According to customs statistics, my country’s textile and clothing exports improved across the board in September. Textile and clothing exports were US$28.37 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%; of which textile exports were US$13.15 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.8%, and clothing exports were US$15.22 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. %.
The domestic epidemic has been effectively controlled, Against the background of the out-of-control epidemic in some countries such as India, Pakistan, and South America, which has led to the return of European and American orders and the difficult recovery of the global economy and consumption, China’s textile and clothing exports have finally ushered in “retaliatory” growth. The “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” not only arrived as scheduled, but also The rebound in foreign trade orders and the enthusiasm of foreign brands and retailers for placing orders have exceeded the expectations of most domestic textile and apparel companies.
Some garment companies in Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang even stated that orders have grown rapidly since mid-September, and the ordering period has been extended to mid-November. During the National Day, the machines are operating at full capacity. Workers basically don’t have any holidays.
“Closing the market without quoting” appears again: the upstream raises prices while the downstream pays for the expected increase in raw material prices!
Some cotton/cotton yarn traders, while encouraging their peers to “close the market without quoting”, are quietly selling their stocks of cotton and cotton yarn, and the volume is not small. .
While doing research in a cotton spinning factory, I saw large cotton merchants and foreign cotton merchants actively selling cotton ( Large cotton merchants all have a contractual spirit and are focused on maintaining long-term relationships with customers, while small cotton merchants can only hehe). The recent rapid sales of imported cotton in the bonded area illustrates this problem. Have you seen the movie “Sparkling Red Star”? The evil rice store owner puts up a sign saying “No rice today”. In fact, the rice store owner still has a lot of “rice” in his warehouse and on the dock, but he just wants to raise the price. , just for sale.
Downstream cotton spinning mills and weaving mills are ready, upstream raw materials People who are good at commerce will depend on each other. Through cotton spinning factories, we learned that if the price of raw materials continues to rise, then spinning factories will face the embarrassing situation of “losing a thousand yuan for spinning one ton of yarn.” In the long run, some bosses can only close part of the production workshops. In order to “reduce losses”, it will also affect cotton consumption accordingly.
Also, there has been an increase in “contract breaches” in cotton transactions recently. For the price difference of a few tens of yuan or one to two hundred, individual cotton merchants have breached the contract. Frankly speaking, today If you “break the contract” and don’t sell, when cotton prices fall in the near future, it will be difficult to come back to the lost market and customers. In the information society, the Internet is developed, and everyone knows about the “breacher” in less than ten minutes.
In the recent environment, cotton spinning mills have increased their willingness to purchase raw materials. Several large cotton spinning mills have come into contact with The number of raw material inventories has increased from 20 days to 35 days. In some cases, in order to ensure the stability and consistency of cotton yarn quality, the raw material inventory has increased to about 45 days. The editor also learned that this phenomenon also occurs in the polyester industry.
The National Day has become the “Spring Festival”, and there are hidden worries about purchasing power in the future under the “retaliatory rebound”
Recently, the main reasons for the rise in market prices are:
First, the “Double 11”, Thanksgiving, and Christmas orders have arrived in “crowds”; coupled with the suppressed orders in the first half of 2020 , the weakened consumer enthusiasm has been released, and it is not surprising that textile and clothing exports have “jumped”;
Second, some foreign buyers and retailers are worried about the new crown pneumonia epidemic in Europe, the United States, and Southeast Asia in autumn and winter. With the second outbreak of the epidemic, local governments in various countries have escalated epidemic prevention and control again, which has affected trade, transportation, production, etc. Therefore, orders are placed in advance and stocking up on textiles and clothing for sale (online business in Europe and the United States is also booming);
Third, compared with textile and apparel companies in India, Pakistan, Vietnam and other countries, Chinese manufacturers have “small orders and quick turnaround”; their ability to quickly design, process, transport and deliver is much ahead of Southeast Asia, South America and other countries. With our counterparts in other countries, under the premise of great uncertainty about the epidemic, high geopolitical risks, and relatively large fluctuations in crude oil and raw materials, the phenomenon of “large supply, long cycle” of foreign trade orders is gone forever. At present, only the industrial chain Chinese textile and clothing companies with complete supporting facilities, mature worker skills, and strong delivery capabilities can meet the requirements of foreign buyers and retailers;
Fourthly, some American brand companies and traders are worried that 11 After September, the U.S. government implemented a broad import ban on Xinjiang cotton products, which had an impact on the cost, quantity, and quality of textile and clothing imports. Therefore, in September and October, orders were placed to Chinese suppliers and processing companies as soon as possible, and they were required to do so before late November. Order and ship.
However, enterprises also have worries about the future. The main manifestations are In the following points:
1. The current downstream recovery is a “retaliatory rebound” that has been suppressed for a long time. “Purchasing power” needs to be released. For example, the Chinese celebrate this National Day as the “Spring Festival”.
2. The current phenomenon of downstream grabbing raw materials may be a statistical “survivor bias” phenomenon. Many media reports say “Companies with full orders…” Companies that survived on the basis of the closure of some other companies in the early stage, think about it, four out of ten companies closed down. Of course, the business of the companies that “survived” is “hot”. If you look at the entire year of 2020, the orders The amount is less than 80% of the consumption in the same period in 2019. In the future, the new crown epidemic will exist for a long time, and the impact on the economy cannot be ignored. The recurrence of global epidemics is a big challenge to textile consumption.
3. Among textile and clothing exports in September, the export and shipment growth rate of chemical fiber and blended products was higher than that of cotton textiles. Products, the export situation to ASEAN, the Middle East and Africa and other countries and regions is significantly better than that to the European and American markets; the growth rate of mid-to-high-end textile and apparel exports in quantity and value also lags behind that of low-end products, so the “retaliatory” export growth is driven by foreign trade Corporate profits are not high, down year-on-year, and even “making money at a loss”.
An export-oriented company in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province said that on the one hand, raw materials such as cotton, polyester staple fiber, and viscose staple fiber have recently The sharp increases in prices have led to a boom in yarn, gray fabrics, fabrics and other links. The meager profits of export orders received in August/September have been swallowed up, and you will face losses whether you execute the contract or not. On the other hand, Since June, the RMB has appreciated sharply against the US dollar (the cumulative appreciation so far has exceeded 6%). On October 9, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has increased by more than 1,100 points. The current onshore and offshore exchange rates have both risen above the 6.70 mark. Hitting a new high in 17 months, not only has the pressure to deliver early orders increased, but there is also great uncertainty in receiving external orders in December and January.
In the past few days, the happiest traders are not the traders who “hold back the market and don’t buy” or “raise prices”, but those who “sell at the same price” and quietly get rid of inventory and “carry clear” Traders. They have sold raw materials and kept the market. Therefore, it is recommended that you sell as soon as you have the goods and don’t bet on the future. If you “close the market without quoting” at the moment, when the raw materials fall back, the textile mills will probably treat you the same way.</p
