Introduction: During the National Day holiday, the domestic polyester bottle flake market is basically closed. Yesterday, the market began to resume sporadic negotiations, and prices maintained their pre-holiday quotations.
Market: During the National Day holiday, international crude oil first declined and then rose, with the overall price rising compared with before the holiday. In the early days, the epidemic continued to worsen in Europe and the United States, and the U.S. President’s diagnosis heightened bearish sentiment on the economy and demand. In addition, the U.S. non-farm payrolls in September fell short of expectations, and international oil prices continued to plummet. In the mid-to-late period, Norwegian oil workers are on strike, and the US fiscal stimulus plan is still expected to be reached. Subsequently, due to the impact of the hurricane, oil producers shut down offshore drilling platforms in advance, and the United States may impose new sanctions on Iran, causing international oil prices to rebound sharply. Stimulated by crude oil, the cost-end PTA opened high and moved low. Most of the quotations of polyester bottle flake factories were stable, and a few lowered their quotations by 50-150 yuan/ton. Holders are operating cautiously, and the price of just-replenished goods has risen narrowly to 4,775 yuan/ton compared with before the holiday. Most negotiations are around 4,750 yuan/ton, and some are at 4,730 yuan/ton. The low-end supply is 4,700 yuan/ton, and immediate delivery is required. Affected by the rise in crude oil, the inquiry atmosphere was slightly better than before the holiday, and the overall transaction performance was mediocre.
Supply: After an 8-day long holiday, the inventory pressure of polyester bottle flake factories increased. Among them, Zhejiang Wankai’s 550,000-ton bottle flakes unit was shut down for maintenance on October 5, which is expected to last about a month. The daily output of bottle flakes decreased by 1,238 tons compared with before the holiday; the start-up of the bottle flake industry fell by 3.41 percentage points from before the holiday to 79.44%. Under the pressure of accumulated inventory in some factories, they shipped goods at low prices, but negotiations for new orders were not ideal. Compared with other polyester products, the overall volume and price are weak.
Demand: Domestic terminal consumer market, according to information provided by the data center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the country received a total of 42.089 million domestic tourists in the first 7 days of the National Day holiday, a year-on-year recovery of 82.6%; in the first 7 days On the same day, the country received a total of 618 million domestic tourists, a year-on-year recovery of 79.0%; however, China’s tourism industry recovered nearly 80% of its visitors and nearly 70% of its revenue year-on-year. The recovery of tourist numbers is undoubtedly a positive factor for soft drink consumption. However, the sudden cold weather has greatly dragged down the consumption of soft drinks.
To sum up, the new PTA device at the raw material end is expected to be put into production in the near future, and the high inventory status continues. The production reduction of polyester bottle flake factories is less than expected. Only Sinopec plans to overhaul its 150,000-ton unit in the middle of this month. The maintenance plans of other manufacturers have not yet been determined. The demand side is sluggish and the social inventory of bottle flakes is high. It is expected that the bottle flakes market will continue to run at a low level in October. Follow-up attention will be paid to changes in the start-up of the bottle flakes industry and the situation of overseas epidemic control. </p
