, the model of combining futures and cash will become more and more common. The integration of short fiber and financial instruments will be closer, and the formula pricing and spot pricing models will not be too far away. ” Liu Dewei said.</p
