Introduction: Recently, the PTA market has been stimulated by positive sentiment and a rebound in downstream terminal orders, and futures and spot prices have increased slightly. The polyester market is prosperous, but the social inventory pressure on PTA cannot be relieved in the short term. In addition, the pressure to increase the polyester load is still high, which will inhibit the excessive climbing space of PTA to a certain extent. Of course, we still need to pay attention to the continuity of orders from downstream terminals in the near future.
Supply side: The PTA market has risen slightly recently, and prices have fluctuated upwards. From a cost perspective, the telephone conversation between Saudi Arabia and Russia reiterated that OPEC+ will resolutely implement the joint production reduction agreement. International oil prices continue to rise, but news of setbacks in vaccine research and development in overseas countries has suppressed the increase. The contradiction between PX supply and demand still exists, resulting in limited repairs of PX processing differences, so the cost The end maintains a volatile pattern.
Supply and demand side: During the National Day holiday, Zhuhai BP’s 1.25 million ton unit restarted, Xinjiang Zhongtai’s 1.2 million ton unit was shut down for maintenance as expected, and Yizheng Chemical Fiber’s 650,000 ton unit was shut down as expected. Overall, PTA output dropped slightly from last week. As of October 15, the price of PTA was 3,390 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.28% month-on-month.
Demand side: Chemical commodities rebounded collectively in October, with optimistic terminal demand. In addition, the strong polyester end drove a rebound in raw materials. The overall demand-side performance is relatively strong. As of October 15, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 81.20%, an increase of 8.47 percentage points from the previous month.
Recently, orders for winter cold-proof clothing fabrics have been booming. On the one hand, the cold winter trend is likely to hit this year, resulting in regular winter cold-proof and velvet fabrics being in short supply. On the other hand, in terms of domestic sales, the Double Eleven National Shopping Festival is approaching. Online, live broadcast, and various sales platforms have seized the sales peak this time, especially cold-resistant clothing, and have set off a sales boom.
Most downstream factories are confident that orders will last until mid-November, and procurement funds are relatively abundant. It is expected that the operating rate of the weaving industry will remain strong in a short period of time. In terms of polyester, the National Day holiday was boosted by the improvement in terminal demand and the decline in inventory of polyester factories. Some early production cuts and maintenance factories increased their loads, such as Haixin. In addition, Hengchao’s new equipment was put into operation during the week, and domestic polyester output continued to increase. However, some bottle flake devices are also undergoing maintenance, which has restricted the increase in polyester output.
View from the market outlook:
In fact, from the cost side, first of all, crude oil currently lacks the motivation to continue to rise or fall, and The current processing fee of PX has fallen to a low point. It is difficult to repair the trend of PX processing fee in the short term, and the cost-side is still expected to fluctuate.
Secondly, demand-side terminal orders have indeed improved, but the sustainability remains to be seen. Therefore, the current cost of PTA is relatively volatile, supply and demand may be relatively balanced in the short term, the terminal situation is favorable, and most importantly, market sentiment is high. Coupled with the drive of downstream futures varieties, the PTA market will fluctuate slightly on the strong side in the short term. The spot operating range is 3350-3500 yuan/ton. </p
