Market Profile
Opinion Strategy
Polyester products exploded after the National Day, especially the new polyester staple fiber futures The variety has soared, opening at 5,400 yuan/ton. After multiple daily limits, it closed at 6,596 yuan/ton as of October 19 in just one week, an increase of 22%! Prices of other textile fibers also rose, with cotton, cotton yarn and staple fiber all rebounding sharply, while PTA started rising slowly, suggesting a compensatory increase. For the short fiber market, it can be said that it is the result of the superposition of various factors. The unexpected improvement in terminal orders and the tight spot industry structure, coupled with the emotional promotion of speculative funds, have created this unexpected but reasonable wave of market trends. rise. At present, polyester inventory has been significantly depleted, especially short-term polyester inventory. Some manufacturers even have 20-30 days of shortages.
In terms of PTA, Xinfengming’s new 2.2 million-ton PTA device is expected to be 50% operational in the near future, and supply pressure has increased. Although there is a slight destocking this month and the improvement of terminals, However, the pressure on supply and high inventory is still great, and it is difficult to see a significant trend increase. Generally speaking, the center of gravity of prices has shifted slightly upward.
As for MEG, prices rose significantly last week, and traders on the floor actively followed up with buying orders. However, in mid-week, the EU decided to impose restrictions on ethylene glycol from the United States and Saudi Arabia. News of the anti-dumping investigation triggered concerns about oversupply, and MEG prices fell. In terms of new devices, two sets of 800,000-ton capacity devices in Shanxi Woneng and Sinochem Quanzhou have been successfully put into operation, and the current operating rate is gradually increasing; it is expected that the 1.1 million-ton device in Zhongke Zhanhua and Xinjiang Tianye will also be put into operation at the end of October, with new production capacity added this year. The growth rate has reached 35%, and the inventory pressure at ethylene glycol ports is still high. We need to be alert to the risk of correction in the near future and pay attention to the 4000 resistance level.
Main risk points
The second outbreak of the epidemic triggered a surge in downstream demand Decline, upward transmission compression of raw material profits.
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