After the National Day, Zheng cotton futures surged like a rainbow. Today’s main futures contract CF2101 is close to the 14,000 yuan/ton mark, up more than 1,000 points from before the holiday. Such a rapid and strong rise has ignited concerns among all parties in the cotton industry. Bullish enthusiasm. Commercial enterprises directly stated that the pace of increase in spot prices has been unable to keep up with the trend of futures, and some enterprises have begun to show reluctance to sell and stop reporting. The purchase price of new cotton even changed three times a day, and the market atmosphere was extremely enthusiastic.
1. The price of new cotton has continued to rise, and the cost of lint has been forced to rise
Futures prices have risen rapidly, and the most obvious impact is on the new cotton currently on the market. cotton. According to a survey of ginning companies and cotton farmers in Xinjiang, the recent highs of machine-picked cotton and hand-picked cotton have exceeded 6.5 yuan/kg and 7.5 yuan/kg. Some ginning companies even raised and updated their purchase prices three times a day. As the price of seed cotton rises, the cost of lint continues to rise. According to rough estimates, the current cost of machine-picked cotton in Xinjiang is already 14,200-14,700 yuan/ton, and the cost for outsourced production companies is even higher. Cotton enterprises in Xinjiang are rushing to harvest, and there are many more cotton dealers buying cross-region than last year. The machine-picked cotton in northern Xinjiang still maintains a fast picking and harvesting rhythm. It is expected that the remaining amount will be less than 10% by the end of this month. Recently, Zheng cotton has appeared The rising trend is bound to intensify the willingness of cotton companies to stock up.
2. The focus of spot prices has shifted upward, and cotton companies are reluctant to sell and wait and see
Zheng cotton has risen at a fast pace, and the spot price of lint has also risen accordingly. Some of the 2019 Xinjiang cotton self-pickup prices have risen to 13,800-14,100 yuan/ton. The short-term procurement of downstream textile enterprises is still dominated by old cotton, followed by foreign cotton and new cotton. Because the quotation of new cotton is relatively high and the price/performance ratio is insufficient, it is currently difficult for the downstream to accept it. Some Indian cotton and Brazilian cotton with higher cost performance are more popular. According to feedback from a company in Qingdao, shipments from warehouses in various places have increased significantly after the holiday. Some companies at the port have stopped quoting and are waiting for the increase to ease before concentrating on shipments. Although there is a risk of a rebound in the later period, most market participants believe that the short-term correction space is very limited, and the mid-term outlook is still bullish.
3. Raw materials have soared, boosting gauze price increases
As cotton prices rise, gauze mills and cloth mills must not only cater to the cost In order to move, we must also realize the opportunity to expand profit margins, and increasing the price of finished products has become an inevitable result. According to a survey of some spinning companies, cotton yarn prices have also been raised on a large scale and frequently. Recently, the cumulative increase in cotton yarn per ton has reached more than 1,000 yuan. Enterprises are more confident in raising prices than before, which has caused gray fabrics to also increase prices. .
Recently, downstream orders have increased, textile enterprises’ consumption has improved, and upstream harvests have continued, and the upward transmission of cotton prices has been smoother than in the previous period. However, whether the increase can be sustained still faces many factors such as Sino-US trade relations, changes in the epidemic, etc. Uncertainties. Therefore, it is recommended that cotton companies should not blindly chase higher prices and ship on higher prices in a timely manner in order to be safe. In addition, short fiber futures, which are textile raw materials, were officially launched today and were closed to the daily limit shortly after the market opened today, which may bring certain support to the cotton market in the short term. </p
