Is La Niña coming? Another country’s “bright blue light” warning indicates the possibility of La Niña!
The National Climate Center predicts that a La Niña event will form this winter.
Will it be a cold winter this year?
La Niña event refers to a cold water phenomenon in which sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean appear to be cold in a large area, and the intensity and duration reach certain conditions.
In August 2020, the sea surface temperature in most of the equatorial central and eastern Pacific was lower than the same period in normal years. The monitoring index of the key sea temperature area (Niño3.4 area) was -0.6℃, a decrease of 0.3 from July. °C; from September 1 to 20, the sea temperature in the Niño 3.4 area fluctuated and dropped, with the monitoring index lower than -0.5°C, indicating that the equatorial central and eastern Pacific has entered a La Niña state.
Since September, cold water has continued to develop below the surface in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, and the lower troposphere has continued to be controlled by abnormal easterly winds, which is conducive to the further development of cold sea temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific.
Figure 1 Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the key area for sea surface temperature monitoring in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (Niño3.4 area) SST index (℃ )
Figure 2 Sea surface temperature anomaly distribution map in August 2020
Comprehensive analysis of recent equatorial Based on the actual monitoring of ocean and atmospheric circulation in the Pacific, combined with predictions from domestic and foreign climate models, it is expected that cold water in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific will continue to develop in October, maintain La Niña conditions in autumn, and reach a peak in winter, forming a weak to moderate La Niña event.
Figure 3 Composite map of average winter temperature anomalies for the five La Niña events since 2000
Among them, affected by the 2007/2008 The impact of this La Nina event was that from January 10 to February 2, 2008, our country was hit by four low-temperature rain, snow, and freezing weather processes.
However, in the context of global warming, the factors affecting my country’s winter climate are more complex. In addition to the impact of La Niña events from the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, there are also melting Arctic sea ice, Eurasian accumulation and The influence of snow changes and other factors.
What impact will La Nina events have on the textile industry?
From this year’s Spring Festival to now, whether the market has really improved has been a “sudden surprise”. It is difficult to make profits from the cold winter to a large extent. Supplies to terminals that have been overwhelmed by inventory, dealers are still unable to pick up goods due to tight capital chains. In addition, it is difficult to predict how much goods should be prepared, so the favorable weather may not be fully converted into opportunities.
Whether it can bottom out depends on whether the cold winter weather can continue to be strong. If it can, it will greatly promote the sales of inventory and new products, giving manufacturers the opportunity to withdraw funds and get a chance to breathe. Secondly, it depends on whether the foreign epidemic can be controlled. If the foreign epidemic is effectively controlled, clothing will receive direct long-term benefits. This is the real driving force for the clothing industry to turn around.
It is still difficult to judge whether this cold winter will be a flash in the pan or whether it will help the entire clothing industry rebound from the bottom. But for winter, more people tend to buy clothes. Especially at the end of the year, many clothes are on sale. The winter clothing market will drive a wave of fabric sales. Clothing manufacturers can prepare some goods appropriately to seize this opportunity. Opportunity, leverage to break through.
The editor will continue to pay attention to the next market situation. I hope that all textile bosses will not lose confidence and work hard in the last quarter of 2020 to have a good year!
What do you think of this sudden cold winter? </p
