Although President Trump “dramatically” contracted COVID-19 during the National Day holiday and miraculously recovered and was discharged from the hospital within three days; despite the fact that the U.S. stock market and financial markets experienced two shocks in just over a week, with the market “slumping and rising” ; Although the 2020/21 U.S. upland cotton contracted exports and shipments both declined last week, ICE cotton futures continued to rise like chicken blood. The main contract not only exceeded 66 cents/pound again, but also reached the previous two highs of 66.45 cents. cents/pound and 66.93 cents/pound did not form resistance at all (short sellers voluntarily gave up and retreated). The intraday high once broke through the 68 cents/pound mark (68.29 cents/pound), testing the target of 70 cents/pound. , the trend remains unchanged. Within a week, ICE rose by 5.29%, which is not a small amount. Moreover, it continued to win despite the fact that the external market, news, and fundamentals were not “powerful”. The focus of the main contract recovered and stood at 66 cents/pound. .
Why is ICE “rising” despite the lack of Zheng cotton resonance and the lack of large-scale contract purchases from China? Some foreign businessmen and domestic cotton-related enterprises and institutions summarized the following points:
First, during the National Day, the international agricultural products market was “turbulent” with red flags everywhere, and cotton futures were just “coercing” the decline and rise. According to statistics, from September 30 to October 8, global corn, soybeans, wheat, soybean meal and other agricultural products increased by 7.16%, 6.42%, 10.51%, and 9.54% respectively, and rubber also increased by 4.17%; secondly, Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil increased by 2.21% and 2.54% respectively. Under the pull of the “One Black” first launch, the “One White” responded positively; third, the adverse weather factors in the main cotton-producing areas of the United States continued to ferment and the 2020/21 US cotton The lagging progress of picking supports the rise of ICE, which is easy to rise but difficult to fall. Buyers including China, Pakistan, Vietnam and other countries are increasingly worried about the quality, grade and ability of U.S. cotton to be loaded and delivered on time this year; fourth, the Federal Reserve’s continued loose monetary policy, the U.S. government’s fiscal Stimulus package accelerates commodity inflation expectations. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell warned on Tuesday that the U.S. economic outlook is “highly uncertain” and that too little policy support may cause more households and businesses to go bankrupt and trigger “recession momentum.” Therefore, the industry has two major predictions for the minutes of the September Federal Reserve meeting. Points: Expanding willingness to ease and letting inflation rise; In addition, U.S. President Trump said on Thursday that negotiations between the government and Congress on fiscal stimulus measures have restarted and there is a chance to reach an agreement; fifth, the first phase of the China-U.S. trade agreement The orderly progress and the faster-than-expected recovery of cotton consumption demand in Southeast Asia, Turkey, South America and other countries also give ICE more confidence to rise. </p
