On October 12, 2020, the short fiber futures trading contract of Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange was officially launched. This is another new futures product in the polyester industry chain after the launch of PTA, ethylene glycol and other polyester raw material products.
The main short fiber contract hit the daily limit at the opening of the day, with an increase of 8%, and the price was 5832 yuan/ton. Analysts said that during the holidays, boosted by the transfer of some terminal orders in India and the rise in viscose and cotton prices, downstream yarn companies shipped better and prices also rose, driving them to focus on covering positions in polyester staple fiber, coupled with the approaching futures listing. , the entry of some new traders has also driven companies to significantly destock. At present, the inventories of short fiber companies are generally low, and some are even oversold.
The upstream of short fiber is an important branch product of polyester (polyethylene terephthalate, referred to as PET). Its upstream raw materials are PTA and ethylene glycol (1 ton of short fiber consumes 0.86 tons of PTA and 0.34 tons of ethylene glycol), and the downstream is mainly the weaving industry, of which the direct downstream is the yarn industry. Among the spinning raw materials, short fiber and Cotton and viscose fiber are substitutes. Both PTA and ethylene glycol are listed futures varieties. As their direct downstream, the listing of short fiber futures will enrich the hedging and investment strategies of the polyester industry chain.
Short fiber can be divided into different categories according to different raw materials, thickness, cross-section, gloss, and use. Among them, the benchmark delivery product of short fiber futures is semi-gloss for native spinning. 1.4D staple fiber is the category with the largest market share of staple fiber, accounting for approximately 49%.
As of 2019, the short fiber production capacity is 7.59 million tons, the output is 6.1 million tons, the apparent consumption is 6.88 million tons, and the consumption is growing steadily. In 2019, domestic production growth rate was 13.6%, and production capacity growth rate was 7.6%. The production growth rate is higher than the production capacity growth rate. However, this year is a big year for the expansion of PTA and EG production, and the growth rate is significantly faster than that of polyester. From the perspective of the production capacity cycle pattern , profit distribution benefits downstream.
In the production capacity distribution of direct-spun polyester shorts, the top three provinces in terms of production capacity are Jiangsu, Fujian and Zhejiang. Jiangsu Province has the largest production capacity, accounting for more than half of the domestic production capacity. Fujian accounts for 18% and Zhejiang accounts for 11%. The market share of these three production areas has reached 84% of the total domestic direct-spun polyester staple production capacity. about.
From the perspective of production capacity concentration, production capacity is relatively concentrated. The top four suppliers account for more than 50% of the main production capacity. At present, the largest domestic production capacity is Sinopec (including Tianjin Petrochemical, Shanghai Petrochemical, Luoyang Petrochemical and Yizheng Chemical Fiber, etc.), with a production capacity of 131, followed by Hengyi (Yida, Hengming, Gaoxin and Yijin) with 1.11 million tons, and the third is Sanfang Lane, the fourth is Huahong.
From the perspective of where the downstream demand is mainly concentrated, the downstream demand for short fiber is mainly concentrated in Jiangsu, Fujian and Zhejiang; trade logistics is from east to west, from the coast to the inland, North-south direction. Jiangsu’s short fiber mainly flows to Shandong, Hebei, Anhui and other places; Zhejiang’s short fiber mainly flows to Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei and other places; Fujian’s short fiber mainly flows to Jiangxi, Hubei, Guangdong and other places. The markets in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Fujian are interconnected, and there is a phenomenon of cross-purchasing.
At present, the new short fiber production capacity is expected to be 415,000 tons this year, and the new production capacity growth rate is 5.4%, which is lower than the average growth rate of polyester. Since 2020, the demand for textile and apparel has been greatly affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, but short fiber has maintained a high operating rate. At the same time, the sharp drop in crude oil since the COVID-19 epidemic has caused the cost of short fiber to collapse, and short fiber has followed suit. However, the price decline of cotton, recycled fiber, etc. has been relatively small, and the cost performance of short fiber has begun to become prominent. The current price difference between short fiber and cotton, and the price difference between pure polyester yarn and imitation yarn are all within the relatively extreme range in history. The market share of short fiber in spinning raw materials may further increase. At the same time, short fiber is better than polyester filament. There are two main reasons. First, primary short fiber has a substitution effect on recycled short fiber after the cost plummeted. Second, short fiber has been widely used in the production of epidemic prevention materials this year. In addition, for the historic At low prices, there is a certain amount of speculative demand in society.
Since September, it has gradually increased to close to full capacity. Compared with the early high inventory of filament, short fiber inventory has been at a low level, and some companies have Oversold phenomenon. Downstream weaving is currently in its peak season, and short fiber supply and demand are expected to remain tight in the fourth quarter.
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